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Optimal Same-Game NFL Parlay Picks for Monday Night Football | Patriots vs. Bills

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Monday Night Football features a battle near the top of the AFC standings between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills, which is a perfect opportunity to use OddsShopper to build some NFL Parlay Picks. Using this fantastic site can help place smart wagers in an easy-to-use fashion and maximize the ROI on the wagers. It is truly betting made simple since you can find the best bet in 30 seconds or less.

Patriots vs. Bills Same-Game NFL Parlay Picks

The first step is finding which sport you are going to wager on, so the banner at the top of the screen has the sports separated. Once you are on the NFL page, it is super simple to customize what you are looking for as far as teams and players on the left-hand side of the page.

Now, if you miss one of the odds highlighted in the article because it changed, do not worry. The lines do not always stay the same as they are updated every two minutes. There will be examples of when you can still wager based on the Awesemo projections. It is also easy to sort the props by what style you want to bet them, meaning that you can choose the highest ROI or the highest expected win rate.

Generally, the best approach is a mix of the highest ROI and expected win rate, and this whole process should take under 30 seconds to filter what you are looking for. The highlighted wagers in the article can also be bet individually, so if the parlay misses by one leg, it is not a total loss. Let’s find out what the best-projected bets are for Monday Night Football and build some NFL parlay picks.

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Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Receptions

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a long history of neutralizing the opposing team’s No.1 option, and Diggs is certainly that for Buffalo. He is eighth in targets (101), 19th in routes run (31.6 per game) and seventh in receptions (6.1 per game). His target share for Buffalo is 25.3%, which is 16th in the league, while Buffalo is eighth in pass attempts per game (38). The individual matchup is not the easiest against J.C. Jackson as he has allowed just a 53.2% completion rate, but this number is just too low for Diggs. OddsShopper has an expected win rate of 61% on this number, and for what it is worth, Diggs recorded six and nine receptions last year against this team.

Jakobi Meyers Over 39.5 Yards Receiving

This wager is a little different depending on which sportsbook it is being placed at. No sportsbook has it higher than 41.5 yards, and OddsShopper has Meyers projected at 53.2 yards with an expected win rate of 64%. The Bills lost cornerback Tre’Davious White to injury on Thanksgiving, and that will have ripple effects through the secondary. Meyers has run 50% of his routes from the slot this year, and he leads the Patriots in target share (23.8%). Meyers is also 15th in the league in targets (90), and he is averaging 51.8 yards receiving per game. Buffalo’s defense has been fantastic and ranks first in total DVOA, but one way New England will move the ball is with Meyers.


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Gabriel Davis Over 10.5 Yards Receiving

Davis is far from a household name, but he is averaging over 28 yards per game this season despite playing only 36.5% of the snaps for Buffalo. Davis only sees an average of 2.5 targets per game, but his aDOT is 12.5 yards, which is 22nd in the league. He also is 17th in yards run per route (2.36) and fourth in yards per reception at 18.4 yards. New England is fourth in yards per attempt given up, but Davis only needs one reception to pass this wager, and OddsShopper has him at an expected win rate of 63%.

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Buffalo Bills Moneyline

One of the highest expected win rates in this game from OddsShopper is 67%, and it is for the Bills to walk away with the win. The Awesemo Parlay Calculator shows a +955 return if all four legs hit, which would be a strong play. The Bills have been wildly inconsistent this season, as has most of the NFL. Even with the loss of White, the defense ranks first in total DVOA, fourth in DVOA against the run and first in DVOA against the pass. Both teams rank first and second in points per game allowed, but Buffalo is facing a rookie quarterback who is on the road. With both teams averaging over 28 points per game, Mac Jones facing the Buffalo defense could be the fact that pushes the Bills over the top.

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