Friday’s loaded MLB DFS slate features 11 games, with the Coors Field matchup between the Mets and Rockies postponed by rain which is forecast to turn into late May snow in the evening. The remaining games offer an interesting mix of mid-range mostly left-handed pitchers at a variety of prices and recent runs of performance but seem to lack any true aces. The hitting slate on the other side has several interesting spots for stacking against the lower-end pitchers on the board, but the overall power index is lacking in clear extreme upside spots for home runs against the litany of southpaws, and individual player totals are somewhat down, despite the climbing game totals around the league. There are plenty of MLB DFS picks to spread out ownership shares without taking on significant negative leverage on the large slate, and with many of the pitching options rating similarly, it makes sense to focus on stacking and hitter combinations, while fitting in pitchers for salary and upside.
Best MLB DFS Tournament Strategy & Picks Today
Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 2.06
Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 11.28
Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu — 11.12
Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto — 10.96
Cleveland Guardians: Franmil Reyes — 15.31
Colorado Rockies: Kris Bryant — 8.24
Detroit Tigers: Jonathan Schoop — 7.88
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 9.93
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 3.79
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani — 9.84
Los Angeles Dodgers: Will Smith — 3.33
Milwaukee Brewers: Rowdy Tellez — 10.20
Minnesota Twins: Carlos Correa — 7.75
New York Mets: Eduardo Escobar — 5.18
New York Yankees: Anthony Rizzo — 7.18
Oakland Athletics: Seth Brown — 10.10
Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 7.63
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 12.71
San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt — 7.91
Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodriguez — 8.03
Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 9.14
Texas Rangers: Brad Miller — 9.75
Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 6.58
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 10.18
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
The weather forecast for the Friday slate has taken the Coors Field game off of the board. Outside of a minor drizzle in New York, the forecast looks relatively safe for the remaining games, with decent hitting conditions around the country.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The Friday slate is an interesting mixed bag of pitchers that does not quite reach the top of the quality hill. There will surely be several standout performances, and there are good pitchers available for a number of teams, but with Robbie Ray struggling to find his form, there is a lack of an apex starter on either FanDuel or DraftKings tonight. Ray lands third on the probability board, behind expensive Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes, who is pushing the thresholds of belief and salary with every dazzling start he makes, and Padres lefty Sean Manaea. Between the two, Cortes is the one who comes with positive leverage, albeit in a tough matchup against the White Sox. From further down the board, the Astros will have converted multi-inning power reliever Cristian Javier on the mound again, while Tarik Skubal will be looking to continue his excellent run of quality against the Guardians in Cleveland, and Eric Lauer is pricey in a home start against the Nationals. The leverage on Skubal is appealing, he is the top-ranked pitcher with a strong leverage score, Cortes is closer to efficient ownership. The remaining options on the board all have their warts in the form of struggles, matchups, or general lack of talent, but there are many positively leveraged arms from which to select an SP2 on DraftKings or roll the dice on a low-cost starter who buys hitting upgrades on the one-pitcher site. Options from the lower tiers of salary include Chase Silseth who is dramatically over-exposed, Luis Castillo, who is searching for his form on the way back from injury, and both Ranger Suarez and Martin Perez in very difficult situations against the Dodgers and Astros respectively.
The Padres have gotten a lot from lefty Sean Manaea to start the season. Over his first seven starts and 43 innings, Manaea has a 28.7% strikeout rate which is a step up from the 25.7% he posted in 179.1 innings in a strong year last season. He has a 3.22 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP that are both also improvements from last year, and his rate of inducing swinging strikes is up to 13.4%, more than a point higher than it was last season. Manaea has yielded premium contact when hitters manage to connect, opponents have generated a 41.8% hard-hit percentage and an 8.2% barrel rate against the southpaw, but he has given up just a 2.87 % home run rate so far this year. Manaea has thrown at least six innings in all but one of his starts this season, he reliably pitches deep into games and is a capable strikeout option who leads the slate by probability on both sites, but who also comes at significant negative leverage marks across the industry. Manaea will be facing stiff opposition in this one as well, this is no sure thing in a matchup against a Giants active roster that plays platoon games and overloads their lineup with quality right-handed bats against lefty pitching. Manaea’s opponents have a collective .168 ISO that sits eighth in baseball in the split and their 3.28% home run rate ranks ninth. San Francisco has struck out at a 19th ranked 23.7% rate against southpaws this season, supporting the notion that Manaea can find his strikeout ceiling in this matchup, but the team has also created runs five percent ahead of the curve in the split against lefties this year. Manaea is a great option in a vacuum, but undercutting the field slightly across 150 lineups for tournament play in favor of positively leveraged starters with similar outlooks is a strong approach.
Young Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal has been impressive through his first 39.2 innings in seven starts this year, following up a strong debut season that had a few quality contact nits to be picked. Skubal struck out 25.9% while pitching to a 4.06 xFIP over 149.1 innings as a rookie last year, but he yielded a 45.1% hard-hit percentage with a 13.9% barrel rate that opponents turned into home runs at an ugly 5.52% rate. This season, Skubal has allowed just a 1.25% home run rate over the first 159 hitters he has faced. The lefty has cut his hard-hit percentage to 35.8% and barrels to just 5.7% while also inducing more swinging strikes at 12.6% compared to last year’s 11.4% and striking out hitters at an increased 28.3% rate. Skubal has been excellent but he remains at a fair price and he is projected for positive leverage and low raw ownership totals on both sites. Skubal has outpitched the $9,500 salary at which he lands from site to site, he has a 2.72 xFIP this season and he will be owned below five percent across the MLB DFS industry. The lefty is facing a tough opponent on name recognition and overall numbers, but the Guardians have done much of their quality work against righties this season. In the split against left-handed pitching, Cleveland’s active roster has just a .096 ISO, the 28th-ranked mark for power in the league. Their 1.93% home run rate ranks just 23rd and, while they do limit strikeouts to just 19.6%, the team’s 27th-ranked collective WRC+ sits 18% below average in the split. Cleveland is targetable with a pitcher of Skubal’s talent and strikeout acumen, he is a sneaky-strong option on this slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. It would make sense to draw minor shares of Cleveland hedge stacks to guard against the potential that Skubal slips into last year’s contact profile for a night, but the favored spot to stack chips is on the talented lefty pitcher.
Another lefty is lurking as the dark shadow under the waves on this slate in the form of Robbie Ray. The Mariners’ nominal ace has struggled with his form after a career year in Toronto last season. Ray has been covered in this space several times this season for his inflated walk rate and decreased strikeout numbers, a trend that has continued since last we looked. In 2021, Ray made 32 starts and pitched to a 3.36 xFIP with a 32.1% strikeout rate and a career-low 6.9% walk percentage. The walks were the most noteworthy aspect of his performance, Ray had previously been a highly regarded strikeout pitcher, but one who always came with blowup potential and a double-digit walk rate. The improvement made the southpaw a Cy Young Award winner, but he has not maintained it in 2022. So far this season, Ray has walked 9.0% of opposing hitters while striking out just 25%. He has induced a 14.9% swinging-strike rate that is good by comparison to the average but is also down by nearly a point from last year’s numbers. Ray has always allowed premium contact when hitters connect, this year’s 42.3% hard-hit percentage and 8.5% barrel rate are in line with expectations for this pitcher, who needs to succeed with his control and throw strikes to be valuable. Ray had a 29.6% CSW% last season, this year he is down to just a 26.3%, and his struggles have been ongoing. Ray has 19 strikeouts over 11.2 innings in his last two starts against the Phillies and Mets, but he also walked five and gave up seven earned runs in that stint. Overall, the lefty has been slightly better than his 4.62 ERA, his 3.84 xFIP is slightly more appealing and suggests there may be more of a return to form inbound. Ray is facing a Red Sox team that has flatlined against lefties so far this season, which may help his cause. The Boston active roster has a .096 ISO and a 0.99% home run rate against lefties, the 28th and 29th ranked marks among baseball’s 30 teams. They have struck out at a 23.8% clip while creating runs 18% worse than average in the split, which makes them look a lot like the Guardians but without the ability to limit strikeouts. Ray is negatively leveraged on both sites from the third spot on the probability scale, but his overall popularity is not out of control, he is playable at or around the field’s mid-twenties mark on DraftKings and even beyond the 11.5% popularity projection on FanDuel if playing low-end value pitchers is not within one’s risk profile.
The Brewers are at home for a game against the Nationals, another team that has struggled for power against southpaws this year. The Washington active roster has a .081 ISO and a 0.73% home run rate in the split, both are baseball’s worst by a wide margin. The team has created runs 13% worse than average, but they put the ball in play at a high rate with just a 17.2% strikeout rate in the split, the second-best mark on the board. With a total lack of power or run creation ability against him, however, lefty starter Eric Lauer appears to be in an excellent spot to succeed. Lauer has dominated so far this season, pitching to a 35.5% strikeout rate with a 2.52 xFIP and a 0.98 WHIP over 34.2 innings in six starts. The lefty has induced a 14.2% swinging-strike rate while compiling a 29.6% CSW%. Lauer has yielded premium contact when hitters are able to touch the ball, so far this year he has an inflated 44.4% hard-hit percentage and an 11.1% barrel rate, up from last year’s 36.8% hard-hit and 8.2% barrel rate. Lauer’s lousy contact profile has translated into a 5.07% home run rate so far, the one blemish on his otherwise sterling stat line. Lauer comes at a fair price and reasonably playable popularity, though slightly negative leverage. He is a fine option for at or around the field’s ownership across the industry tonight, if he finds a few bonus strikeouts against the low-end Nationals’ lineup he could be in line for a big score.
The final featured player on a long list of lefty starters is Yankees hurler Nestor Cortes Jr. The left-handed riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a mustache continues to dazzle, he has a 32.5% strikeout rate over his 40 innings in seven starts despite a lack of premium stuff or velocity. In a strange year for pitching, Cortes has already posted three starts of more than 50 points using FanDuel scoring, with a fourth over 40. The lefty has a high ceiling and a relatively sturdy floor, even in a matchup against a White Sox roster that has been excellent in all aspects against lefties. Cortes threw eight innings of three-hit ball while allowing one earned run and striking out seven in cruising to a win and a quality start bonus against this team in his last outing, but overall the White Sox have limited strikeouts to a sixth-best 19.4% rate in the split while creating runs 18% better than average. Cortes is not necessarily safe, despite his ongoing success and his recent dominance of what will be a similar version of the Chicago lineup. His opponents have been good for power in the split against lefties as well, Chicago has a .149 ISO that sits 14th in baseball, but their 3.31% home run rate ranks seventh in the split and they have several premium right-handed bats in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. With the perceived tough matchup and a price that has risen all the way to $10,600 on DraftKings and $10,200 on FanDuel, Cortes is going under-owned across the industry once again. The lefty has a 2.78 xFIP to go with his excellent strikeout rate, he has walked 7.3% but has an excellent 0.85 WHIP while yielding a 6.6% barrel rate. Cortes has allowed a 39.6% hard-hit percentage and a 17-degree average launch angle, so there have been some near misses, but the crafty lefty manages to get by time and again, building up a sample that is now both noteworthy and reliable in extending quality back through last season. Cortes lands at positive leverage on DraftKings and he is at single-digit ownership on the FanDuel slate, he makes for a fine play on either site.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are on the road in Philadelphia to face Ranger Suarez, yet another lefty starter on this slate. Suarez was a standout young arm who pitched to a 25.6% strikeout rate over 12 starts and 106 total innings last season, but he has scuffled out of the gate so far this year. The southpaw has struck out just 17.6% while walking 8.2% and yielding a 1.38 WHIP. Suarez has induced just a 7.7% swinging-strike rate, down from a sharp 11.3% last season, though his contact profile has remained sturdy. So far he has allowed just a 33.3% hard-hit percentage and an 8.5% barrel rate, with an 8.5-degree average launch angle, though all of that is worse than last year’s performance to this point. In 2021, Suarez yielded just a 31.1% hard-hit percentage with a 2.6% barrel rate on a 4.4-degree average launch angle, combining strikeout upside and an ability to suppress offense in dynamite fashion. The lefty is currently more of a target for sequencing and run creation than power, but this Dodgers lineup can get to him from either angle, making them an appealing stack from near the top of the probability column at positive leverage. Mookie Betts is slashing .262/.352/.482 with a .220 ISO while creating runs 41% better than average atop the Dodgers lineup, he is owned well below 10% on both sites. Superstar first baseman Freddie Freeman is nearly untouched in a misperceived bad matchup against a lefty. Freeman will be just fine in this outing, he deserves far more than the under two percent popularity across the industry, he is slashing .302/.413/.491 while creating runs 63% better than average against same-handed pitching this season. Shortstop Trea Turner, catcher Will Smith, and third baseman Justin Turner make up a strong center for Dodgers stacks. All three key right-handed hitters will be owned at well under 10% on both sites, while landing at fair pricing. Justin Turner is too cheap at $2,900 on FanDuel, but he is projected for just 2.9% popularity. Smith is an interesting consideration on the blue site as well, premium catchers tend to go overlooked where their position is not a requirement. The back of the Dodgers lineup could be the top four for most teams in the league. The projected batting order includes Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, and Hanser Alberto, with Gavin Lux likely to sit against a lefty. The Dodgers are under-owned on both sites, they should be a target stack unless the leverage situation swings dramatically.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are facing Boston righty Michael Wacha and they rank reasonably well for probability and popularity on FanDuel while coming up as a somewhat negatively leveraged strong value stack on DraftKings. Wacha has just a 19% strikeout rate this season and he has walked 11% of opposing hitters while pitching to a 4.23 xFIP. He has not yielded a massive amount of premium contact and he is a serviceable veteran righty, but he seems likely to give up plenty of contact and balls in play to a quality lineup that is affordable with pockets of targetable low ownership. On the DraftKings slate, every Mariners hitter is priced below the $4,200 mark at which we find third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who should be hitting fifth in the lineup tonight. Suarez is drawing just a 6.5% ownership projection on that site, and he comes up as a 10.9% popular play for just $3,000 with added shortstop eligibility on FanDuel. Suarez has hit seven home runs with a .228 ISO while creating runs 28% better than average this season, he can be played industrywide. Adam Frazier, Ty France, and J.P. Crawford make for a quality top three in the lineup leading up to the third baseman. France and Crawford are creating runs 64% and 54% better than average respectively, and Frazier is a quality leadoff play for correlated scoring from the left side of the plate. Jesse Winker has struggled to just a .221/.319/.314 triple-slash to start his Seattle career, but he hit 24 home runs in 485 plate appearances while slashing .305/.394/.556 with a .251 ISO last year, bet on the return to form. Rookie Julio Rodriguez is extremely interesting for just $3,200 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel. On the blue site, Rodriguez is pulling in just a 3.9% ownership projection, he is the third-most-popular Mariners bat at 12.2% on DraftKings, trailing only France and Winker. The rookie has hit three home runs and stolen 11 bases in just 153 plate appearances, creating runs 14% better than average while making hard contact 48.4% of the time, he will be an even stronger MLB DFS option as his power emerges. First baseman Mike Ford is drawing a decent power projection from the left side, he is a better late lineup option than Steven Souza Jr. or Cal Raleigh.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Nationals will have limited starter Erick Fedde on the mound but rest assured, the extra “k” is not for strikeouts upside. Fedde has managed a 21.3% strikeout rate this season in 34 innings, he was at a 21.7% rate over last year’s 133.1 and he yields too many opportunities for a pitcher who allows contact. Fedde has a 1.50 WHIP this year, he has walked 12% of opposing hitters and he has a 44% hard-hit percentage with a seven percent barrel rate. The righty is a target for bats, but the Brewers are not drawing significant attention. The team has dipped in price on the DraftKings slate, they were overpriced with six hitters above $5,000 in recent contests, this version of the stack is far more affordable, but the field has not taken notice. The Brewers are projected for a high point of just 7.4% popularity, and that is for leadoff hitter Kolten Wong. On FanDuel, Wong is one of several players drawing mid-teens popularity at discounted prices. The blue site has Luis Urias carrying three-position eligibility in the infield for just $2,900 despite the player’s 142 WRC+ with a .294/.403/.431 triple-slash over his first 62 plate appearances. Urias hit 23 home runs and had a .196 ISO while creating runs 11% better than average over 570 plate appearances last year, he is underpriced on the FanDuel slate, but he is drawing 13.9% popularity. Urias joins Christian Yelich at around 6.5% popularity on DraftKings for a higher price, Yelich is a $5,200 outfielder on the rise. The former MVP is slashing .237/.335/..422 with a .185 ISO and he has created runs 17% better than average while hitting five home runs this season. While those numbers are up and down for quality, Yelich is sitting at a massive 53% hard-hit percentage with a 16% barrel rate and a launch angle approaching his former quality, the upside is coming. Andrew McCutchen is back in the lineup adding quality to the middle from the right side of the plate, he should be hitting ahead of breakout slugger Rowdy Tellez on the left and power-packed Hunter Renfroe from the right. That duo has 17 combined home runs so far and leads into playable catcher Omar Narvaez, with Lorenzo Cain and Jace Peterson rounding out the bottom of the batting order. The Brewers are drawing strong power marks in the home run model today, they look like a quality target for around the field’s ownership, but they may draw more attention later in the day.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are the latest team to gain a boost by facing the lousy Orioles pitching staff, though the now spacious outfield in Baltimore is wreaking havoc on the power upside in the park in many cases. Tampa Bay will be facing righty Tyler Wells, who has pitched 28 innings over seven starts with just a 16.2% strikeout rate and a 4.35 xFIP. Wells has given up a 35.5% hard-hit percentage and an 8.6% barrel rate so far this season, and he was even more targetable for power and premium contact out of the bullpen last year. In 57 relief innings in 2021, Wells had a 29% strikeout rate but allowed a 41.1% hard-hit percentage and an 11% barrel rate. Tampa Bay has not been great for quality against righties so far this season, the active roster has just a .142 ISO and a 24.6% strikeout rate with a 2.76% home run rate. The Rays have created runs just one percent better than average in the split, but this looks like an excellent opportunity to push those numbers up the board.
Multi-position infielder Yandy Diaz is leading off in the confirmed Rays lineup, he is a fairly different play from site to site tonight. On DraftKings, Diaz costs $4,900 and he is drawing just 4.8% popularity, while he is a 10.6% popular play for just $2,800 with the same first and third base eligibility on the blue site. Diaz is slashing .287/.412/.398 while creating runs 54% better than average over 131 plate appearances this year, he is an excellent leadoff option for correlated scoring. Diaz has hit three home runs this year, he had 13 in 541 plate appearances last year, so he is capable of infrequent individual scoring as a one-off as well.
Young star Wander Franco has a 41.8% hard-hit rate but just a 6.0% barrel rate this season, but he puts everything in play. Franco has a spectacular 9.7% strikeout rate with just a 3.9% walk rate, he is almost always making contact of some sort. Adding Franco’s quality behind Diaz’ own 9.2% strikeout rate and 16% walk rate makes for a lethal one-two punch atop this lineup, it is very difficult to get out of the first inning without some risk of damage against this team. Franco is slashing .272/297/.429 with four home runs and he has created runs 14% better than average this season, he is unpopular at $5,200 on DraftKings and he is too cheap at $3,300 on FanDuel, though that price does make him the most expensive Rays bat on this slate, another strong attribute this stack has going for it tonight.
Harold Ramirez has been featured in this space several times in the early part of the season, he is an underappreciated premium contact option with sneaky power who always checks in for low ownership and a fair price. Ramirez is slashing .321/.372/.372 and creating runs 29% better than average over his first 86 plate appearances while making hard contact 52.2% of the time. For just $3,000 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel he is a terrific option in the outfield in all formats when hitting third in this lineup.
First baseman Ji-man Choi is almost never popular in MLB DFS contests. The slugger has made 80 plate appearances this season, slashing .279/.388/.441 and creating runs 51% better than average, though he has hit just two home runs to this point. Choi has a 47.6% hard-hit rate and an excellent 14.3% barrel rate this year, but he is the first weak spot in the lineup for strikeouts with an aggressive 32.5% rate. Choi walks at a 15% clip though, he remains a quality option for both individual and correlated scoring.
Outfielder Randy Arozarena has hit two home runs and stolen six bases in his first 152 plate appearances after a 20-20 season in 604 opportunities last year. The young outfielder has not been making great contact, he has just a 37.3% hard-hit rate and a 3.9% barrel rate, but he is a strong “any given slate” option at low cost and less than five percent popularity on both sites. Arozarena has a team-leading home run mark in this matchup, he should be more popular at these low prices when stacking Rays bats.
Lefty outfielder Kevin Kiermaier has hit four home runs and has a .178 ISO but he has created runs 11% worse than average over his first 96 plate appearances this season. The outfielder is fine for a few shares for correlation in the six spot in this lineup, but he is primarily a defensive player at this point in his career. The four home runs already match Kiermaier’s total over 390 plate appearances last year, he has a 38.1% hard-hit rate and a 9.5% barrel rate while striking out 28.1% of the time, he is one of the less-than-likely dart throw plays in this lineup.
Isaac Paredes has eligibility at second and third base on DraftKings for $3,100, and he lands as a $2,000 shortstop on FanDuel. Paredes made 85 plate appearances at the Major League level last season, slashing .208/.306/.319 with one home run last year, this year he is slashing .280/.280/.560 with two home runs and a .280 ISO. Parades is more highly regarded for his hit tool than his power, but he is a reasonably capable bat who has reached the low teens in a few hundred minor league plate appearances in a few seasons, he is not a terrible play for excellent savings.
Catcher Mike Zunino is one of the primary all-or-nothing bats in the league. Zunino is striking out at a 37.2% rate so far this season but the rest of his usual attributes are coming up short. The slugging catcher has hit just three home runs in 86 plate appearances with a .150 ISO and a WRC+ 51% below average. He has made hard contact just 40.8% of the time with an 8.2% barrel rate, all of which are uncharacteristic. Last year, Zunino walked 9.1% of the time and he had a 46.5% hard-hit percentage with a league-leading 24.3% barrel rate, though his 375 plate appearance total did not qualify for the leaderboard. Zunino translated that premium contact into 33 home runs in the limited opportunities last year, he is always worth the late lineup dart throw for MLB DFS.
Post-hype lefty outfielder Brett Phillips was once regarded as a potentially intriguing power and speed option, he was somewhat frisky as a reclamation project in 292 plate appearances last year. Phillips hit 13 home runs and stole 14 bases in that sample while slashing .202/.297/.415 with a .213 ISO and creating runs at league average. The wide range of outcomes for MLB DFS relevant events is actually quite valuable at the bottom of the lineup for just $2,800 on DraftKings and the minimum price on FanDuel, Phillips has hit four home runs and stolen four bases this year but he is slashing .197/.256/.380 and creating runs nine percent below average. He is as sneaky and variable as a wraparound play could possibly be on this slate.
Home Run Prediction Today: Manny Machado — San Diego Padres
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