Even though the NBA Conference Semifinals have been underway for nearly a week, it has officially gotten serious. With Philadelphia and Dallas finally getting off the schneid last night, all eight of the remaining playoff teams now have at least one win. Despite the 76ers and Mavericks victories, they still trail 2-1 to the Heat and Suns, respectively. So, who will go up two 2-1 in their series tonight?
Boston heads out to Milwaukee for two games after evening the series with a huge 109-86 victory on Tuesday as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for 59 points. Meanwhile, Golden State returns to San Francisco, looking to take the lead in its series against Memphis once again. The Warriors won Game 1 in Memphis, but the Grizzlies bounced back in Game 2 behind 47 points from Ja Morant. Both teams will be missing key role players, with Gary Payton II (elbow) and Andre Iguodala (neck) out for the Warriors and Dillon Brooks (suspension) out for the Grizzlies. Brooks was suspended for Game 3 after a hard and “dirty” foul caused Payton’s injury.
The home team is 32-21 during the playoffs.
This daily NBA article will examine the best betting picks and NBA player prop bets today. With OddsShopper, bettors can maximize their profits and see the best chances with the highest expected return on investment. OddsShopper can find which sportsbooks offer the best prices for these prop bets. The following are the six best NBA bets for May 7.
Best NBA Bets and Player Props Today
Bucks Moneyline Over Celtics: Over 212.5 Points
Expect a very entertaining, hard-fought close game here. In reality, the squads are very similar, with each club having two primetime scorers and both having the capability to be nasty on the defensive end. The teams have split their six games this year, though only half of them have finished with less than a 10-point deficit. While Khris Middleton remains out, there is good news on the injury front for both teams, with Marcus Smart (thigh) and George Hill (abdomen) expected to play. Smart missed the Celtics’ Game 2 victory, though Hill has not played since April 8. Hill’s potential return aides the Bucks offensively and gives them more of a depth advantage over the Celtics. ABC will broadcast the game with tipoff slated for 3:30 p.m. ET.
The teams have had three days to prepare. Three-point shooting, turnovers, defensive rebounding and which of the teams’ duos show out are the keys to the game. OddsShopper gives the Bucks a 54% chance of winning the game.
Milwaukee has been superb on the defensive end this postseason, although the Bucks will have to defend the 3-point line better today. The Celtics have made 38 treys, while making them at a 40% clip against the Bucks over the first two games, with Brown, Tatum and Grant Wiliams accounting for 26 of them. Tatum has been excellent all season though Brown had struggled from deep before Game 2, where he went 6-of-10 from long distance. Smart has struggled shooting the ball during the playoffs thus far.
Milwaukee has, surprisingly, struggled offensively since the regular season ended. Granted, the loss of Middleton and not having Hill available hurts. The Celtics have done an excellent job defensively on Giannis Antetokounmpo. Still, he has produced 54 points and 22 rebounds, and 19 assists over the first two games of the series. Giannis loves to play at home, and he does generally respond in a big way following a Bucks loss. But, Jrue Holiday does need to be more efficient.
OddsShopper loves the over here with a 58% of it hitting and a 10% ROI. Boston has been much more efficient on the road offensively this year than at home, and the Bucks were ranked in the top 10 of the league in offensive efficiency during the regular season. Moreover, both teams have increased their offensive production following three days off, with the Bucks averaging over 119 points and the Celtics averaging 115 points. Furthermore, the average score at Fiserv Forum has been over 224 points, with each of the Bucks’ last two games totaling at least 216 points. The over is 8-3 in the previous 11 meetings between the two squads, including hitting in each of the last six meetings in Milwaukee.
Grizzlies Spread (+7.5) Over Warriors
While Golden State is expected to win tonight, with OddsShopper giving them a 69% chance of doing just that, the point spread seems too high. The Warriors are 3-0 at home during the postseason with a plus-8.6 scoring margin, and they have won 34 of 44 games at the Chase Center this year. However, Memphis has been excellent on the road since the all-star break, which includes winning two of its last three playoff games. Plus, the Warriors have yet to find a defensive answer for Morant. Morant has tossed in an incredible 81 points through the first two games on 46.8% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from the 3-point line. He also has grabbed 17 rebounds and doled out 18 assists against the Warriors thus far. Overall, Morant has scored 29 or more points in four of his five appearances versus the Dubs this year.
Moreover, each of the last two games has been extremely exciting and close. So, there is no reason to expect any difference here. The loss of Brooks and Payton hurts both teams, but Brooks did only play three minutes in Game 2. In addition, each of Golden State’s last five playoff games has been decided by seven or fewer points. Similarly, four of the Grizzlies’ previous five postseason contests have been decided by five or fewer points. OddsShopper gives the Grizzlies a 53% chance of covering with an expected ROI of 5%.
Robert Williams Over 7.6 Points
After missing nearly a month of action, Williams has slowly worked his way back. He has 47 minutes of court time against the Bucks despite dealing with foul trouble, up from the 25 minutes he saw in the final two games of the Nets series. Williams had 10 points in Game 2 on 4-of-5 shooting and has totaled 16 points on 11 shots in the series. Williams, projected for nine points today, was dominant against the Bucks during the regular season as he averaged a double-double over three contests. OddsShopper gives the over a 60% chance of hitting with an expected ROI of 15%.
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Other Top NBA Bets Today
- Jaylen Brown Over 5.5 Rebounds
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- Brook Lopez Under 5.5 Rebounds
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