The Saturday evening main slate is different from site to site, with FanDuel foregoing the second game of the Coors Field doubleheader between the Mets and Rockies and opting for a five-game slate, while the six-game DraftKings slate includes all of the available contests. With the best park in the league for hitting on the board on one site, the slate takes obviously different shapes in terms of standing on the Top Stacks Tool. As usual, the game in Denver is carrying a run total that sits significantly higher than the remaining games. The 10-run total is low for Coors Field in general but it still sits 1.5 runs higher than the Rays vs Orioles game, and 2.5 runs ahead of every other matchup on the board. Targeting Coors bats is always a strategic decision based on pricing and popularity, where they are available the Mets and Rockies will be popular, but not oppressively so, both lineups have pockets of low ownership and positive leverage into which shares can be placed to balance the over-exposed hitters, but undercutting the weight of public popularity in favor of a better spread to strong options with positive leverage is rarely a bad move. The remaining games feature targetable bats and a few premium arms to make up what looks like a very interesting MLB DFS slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle — 10.38
Colorado Rockies: Randal Grichuk — 8.70
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez — 10.62
Kansas City Royals: Andrew Benintendi — 5.52
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 7.68
Milwaukee Brewers: Hunter Renfroe — 12.27
Minnesota Twins: Jorge Polanco — 4.62
New York Mets: Francisco Lindor — 8.25
Oakland Athletics: Ramon Laureano — 4.40
Tampa Bay Rays: Harold Ramirez — 7.80
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 10.06
Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 7.78
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
The weather forecast looks clean from any risk of postponement. Temperatures are notably up on the East Coast, with the thermometer spiking into the mid-to-upper 80s for the first time this season. The game in Baltimore should be an interesting test for the park’s newly cavernous configurations, the impact of Baltimore’s summer weather is worth watching, to this point in the season the stadium has played completely differently for home run power, which was Baltimore’s goal, but if some of the pop does not come back with the warmer weather it may be safe to say they went too far in pushing back and, importantly, raising the height of the outfield wall.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The short Saturday slate features a few premium pitchers from which to choose, with both Brandon Woodruff and Justin Verlander on the mound for their respective teams. The pair of aces are in relatively good matchups as well, Woodruff is facing the Nationals while Verlander takes on the Rangers in a battle of Texas teams. Oakland’s Frankie Montas lands in the top spot on both DraftKings and FanDuel when sorting by the probability of success rating for each pitcher. The Athletics’ righty is facing the Angels and he sits at a better leverage score and lower raw ownership than Woodruff and Verlander on FanDuel while landing at a strong positive leverage score and half the ownership of his more famous peers atop the DraftKings board. Montas is going overlooked on a short slate of pitching, as is young Joe Ryan who lands fourth at positive leverage. Pairing Montas and Ryan, or even Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish would be an interesting approach to the DraftKings pitching slate. The remaining options on the slate are largely unproven young hurlers or aging pitchers who have long since proven they are rarely worth rostering for MLB DFS. Lefty Patrick Corbin is facing the Brewers, who are rating out for a fair amount of power in the matchup, and Jon Gray is borderline unplayable against a lethal Astros lineup when he lands at an $8,300 salary on DraftKings. Corbin at least comes at a $4,900 price tag, which could give him SP2 value in spite of the low probability of success. The primary focus should be on the top four options on the board, with thin shares of ownership distributed to any favored choices among the dregs.
One of the few bright spots for the Athletics, for however much longer he is on the roster before an inevitable trade, Frankie Montas has a 3.00 xFIP with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over his first eight starts and 49 innings this season. Montas is pitching to a strong 27.2% strikeout rate and he has walked just 6.7% while inducing a healthy 13.5% swinging-strike rate. Montas has been inducing an excellent chase rate this season, his arsenal features an excellent combination of pitches that dive off the table and play well with his high-velocity four-seamer. Montas has yielded a 39.1% hard-hit percentage and a 7.8% barrel rate so far this season, but just 88.8 mph of exit velocity on average. The righty posted similar numbers across 187 innings last season, he has made minor improvements in his contact metrics and his strikeout rate has jumped up from last season’s 26.6% mark. Montas is a strong play on most slates, tonight he is facing a tough Angels lineup, but he is under-owned for his quality. The Angels are not a pushover opponent by any means. The team’s active roster is baseball’s best for power and run creation against right-handed pitching so far this season. Los Angeles has a .201 ISO and a 4.21% home run rate in the split, pushing their league-leading 133 WRC+ against righties to the top of the board. The team does strike out at a significant clip, all that power has its costs, Los Angeles ranks 25th in the split with a 24.1% strikeout rate this year, which is the target for Montas. The hope is that he pitches through to the quality start while exploiting the team’s strikeout weakness. Montas has yielded just a 3.07% home run rate so far this year, he is good at keeping the ball in the yard despite the quality contact he can allow. Montas is the slate leader on both sites, he is 32.8% likely to be a top-two starter on DraftKings but his ownership projection sits at just 24.9% and he is at an excellent leverage score. On the single-pitcher FanDuel slate, Montas has a thinner lead over his peers, but he still tops the board at only a slightly negative leverage mark.
The Nationals’ top-heavy lineup is in Milwaukee to face Brandon Woodruff, one of the team’s elite right-handed starters. Woodruff is projected for significant popularity across the MLB DFS industry, which is warranted given the matchup and the starter’s numbers. The righty has posted a 28.9% strikeout rate with a 3.39 xFIP and a 13.7% swinging-strike rate over his first 33.2 innings in seven starts this season. Woodruff has yielded an inflated WHIP, he is currently sitting at a 1.37 mark with an 8.1% walk rate. A large amount of the WHIP issue, as well as Woodruff’s inflated 5.35 ERA, can be attributed to a .333 batting average on balls in play for opposing hitters so far this season, by most measures, the starter is just getting unlucky with some contact. Woodruff has yielded a 45.7% hard-hit rate with an 8.7% barrel rate, last year those numbers were 32.4% and 5.8%, there is likely a lot of small sample happenstance in play so far this year, but the contact numbers are worth monitoring as the season progresses, though there have been no major changes in the pitcher’s repertoire outside of a minor dip in curveball usage in favor of a few percentage points of increased changeup usage. The active roster for the Nationals has created runs one percent ahead of the curve against righties this season and they have limited strikeouts to a 10th-ranked 20.7% in the split, but they have been weak on power with just a .126 ISO and a 2.26% home run rate that rank 24th and 22nd respectively. This is a good target for a pitcher like Woodruff, but he is excessively popular and there is no leverage available on him. Rostering the starter around or somewhat below the field’s projected ownership is a reasonable play, landing at the same projected ownership as the public despite negative leverage is also reasonable with this pitcher in this spot and a lack of major upside options on the board.
At very similar ownership marks to Woodruff, Astros ace Justin Verlander is another obvious target on this small slate. Verlander is also at negative leverage from near the top of the board tonight, but he warrants attention in a quality matchup. The righty has made seven starts and pitched through 45.2 solid innings in his return, with a strikeout rate sitting at 25.3% and a 3.38 xFIP. Verlander has walked just 5.6% and he has a minuscule 0.68 WHIP, though he has induced just a 9.5% swinging-strike rate and compiled only a 24.8% CSW%. Verlander is, almost astonishingly, throwing essentially the exact same repertoire of pitches in the exact same manner he was prior to his injury and subsequent Tommy John Surgery. The righty’s fastball still sits around 95 mph on average and he unleashes it roughly 50% of the time, with his 87 mph slider as his primary second option. The slider is where some of the swing-and-miss has vanished, in 2019 the pitch had a 39.9% whiff rate, this year that has dropped to just 30.8%. Most criticisms of the excellent right-hander amount to nitpicking, Verlander is an excellent option who is worth his price on both DraftKings and FanDuel, for around the same ownership as the public. Offsetting shares to Montas and other under-owned targets is a viable approach to a slight undercut, but there are not many reasons to doubt the starter’s upside in a matchup against a Rangers active roster that has a 23.9% strikeout rate and just a .131 ISO against righties this season. Texas has managed a 10th-ranked 2.99% home run rate against righties, but they have created runs 11% worse than average in the split and do not offer much resistance to a starter of this caliber.
The field seems somewhat behind the curve on Twins starter Joe Ryan, who lands at fair ownership and positive leverage for a good price across the industry. Ryan is facing a Kansas City active roster that has a sixth-ranked 19.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season but has struggled in every other category. The Royals have a 24th-ranked .126 ISO and a 26th ranked 1.90% home run rate against righties this season. The team has created runs six percent below average in the split, they make for a good target for the young starter at relatively low popularity on this slate. Ryan costs $9,100 on the FanDuel slate where he will be owned between five and 10%. On the two-pitcher site, Ryan is pulling around 20% public popularity, he is a positively leveraged play on both sites and he is essentially alone on a quality tier below the three aces but above the Grays and Corbins of the world. Ryan has a 24.2% strikeout rate with a 4.32 xFIP and a 0.96 WHIP so far this season. The righty has induced an 11.5% swinging-strike rate and he has yielded only a 32.7% hard-hit percentage with a 7.1% barrel rate, amounting to an outstanding 2.01% home run rate. The highly regarded young starter threw 26.2 innings in five starts in a cup of coffee last season, posting a 30% strikeout rate in the short sample, and he was an absolutely elite strikeout arm who was at or above 35% at every stop in the minors while rising through the Tampa Bay system before landing in Minnesota last year. Ryan has a good chance of posting a slate-relevant MLB DFS score on both sites tonight, he should not be left on the table when he comes at positive leverage and prices that are inexpensive relative to his talent and potential ceiling.
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With Coors Field only on one site, the stacking opportunities and probabilities land in fairly different places between FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. Where the game is available, the Mets are drawing the most attention as by far the most likely team to post the night’s highest fantasy scoring totals. New York has a 17% chance of being the top stack, but they are drawing more than 25% ownership with a negative leverage score despite an equally strong value rating. The Rockies, meanwhile, are coming up less popular but still negatively leveraged. As is frequently the case, the hometown heroes will be lower-owned relative to where the field is pushing chips on the visiting club.
The Mets will be facing quality lefty Austin Gomber, which puts the team on the weaker side of platoon splits. So far this season, New York’s active roster ranks 12th with a .151 ISO and 18th with a 2.42% home run rate against southpaws. They have created runs one percent better than average in the split, but they also strike out at a 25th-ranked 26% rate against lefties. Gomber is not necessarily a pitching target because of those lackluster numbers, the lefty has just a 20.5% strikeout rate with a 3.73 xFIP over 39 innings in seven starts this season, but he is reasonably good at keeping the ball in the park historically. Gomber had a 33.5% hard-hit rate over 115.1 innings last season and he is sitting at a 36% rate this year, though that does come with a 9.9% barrel rate, slipping to a 3.84% home run rate. The Mets stack is over-owned relative to their chances of success, despite the fantastic hitting environment between the altitude and the gigantic ballpark’s dimensions, the team is facing a quality pitcher on a 45-degree night in Denver a day after a late May snowstorm, which may negate much of the upside. With every Mets bat pushing mid-teens to mid-20% ownership, an undercut is warranted. The targetable bats in the projected lineup include obvious names like Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, who is returning to the lineup after a brief absence for personal business, Francisco Lindor, and Peter Alonso. The four excellent options from the top of the lineup are all expensive and popular, additional bats like Mark Canha, J.D. Davis, and Eduardo Escobar add quality from the middle of the lineup down, and BABIP specialist Jeff McNeil is the type of player who can exploit Coors’ dimensions even on a bad weather day.
The Rockies will be facing Trevor Williams, a middling righty with a 22.1% strikeout rate over his first 15 innings this year. Williams had a 22.2% rate over 91 innings in 15 starts last season and he walked 7.7% of opposing hitters, far more than the current 2.9% rate he has reached this season. Despite the excellent rate of issuing free passes, Williams has an inflated 1.47 WHIP this season and he has compiled just a 25.7% CSW%, but he has been good at limiting premium contact with just a 35.3% hard-hit percentage and a 2.0% barrel rate, both of which were higher last season. Colorado’s active roster has been frisky against righties this season, and the team is returning star Kris Bryant from an extended injury absence tonight. The Rockies active roster has a .163 ISO and a 3.24% home run rate that rank ninth and seventh in the split, and they have limited strikeouts to just 21.7%, the 13th-best mark in baseball. The team has slipped for run creation against righties however, their WRC+ sits at just 92, eight percent below average. Targetable Rockies bats include Connor Joe, Bryant, who is leading the team with a 19.4% popularity projection, Charlie Blackmon, and slugger C.J. Cron, who has hit 10 home runs and has a .285 ISO while creating runs 57% better than average this season. Lefty Ryan McMahon is under-owned at below 10% popularity, which is true of everyone but Bryant and Cron, who is carrying a playable 11.2% projection. Stacking Rockies bats is an easy proposition at their prices and popularity, the bottom of the lineup features playable bats like Brendan Rodgers and Randal Grichuk who can help offset either concern as well.
Tampa Bay Rays
After battling into extra innings against the Orioles as last night’s featured stack, the Rays return to the top of the board in a matchup against Kyle Bradish on a steamy night in the Inner Harbor. The Rays are negatively leveraged as the top FanDuel team, but they should be playable on this slate as long as there is a focus on pairing them with less popular options in other spots in a lineup. On DraftKings, the team lands between the Mets and Rockies at the top of the list. They are negatively leveraged but that comes at easily playable individual ownership projections, and there is a skew to the slate with the Coors Field game pulling so much of the probability measure. For his part, Bradish has been good over his 21.1 innings, pitching to a 25.3% strikeout rate and a 3.44 xFIP, but he has yielded a 39.7% hard-hit rate and a 10.3% barrel rate that should play to Tampa Bay’s strengths. Rays bats to look for in stacks include a number of the options that were featured in this space yesterday, though the status of star shortstop Wander Franco is worth monitoring after he took a late bump last night. If Franco does not play there is a downgrade to the quality of this lineup, but their popularity would be likely to drop as well. Yandy Diaz and Harold Ramirez provide reliable right-handed contact and on-base acumen, they are both good individual plays and correlated scorers. Ramirez is cheap for his talent on both sites, he typically makes very good contact and the results tend to translate to sneaky MLB DFS performances. Ramirez has a 51.4% hard-hit rate with a 5.4% barrel rate over his first 91 plate appearances, he is not a major home run hitter, but he puts the ball in play at a significant clip. Ramirez is slashing .301/.352/.349 while creating runs 16% better than average and he costs just $3,200 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel. The top three hitters in the projected lineup have an average strikeout rate of just 9.7% so far this season, they are excellent at starting a game off by threatening the opposing pitcher, while the power follows in the form of Ji-man Choi, Randy Arozarena, and Mike Zunino from a few spots down the lineup. Zunino hit a home run last night after being highlighted for his ability to do just that, he is a good option for power any time he is in the lineup. Infielder Vidal Brujan is inexpensive and sneaky, as is toolsy Brett Phillips, from the bottom of the lineup, there are easy ways to offset pricing and popularity concerns when stacking valuable Rays bats in a good spot tonight.
On the other side of the same game, the Orioles might deserve more attention than usual given the good hitting conditions, a positive leverage score across the industry, and some exciting changes to their lineup. Baltimore will be facing lefty Jeffrey Springs, who should pitch through the first four or five innings before handing off to the bullpen if things go according to plan for Tampa Bay. Springs has a 25.3% strikeout rate and a 3.00 xFIP over his first 21.2 innings and three starts this season. The southpaw is on the board as a $4,000 pitcher on DraftKings, he is pulling in a 24.5% ownership share that can be targeted with bats in lineups that are not exploiting the starter’s value on the mound. Springs has been good at limiting premium contact this season, he has a 30.4% hard-hit percentage and a 3.6% barrel rate, and he induces swinging strikes at a 14.6% clip, this is not the most likely spot for Baltimore’s flawed lineup to succeed, but they are easily affordable and relatively unpopular from one site to the other tonight. Leadoff man Cedric Mullins II is the most popular Orioles bat on both sites, he is slashing .256/.318/.413 while creating runs 13% better than average with five home runs and seven stolen bases this year, following up a fantastic 30-30 campaign in 2021. Mullins is worth rostering with a price of just $4,800 on DraftKings, where he remains below 10% in popularity. At 19% ownership on FanDuel for a mere $3,300, he is still a prime target atop this lineup. Trey Mancini is finding his form, the slugger is slashing .298/.357/.397 and he has only hit three home runs with a .099 ISO, but he is creating runs 23% better than average and is a sturdy right-handed power hitter in the longterm. Switch-hitting Anthony Santander and righty Austin Hays make an excellent pairing for low prices and a general lack of popularity in the middle of the projected lineup, which also includes righty Ryan Mountcastle, who is likely to return tonight. Mountcastle would be a welcome addition, he has hit four home runs while slashing .268/.299/.402 over his first 117 plate appearances. Mountcastle’s return would only be overshadowed by the debut of ballyhooed Baltimore bat Adley Rutschman, baseball’s top prospect. The slugging catcher hit 23 home runs between double-A and triple-A last season, and he had three long balls over 53 plate appearances at the top minor league level already this year. Rutschman could be a sneaky backstop on tonight’s DraftKings slate, he is a quality right-handed bat to mix into Orioles stacks on both sites. Tyler Nevin and Chris Owings can be rostered sparingly at the bottom of the lineup, while Jorge Mateo is always a better consideration with his blazing speed, despite a lackluster hit tool and on-base skill.
The Brewers were going to be today’s featured stack at the outset of writing this article, but the team is sitting at inflated ownership and negative leverage, making them less than ideal for tournament play, which is the focus. Milwaukee is still a stellar option on this slate, they should be rostered aggressively in all formats in a matchup against Patrick Corbin. The veteran southpaw has yielded a 47.2% hard-hit percentage with a 9.6% barrel rate this season while striking out just 19.8% and walking 10.4% with a 4.40 xFIP. Corbin is yielding premium power grades to obvious Brewers bats including Kolten Wong, Luis Urias, and Christian Yelich, who is going under-owned on both sites for his cheap price. Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Renfroe in particular are both good right-handed options against a struggling lefty; Renfroe is one of today’s leading options for a home run. Tyrone Taylor is playable in spots, he joins underappreciated Keston Hiura late in the lineup. Hiura is slashing just .214/.298/.429 but he has hit three home runs and has a .214 ISO while creating runs seven percent better than average in his limited 47 plate appearance sample. The infielder has multi-position eligibility, a cheap price, and a bat that was one of baseball’s most highly regarded prospect tools just two years ago. Mike Brosseau can be mixed and matched into lineups for cheap righty power late in the lineup, while catcher Victor Caratini is an afterthought where the position is not required but very much in play where it is.
The Twins will not be unpopular in their matchup against Brad Keller, but they come at a slightly better overall total and leverage score than do the Brewers, and they were not written up already this week in this space, so they claim the featured spot. Keller is a contact-oriented righty who has just a 14.6% strikeout rate over his 43.2 innings in seven starts this season. He has pitched to a 3.93 xFIP with a 1.01 WHIP while walking just 5.3% of opposing hitters and he has a shiny 2.89 ERA that might trick the box score watching community into thinking he is good; he is not. Keller’s definable skill is in keeping the ball on the ground, he has a sturdy 51.1% ground ball rate this season, which is in line with his career average, but that average has not helped him be more than a starter with a career 4.52 xFIP and 4.83 SIERA, Keller remains a target for contact, sequencing, and even power against this Twins lineup.
Have you heard of Byron Buxton? The Twins superstar comes into every season with only one thing separating him from MVP Award contention, his health. When he is on the field, Buxton is as good as any star player in baseball, he has hit 11 home runs with a gargantuan .388 ISO while creating runs 73% better than average this season, which is why he is so popular at inflated prices. The outfielder costs $6,100 on DraftKings but he is still projected for roughly 15% popularity. He lands at nearly double that exposure for $4,100 on the blue site, but it seems almost foolish to roster this lineup without him in most cases.
Hit tool specialist Luis Arraez follows Buxton in the projected lineup and provides an immediate offset to price and popularity. Arraez is projected for below 10% popularity on DraftKings and a mid-teens number on FanDuel, he is cheap on both sites. The player has a general lack of individual upside, but he is a fine correlation play for MLB DFS purposes, particularly where home runs are less important. Arraez is slashing .313/.414/.394 but has just a .081 ISO and one home run. He has created runs 45% better than average in his spot near the top of this lineup, getting on base and scoring runs are Arraez’s primary attributes, he can be added to Twins stacks with gusto.
Shortstop Carlos Correa returned to this lineup this week, he remains under-priced and therefore somewhat popular, but he is always worthy of consideration. Correa is slashing .264/.336/.382 with just two home runs but he has created runs 16% better than average over his first 113 plate appearances this season. The shortstop has a 53.3% hard-hit rate and a 9.3% barrel rate as well, it is fair to expect more production sometime very soon. At fair costs and at worst mid-teens popularity he can be added to Twins stacks in any format.
Switch-hitting Jorge Polanco is another option in the infield for similarly reasonable prices and mid-teens to low-20s popularity from DraftKings to FanDuel. Polanco has hit four home runs and created runs 12% better than average while adding two stolen bases, but he has not hit for much power with just a .143 ISO this season.
Lefty slugger Max Kepler has hit five home runs while barreling the ball in 10.2% of his batted-ball events with a 40.8% hard-hit rate. Kepler is slashing .252/.355/.420 and he has created runs 32% better than average this season, he is an excellent addition to stacks for a minimal investment of salary and reasonably low ownership. Despite his ongoing quality, Kepler is pulling in just a 6.5% ownership projection for $3,600 on DraftKings and a 10.3% mark at $2,900 on FanDuel, he is too cheap to be this low owned.
Catcher Gary Sanchez still strikes out at a 30.2% clip, but he is making hard contact 48.6% of the time with an outstanding 17.1% barrel rate. Sanchez is paid to hit home runs, he has four in 116 plate appearances this season and he has created runs 23% better than average while mashing his way to a .229 ISO, everything else is secondary to the power. The backstop is projected for 10.2% popularity where his position is required, he is a very sneaky FanDuel option at just 5.4% popularity for $3,000, he belongs in more lineups and makes for a terrific addition to Twins stacks.
Infielder Gio Urshela became an overrated bat during his oddball tenure with the Yankees. Urshela hit a few home runs in pinstripes, but he is more of a defensive player in general, this season he is slashing .225/.291/.324 with a .099 ISO while creating runs 18% worse than average, though he has three home runs on his stat line. The Twins and MLB DFS gamers can do better in the long term, but Urshela is low-owned and low-cost, which makes him a mix-and-match piece in Minnesota stacks.
Ryan Jeffers and Gilberto Celestino round out a version of the projected lineup, Jeffers is the better option for MLB DFS purposes, he has hit three home runs with a .161 ISO but a 95 WRC+ in 97 plate appearances and he has an outstanding 17.2% barrel rate with a 41.4% hard-hit percentage. As sneaky bats go, if he is in the lineup, a $3,300 or $2,100 Jeffers as a second catcher play would be a total wildcard in Twins stacks.
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