MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Under Owned Braves (May 3)

With the NBA Playoffs in the background, we’ve got a nine-game MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.

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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, May 3

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MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher

Royals-Rangers: Brady Singer

Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 10.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,100

With nine games on tonight’s slate, there are plenty of quality pitching options across every price point. As such, ownership is pretty spread out, with seven pitchers projected to be over 15% owned. Tanner Bibee is expected to be the highest-owned arm, and considering his $8,500 price tag in a pristine matchup with the Angels, it makes sense. On the opposite end of the spectrum lies Royals right-hander Brady Singer, and the Royals right-hander is getting completely forgotten about on DraftKings.

Singer’s lack of high-end strikeout upside limits his ceiling as a DFS commodity, but he comes into tonight in really good form, averaging 18.5 DraftKings points per game. Prior to this season, Singer always had solid stuff, but his overall inconsistencies halted him from ever putting it all together. In 2024, however, the 27-year-old has undoubtedly enjoyed his strongest start to any season, with a 2.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 34 strikeouts and 13 walks across 34.1 innings. Though it should be noted that Singer’s expected numbers call for some negative regression, he’s getting dismissed by the field as if that regression were guaranteed to come tonight.

As of this writing, Singer is far and away the top leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. Though he is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 10.5% of the time this slate plays out, only 1.0% of lineups are projected to roster him.

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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack

Braves-Dodgers: Braves

Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 9.9%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 1.2%

It’s rare to see the top overall stack on the board also come in with leverage, but that’s how the cookie crumbles today, with the Braves emerging as not only the top overall stack, but also the top contrarian stack on DraftKings. Similar to the pitchers, ownership on stacks is projected to be very spread out. There isn’t a single team pulling double-digit ownership as a stack on DraftKings. While that leaves us with plenty of contrarian options to choose from, Atlanta clearly has the highest upside of any team on the board.

Much of the reason the Braves are projected to be under-owned tonight is because of their hefty price tags. Combine expensive prices with a team that has recently underperformed, and it’s no surprise the masses aren’t running to the Braves on DraftKings. While it’s true that this offense has left much to be desired this season, Atlanta’s offense is still full of proven DFS commodities, and it’s only a matter of time that this lineup starts to click. Players like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson have started the season slowly, but both have shown signs recently, and I’d much rather be too early than too late on players of this caliber.

Atlanta is currently the top overall team in Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool and is projected to be the top stack 9.9% of the time this slate plays out, but only 7.0% of the field expected to stack them.

Stokastic runs over some of the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for daily fantasy baseball lineups like one...

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Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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