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Spotlight Hitters KBO DFS Picks on DraftKings + FanDuel | Sunday July 05

Terry McBride



Terry McBride's reviews Awesemo's projections looking for top hitters, stacks, and low-owned plays for tonight's (6/04/20) KBO DFS slate.

Well, sometimes just being awake isn’t everything. The pitching side of things doomed most of my entries last night, with some of the chalkier starters really letting down a lot of lineups that were on the money stack-wise. Tomorrow’s another day of KBO DFS though, on and on we grind. Happy 4th of July, I hope you’re celebrating by staying home and keeping safe. Maybe watch a classic summer movie like Jaws instead and be happy to not be at the beach for multiple reasons.

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With two 10-run games on the board from the Heroes and Giants to go along with the Twins delivering and the Dinos coming up huge in a low-owned spot, there were a lot of quality KBO DFS picks on the hitting side of things. The top of the lineup delivered in style for the Heroes and the Giants got balanced contributions up and down the lineup in the two biggest games. The Dinos game featured three home runs from prominent hitters, making it a key to accessing the top of GPP standings last night.

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At a glance, tonight’s weather is agreeable, and we shouldn’t have to concern ourselves prior to lock. The totals are up in a few spots and there are some pitchers we can attack with bats on the slate tonight, so there should be plenty of offense to go around once again. Hopefully the pitching we get to along the way helps out a bit more than last night’s slate.

The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.

As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.

With lock still hours away (4:00 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.

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Hanwha Eagles @ Doosan Bears – 10.0 run total (4.08/6.18) – Suggested Stack(s): Bears 1-2-3-4-6

The Eagles beat up Bears starter Chris Flexen for six last night, because baseball is an amazing game. The top of the lineup did most of the damage for the Eagles with a succession of base hits and no big knock. The Bears completely dropped the ball for KBO DFS owners who went their way. Odds-makers know better than to be influenced by a single game, however, and the totals are once again showing us a poor spot for the Eagles and a quality spot for the Bears.

With serviceable KBO veteran Hui-kwan Yu on the mound the Eagles are barely cracking the 4 run implied total mark and they rank last in Awesemo’s stack tool tonight. This team made some roster moves coming into Sunday, but there’s nothing to get excited about. The top half of the order is where you want to focus, a three-man of Jin-hae Choi ($5/$3,500), Tae-Kyun Kim ($7/$3,700), and Kwang-min Song ($9/$3,600) grabs you the top bats in this lineup with reasonable chances for correlation and low cost and ownership. It’s not the spot for me, but if you’re feeling it good luck. The top two hitters in the projected lineup would be a simple way to fill out to a full stack if you’re looking for a particularly masochistic way to celebrate our nation’s birthday.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me… but I’m still going to play you again tonight. The Bears have let KBO DFS owners down two days in a row in prime spots, but they look almost as good here tonight. The ownership is on them at around the same levels it has been, and they rank second in stacks again tonight. This is a spot I want to get right back to. I love how the key bats in the Bears lineup fit with some of the other teams on the slate and I think there are opportunities to get to oddball constructions while utilizing key Bears bats. Kun-woo Park ($13/$4,400) seems over his recent ailments but it wouldn’t shock me to see him sit tonight just given his recent fragility, keep an eye out. If he’s in he’s a strong play from the top of this lineup, but he’ll be chalky. Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17/$6,100) looks like a quality pay-up spot again today, with the price keeping the popularity in check again. Jae-won Oh ($7/$2,400) is an inexpensive and therefore interesting piece of this stack later in the lineup. He can help to differentiate your constructions in limited usage, although he’s not wildly unpopular himself. His .834 OPS on the season with 4 home runs and 20 RBIs looks strong, but it’s well ahead of his career clip in all but the most recent year (2018) in which the KBO allegedly “juiced” baseballs, so keep your expectations in check.

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Kia Tigers @ NC Dinos – 9.0 run total (4.39/4.80) – Suggested Stack(s): Tigers 1-5 (DraftKings) /  Dinos 3-6 (FanDuel)

The Dinos broke loose against one of South Korea’s better starters last night in a low-owned spot that was excellent for KBO DFS players who managed to land on it while also getting the right pitchers in. With home runs from Sung-bum Na, Suk-min Park, and Hee-dong Kwon the Dinos were in business early and often in a 9-2 romp.

Implied totals are on the lower side for both squads in this one. The Tigers are facing Mike Wright tonight. Wright has had his issues this season and is walking far too many hitters while striking out too few. His 4.95 FIP next to a 3.70 earned run average tells us what we need to know, he’s been benefitting from defense and luck. We don’t necessarily want to target him here based just on this, but that’s informative against a quality lineup when making pitching decisions. The Tigers bats rank in the bottom half of stacks but could just as easily land fourth with the minimal difference in probability of success. With their extremely low ownership factored in it could be sharp to push up above public exposures on the Tigers lineup, which won’t be difficult with everyone projected for under 10% exposure. The easy names here remain the same, Tucker, Choi and Ji-wan Na make a high-quality three-man. Min-sang Yoo ($7/$3,200) connects well to them and there’s enough pop in Ho-ryeong Kim’s ($10/$3,700) to make him appealing from the six-spot. This team offers appeal at a few mandatory positions on DraftKings with quality bats at extreme low exposures, broadening the appeal here for me.

Yeah, but can you do that to Aaron Brooks, Dinos? That’s the question NC will be trying to answer as they face the Tigers’ import ace tonight. With a FIP and ERA both below the 3.00 mak and sitting eighth in the KBO with a 23.1% strikeout rate there’s a lot to like about Brooks on most nights, but this is a tough lineup for any pitcher. The Dinos sit in the middle of the stack tool in that same group of teams with minimal separation from one another. The ownership edge is there as well, given the popularity of the opposing starter. In much the same way it paid off last night, if these bats roll again today this is going to be a must own. Eui-ji Yang ($13/$6,100) at 12% ownership on DraftKings is the lowest I remember seeing him. He’s a star catcher who can hit anyone on a site that requires you to play a catcher, act accordingly in your Dinos stacks. Aaron Altherr ($16/$5,200) in the five spot is the right move for this batting order and I hope they stick with it. Myung-gi Lee ($9/$3,000) should be back atop the lineup tonight after a day off and he makes a quality table-setter. Jin-sung Kang ($15/$4,300) and Suk-min Park ($10/$4,600) should not be neglected in the later part of the lineup when you’re building with this team, don’t forget them.

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LG Twins @ Samsung Lions – 9.5 run total (4.99/4.71) – Suggested Stack(s): Twins 1-5

The Lions keep on making noise and they got on the nerves of a lot of KBO DFS players on DraftKings last night by keeping LG starter Chan-gyu Lim from delivering the necessary points for GPP success. The matchup tonight is another contest between two teams with implied totals below five with two quality pitchers on taking the hill.

The Twins offer quality most nights and the same holds true today. Their place in the top stack tool is bolstered by their general talent and perhaps the illusory nature of the opposing starter’s current success. The FIP a full run higher than his ERA at 4.94 is telling about young Lions starter Chae-heung Choi, he’s been getting away with a bit this season. His 10% walk rate on the year suggests there should be regression coming and some potential opportunity in the making for the Twins. These bats are playable on both sites, but the ownership looks favorable on FanDuel. Eun-sung Chae ($13/$3,000) has moved down in the lineup to hit behind Ramos in a great spot and his price is too low. Keun-woo Jeong ($7/$2,900) is back in the lineup and projected to hit second, if other people skip him it makes sense to get him into some of your builds, less so if he’s hitting late in the order. Ji-hwan Oh ($9/$3,600) drops to near the bottom of the lineup but he could be useful if you need a shortstop and a wrap-around option for the Twins stack.

The Lions delivered in a similar spot last night. The opposing pitcher here is going to be justifiably popular again but the public is on them at about the right distribution, making it a questionable play in my book. The Lions rank next to last in the stack tool and I don’t consider them as good an option as the other teams in that grouping that we already touched on. The bats to get to here start up top with Sang-su Kim ($8/$4,800) and continue straight through projected fifth hitter Seong-gon Lee ($5/$2,600) while Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$3,100) remains a great way to differentiate this stack. Won-seok Lee ($8/$3,800) still stands out as a guy in the middle of this lineup not getting the price or attention he merits. The .265/.349/.429 slash isn’t the most amazing but with five home runs and 37 RBI on the year he’s been productive for KBO DFS owners and you could argue that he’s a touch off pace in the power department so far, suggesting there could be more to give.

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SK Wyverns @ Lotte Giants – 9.5 run total (4.66/5.03) – Suggested Stack(s): Giants 2-3-4

Last night was a 10-4 romp that was mostly dominated by the Giants and the outburst from the top of their lineup. The first three hitters in the Giants order each drove in two runs and their sixth hitter hit a solo shot as part of the effort, making this a productive but not explosive stack. The Wyverns only managed to answer with home runs from Jamie Romak and Tae-in Choi.

The Wyverns draw a bit closer in the implied total tonight, but at well under 5-runs I’m not sure it’s anything we want too much of in stacks. As much as the Tigers and Dinos were ranked a few spots low but could easily be higher, this team ranks fourth but could easily be seventh in the stack tool. It’s a matter of higher quality bats against good pitching in those or the matchup of lower end hitters against a weaker starter in this one. The bats to like in the Wyverns order haven’t changed much, although projected two-hitter Jun-hyeok Oh ($5/$2,500) is a very cheap option if he’s hitting in that spot. Romak and Choi, there I said their names. I would use those two in most of these stacks despite the chalkiness and then build three-mans with Oh, Tae-in Chae ($5/$2,400) and Kang-min Kim ($7/$3,200) in some rotation. You can stretch this to very inexpensive full stacks as well, but watch out for this one in optimizers, some of this pricing may result in more distribution than you’re looking for, so be sure to control your exposures.

Facing one of the better South Korean strikeout artists in Jong-hoon Park – yeah that guy with the insane submarine delivery again – the Giants come way down in the stack rankings tonight and don’t look nearly as good as yesterday’s spot. Chi-hong An ($9/$3,200) bounced back down this lineup last night, but remains a quality option from most spots. If hitting late in the lineup takes people off him, I don’t mind getting there when I use these guys. Dae-ho Lee ($10/$3,800) rarely seems owned enough to me and slugger Jun-woo Jeon ($12/$4,100) looks good in both my home run model and Awesemo’s projections once again. The spot isn’t great and there’s not a ton of ownership room to speak of in the current projections but keep an eye on things opening up here. Park is a good strikeout pitcher but a good lineup can get to him.

Kiwoom Heroes @ KT Wiz – 11.0 run total (5.90/5.34) – Suggested Stack(s): Wiz 1-5 (KIW top-ranked on both sites however)

And now for the big game on the slate. If you weren’t watching the ESPN game, these two played an entertaining contest until the Heroes dropped five runs on the Wiz bullpen in the last two innings to swipe a 10-6 victory that was closer than the score indicates. The Wiz bullpen has been nothing short of atrocious all season and has to be factored in when considering opposing lineups against this team.

The big 11-run total in this one is the largest on the slate by a full run. The Heroes are pulling the higher implied team total but odds-makers like both teams to plate runs in a bit of a shootout, rather than the lopsided high-total games we’ve seen in other matchups recently. There could be a game-stack in play here if you find a good one, but it’s never my build of choice. The Heroes bats are high quality, leadoff hitter Keong-chang Seo ($10/$4,600) usually does things driving the ball in the gap and running but he showed off his power with a home run last night and is always a great option atop this lineup. The Byung-ho Park ($14/$4,700) and Dong-won Park ($9/$5,500) show could be one to tune in for with their power on any given night. Hye-sung Kim ($9/$3,400) doesn’t have the worst projection, but he is too popular by far on DraftKings at 34% ownership, I don’t care that we must play a shortstop on that site. Kim has neither the track record nor spot in the projected bating order to justify that much popularity and leaving him out of a stack on that site could be enough to differentiate a GPP winner.

The lineup that the Wiz posted going into the game last night was interesting at a glance with Yong-ho Jo back up top and Jeong-Dae Bae ($10/$3,000) hitting sixth behind catcher Sun-woo Jang ($8/$3,200), creating some interesting combinations and opportunities that paid off well for KBO DFS owners. I like Bae and Jang on most slates, if they hit in that same spot in the order together, they make a compelling part of a stack once again here. I don’t think we see Jo at the top of the lineup again, but if he’s there he’s playable. Mel Rojas Jr. ($17/$6,200) is pricey but draws a great projection and ranking in my home run model, and Baek-ho Kang ($16/$5,400) should be a staple of Wiz stacks until his popularity comes up. This team ranks among the top few stacks and will be slightly under-owned accordingly to the early run of ownership projections, they could be a ripe for KBO DFS picks once again.

Favorite KBO DFS Stack: Doosan Bears

HR Call: Eui-ji Yang (NC Dinos)

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Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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