MLB DFS Deep Dive for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, July 15

PITCHERS

James Paxton [L – NYY]

Paxton has been all over the map this season, but he’s excelled in the spots where it matters. For example, Paxton boasts a 28.9 percent K-rate and 13.9 percent swinging strike rate. He still owns a 35-plus percent whiffs/swing rate on his cutter (38.7%) and curve (35.7%), while generating 27 percent whiffs/swing on his 96 MPH four-seamer. Paxton has struggled with right-handed power at times, but the Rays rank 27th in ISO vs. LHP (.156) and are bottom 10 in both wOBA (.311) and wRC+ (96). Moreover, Tampa Bay’s active roster is striking out at the league’s eighth highest clip vs. southpaws (23.6%).

There are some concerns regarding Paxton’s performance since being activated from the injured list as detailed in this FanGraphs article by Jake Mailhot, but most of these issues are baked into his price tag. Paxton recorded 17.1 percent swinging strikes in his last start (vs. TB) and still owns a 13.7 percent swinging strike rate in eight starts since being activated. 

Paxton isn’t necessarily producing up to expectations, but he’s also not priced to his ceiling, either. He’s weighing in at $9,300 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel and $44 on Yahoo, and is a -142 favorite at home where the Rays own the second lowest implied run total (3.9) on the slate. Paxton will carry heavy ownership on Monday, but it’s hard to ignore a near 30 percent K-rate when he’s significantly cheaper than many of tonight’s top-tier pitchers. He also draws a high-upside matchup against the same Rays team he mowed down for 11 K’s last week.

Blake Snell [L – TB]

Snell presents a ton of risk against the power-packed Yankees who recently got Luke Voit back in the lineup. He does, however, offer some upside in this matchup, as New York’s active roster surprisingly ranks in the bottom half of baseball in wOBA (.320), ISO (.178) and wRC+ (99). Their 22.8 percent K-rate is the league’s 13th highest mark, thanks to high strikeout percentages from Gary Sanchez (34.8), Gleyber Torres (30.4), Aaron Judge (26.3) and Aaron Hicks (25.0).

This is still a dangerous spot for Snell, whose unpredictability on the mound only compounds our concerns. That  said, he’s dirt cheap on Yahoo ($38) and still isn’t priced at his ceiling on FanDuel ($9,400). Despite all of the uncertainty, we’re still talking about a pitcher who leads the entire slate in K-rate (32.8%), swinging strike rate (17.9%) and called plus swinging strike rate (34.7%) on the year. 

Jakob Junis [R – KC]

Chicago recently passed San Diego for the highest K-rate vs. right-handed arms (25.6%), which positions Junis nicely on Monday. The White Sox active roster ranks 24th in wOBA (.310), 27th in ISO (.158) and 20th in wRC+ (94) vs. righties, and walks at a league-low 6.3 percent clip.

Junis is striking both-handed hitters out around 21 percent this season, which is right below the league average mark. His strikeout totals should be boosted by the premier matchup, though, and his high HR/9 rate should be mitigated by Chicago’s general lack of power. Junis will be one of tonight’s most popular pitchers across the industry with two sub-par arms going at Coors Field forcing expensive bats into lineups. He’s $7,200 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel and $33 on Yahoo, freeing up ample cap space for high-end hitters. The only problem here is there will be an incredible amount of overlap with Junis, Rockies bats and the next pitcher on our list… 

Joe Musgrove [R – PIT]

Musgrove is routinely a chalk option at pitcher due to his price tag rarely rising above $6K on DraftKings. That’ll be the case again tonight, as he sits at $5,800 in a road matchup with the Cardinals, who have been absolutely dismal against right-handed pitching in 2019. On the season, St. Louis ranks an unbelievable 28th in wOBA (.299), 29th in ISO (.138) and 29th in wRC+ (84) vs. RHP, while striking out at the league’s 10th highest clip (23.8%). They’ll likely have six righties in the lineup tonight, which bodes well for Musgrove and his 23.6 percent K-rate vs. same-handed bats. 

Musgrove has predictably performed markedly better vs. righties, holding them to a .273 wOBA, .156 ISO and 0.96 HR/9 with a 1.07 WHIP across 225 batters faced. It’s no surprise he’ll be one of the most popular pitchers on DraftKings on a night where Coors Field bats will be in very high demand.

Rick Porcello [R – BOS]

Porcello never makes for an enjoyable ride, but a dirt cheap price tags thrusts him into play. At $6,300 on DraftKings and $35 on Yahoo there isn’t much risk associated with rostering Porcello against the Blue Jays, who own a top seven K-rate vs. RHP (24.3%) and rank bottom eight in both wOBA (.306) and wRC+ (90). Toronto does possess some power (.190 ISO), but they largely struggle to get runners on base and should allow Porcello to pitch relatively deep into tonight’s start.

We can’t pretend Porcello has been a quality pitcher this season, but he’s at least gone 6-plus innings in 11 of his last 14 starts, and is a massive home favorite (-177) against Trent Thornton and the Jays. He’s also fared much better vs. right-handed hitters, too, and should face five of them on Monday. Ultimately, Porcello’s value is derived almost entirely from his dirt cheap price tag, not because we’re confident in his ability to carve through opposing offenses.

Honorable Mention: Clayton Kershaw [L – LAD] @ PHI

HITTERS

STACKS

Rockies vs. Rodriguez [RHP]

We don’t have a total for this game yet, as the Rockies and Giants will be playing a doubleheader on Monday. It’s hard to believe Colorado won’t be at or above seven runs against Dereck Rodriguez, though. Rodriguez owns a career 17 percent K-rate and a 1.44 WHIP, which won’t play well for him at Coors. He’s also served up 46.9 percent hard contact outside of San Francisco with a whopping 26 percent line drives allowed. Colorado is easily the top stack to own on Monday night.

Giants @ Gonzalez [RHP]

It looks like Chi Chi Gonzalez will start for the Rockies in the second game of a home doubleheader with the Giants. Gonzalez has been fantastic is preventing home runs vs. LHH, but he owns a miserable 10.9 percent K-rate, and 5.18 xFIP across his short career. It’s hard to imagine the Giants won’t have an implied run total well above six tonight, and most of them are reasonably priced given their lack of overall talent.

Dodgers (5.5) @ Eflin [RHP]

The Dodgers draw a great park shift in Philadelphia tonight, and face a homer-prone righty in Zach Eflin with temperatures hovering around 87 degrees. Eflin is allowing a whopping 2.28 HR/9 to lefties this season with fewer than 20 percent strikeouts and a 5.31 xFIP. Los Angeles has a slew of talented lefties scattered throughout their lineup, and recently got Corey Seager back from the injured list. Eflin is in for a world of hurt.

Braves (5) @ Houser [RHP]

Atlanta makes for a great leverage stack tonight, owning the sixth highest top stack probability (6.6%) and the 16th highest projected ownership (2.1%) against Adrian Houser. They’ll be hitting inside the homer-happy Miller Park, and boast more than enough power to beat up on the very pedestrian Houser. Lefties have fared much better vs. Houser than righties, though, which isn’t great for the righty-heavy Braves.

Honorable Mention: CLE (6.2) vs. Norris [LHP]; BOS (6.1) vs. Thornton [RHP]