The Wednesday midweek main slate features an interesting mix of pitchers with a limited number of premium arms and a wide mid-range. The slate includes several clear spots for power, but the Vegas board has limited game totals to nine or lower across the league tonight, with the Athletics – Braves, Yankees – Twins and Rockies – Giants games all landing on that tier. The balance of the board drops to a low point of just seven runs in the game between the Rangers and Guardians and the contest between the Mets and Padres, the two contests with some of the night’s better pitching options, and most teams on the slate are carrying implied totals between 3.5 and 4.0. There are a few concerning spots for weather on the slate as well, this is a night that will demand active attention on the weather news and any changes to lineups, as we saw just two days ago over-speculation can lead to an opportunity where a starter like Hunter Greene ends up dramatically under-owned because of fears of a postponement before going out to pitch seven electric innings and post a slate-winning MLB DFS score. While that is an outlier example that most gamers and experts thought was going to be a washout, the point remains strong for all things MLB DFS: chaos yields opportunity.
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Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna — 9.05
Baltimore Orioles: Austin Hays — 5.59
Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 12.33
Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 13.45
Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert — 5.31
Cleveland Guardians: Oscar Gonzalez — 5.87
Colorado Rockies: Brendan Rodgers — 5.06
Los Angeles Angels: Jo Adell — 6.17
Los Angeles Dodgers: Freddie Freeman — 8.59
Milwaukee Brewers: Hunter Renfroe — 9.65
Minnesota Twins: Carlos Correa — 10.68
New York Mets: Eduardo Escobar — 6.53
New York Yankees: Josh Donaldson — 10.12
Oakland Athletics: Seth Brown — 5.64
Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Castellanos — 5.59
San Diego Padres: Luke Voit — 5.59
San Francisco Giants: Joc Pederson — 4.56
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Gorman — 5.21
Tampa Bay Rays: Mike Zunino — 5.89
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 5.47
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
The weather looks ugly for several games on tonight’s slate. The most threatened contest appears to be the game between the Rangers and Guardians in Cleveland, the forecast is calling for a significant block of rain from shortly after game time into the early morning hours, a worse outlook than what scrapped this matchup two days ago. The weather in Baltimore looks playable, with rain arriving later in the evening there is a chance of a shortened contest, but it seems most likely that the game will play cleanly from end to end in humid warm conditions. Chicago has a significant amount of rain in the area, with the forecast showing ongoing precipitation throughout the afternoon and into the early evening before tapering off and turning into an overcast night. The game between the Dodgers and White Sox seems likely to play cleanly as well, though it could see a pre-game delay to align the start time with the end of the downpour.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The Wednesday main slate has a solid mid-range with only a few highlight arms at the very top of the board. On overall talent and track record, Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola is the best pitcher on the slate. The veteran righty draws the Brewers in what should be a game with a closed roof with rain in the Milwaukee area. Nola ranks near the top of the board on both sites, but he is a negatively leveraged play who requires differentiation considerations across a lineup. Nola ranks behind Red Sox righty Nathan Eovaldi and Padres southpaw Sean Manaea on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Manaea will be similarly popular while more of the field is projected to include Eovaldi in lineups on the blue site while all three options will be owned between 32 and 35% on DraftKings. At positive leverage, inexplicable and indefatigable Nestor Cortes continues his non-stop run of success for the Yankees as the highest-priced pitcher on the slate on both sites. Cortes is priced like an ace because he has pitched like one over the better part of a full season at this point. The lefty comes at a hefty price tag, but he provides instant differentiation in his matchup with the power-packed Twins. An abundance of quality fills out the mid-range from site to site, with options including Chris Bassitt, Alex Wood, Ian Anderson and Dane Dunning drawing the eye at a variety of price points and ownership projections. All of those starters, with the exception of Wood, will be positive leverage plays across the industry, mixing and matching them with a variety of stack combinations is the suggested approach, while dipping to the extreme value tier is only recommended for the bold, as options like Jordan Lyles, Tony Gonsolin and Corey Kluber are priced into the mid-range, leaving only the dregs at bargain-basement prices.
Over 66.2 innings in 11 starts, Phillies ace Aaron Nola has been largely excellent this season. The sleeper Cy Young Award candidate has a 30.2% strikeout rate with a 2.78 xFIP and a 0.93 WHIP this season, though his 3.92 ERA does not sit as nicely on the surface. Nola has walked only 3.8% of opposing hitters, he is excellent at limiting opportunities for sequencing and run creation, and he has the talent to both create strikeouts and limit power potential. The righty has yielded just a 35.9% hard-hit percentage with an 8.4% barrel rate this season, resulting in a 3.82% home run rate that is probably a bit high for the lack of premium contact. Nola costs $10,200 on FanDuel and just $9,400 on DraftKings, where he is projected to be deployed by a third of the field. Nola is worth the popularity, he has all the talent needed to succeed at the price on the blue site, let alone the discount across town. The projected ownership is not so outrageous as to be problematic, Nola can be rostered enthusiastically in this spot, even against a Brewers roster that has a fifth-ranked .178 ISO and 3.58% home run rate that sits fourth against righties this season. The Brewers strike out at a 23.5% clip, 22nd in the split and more than enough of a target for a pitcher of Nola’s talents.
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There is significant strikeout upside in facing the Angels’ flawed lineup. Even the two superstars are free swingers, with Shohei Ohtani sitting at a 24.9% strikeout rate this season and currently injured Mike Trout is at a 26.6% rate. Trout is unlikely to play tonight, after leaving last night’s game with groin tightness, leaving the Los Angeles lineup extremely thin and highly targetable. Overall, the Angels have a 26.4% strikeout rate that sits 29th in the game against righties, while much of the power apparent in their stat lines will take a hit if Trout is not active. Red Sox righty Nathan Eovaldi should be able to exploit the weak version of this lineup while finding a high number of strikeouts. Eovaldi has a 26% strikeout rate over his first 63.1 innings in 11 starts this year, and he was at a 25.5% rate over 182.1 innings last year. The veteran starter has pitched to a sharp 3.13 xFIP and a 3.41 ERA this season while inducing an excellent 13.4% swinging-strike rate and walking a mere 3.9%. The lone issue for the righty has been the home run ball, which can be fluky, but Eovaldi is yielding too much premium contact in general, he has allowed a 46.7% hard-hit rate with a 12.2% barrel rate this season, leading to an unsightly 6.20% home run percentage. If he can avoid serving up a long ball to Ohtani, Eovaldi seems like to post a strong start in this spot. The Red Sox starter is projected for ownership in the 35% range on DraftKings, where he somehow costs only $8,800, and about 20% popularity for $9,200 on FanDuel, where he is also arguably underpriced. While the leverage situation is on the wrong side of the line, it makes sense to roster Eovaldi at or around the field’s level in this matchup while getting different with bats.
Southpaw Sean Manaea is pitching at home in San Diego, taking on a Mets roster that has lacked power but has been well above average for run creation against lefties this season. The Mets have created runs 13% better than average in the split, but they have just a 2.55% home run rate and a .151 ISO, both 18th in baseball while striking out at a 14th-ranked 21.6% clip. Manaea has been excellent for his new team this season, he has a 27.1% strikeout rate through 62 innings that have seen the lefty pitch to a 3.46 xFIP and a 3.77 ERA. Manaea is good at inducing swing-and-miss, he has a 13.6% swinging-strike rate that is up from last season’s 12.3% mark. Despite allowing a 40.7% hard-hit rate and an 8.0% barrel rate, Manaea has limited home runs to just 3.19% this season, he allowed 3.32% last year on almost identical contact metrics, so there is little concern about any good bat-on-ball marks for opposing offenses. With the Mets featuring a few premium right-handed bats, Manaea is not entirely safe, but he has excelled this season and he can shut this team down over six or seven innings while chasing bonus points and racking up strikeouts. At $9,000 on DraftKings, Manaea is efficiently owned at or about the same levels as Nola and Eovaldi, but he is potentially underappreciated at his $10,000 price tag on the blue site, where he is pulling just a 12.3% popularity projection.
Easily the best target among the premium arms, Nestor Cortes is positively leveraged across the MLB DFS industry. Despite a track record of success that now spans 153 innings since he rejoined the Yankees last year, Cortes is pulling just a 2.8% ownership share at $11,000 on FanDuel and a 13.8% mark at $10,300 on DraftKings. The southpaw does not have the most amazing stuff in the world, but he is one of the trickiest pitchers in recent memory, baffling hitters with a mixed bag of release points, breaking balls, pace changes and more. Cortes is fun to watch and he posts premium start after premium start for MLB DFS purposes. The lefty has a 29.7% strikeout rate with a 3.08 xFIP and a sterling 1.50 ERA this season. He has allowed just a 6.1% walk rate and a 0.87 WHIP while limiting home runs to just 1.75% on 33.6% hard hits with a 4.1% barrel rate. Cortes has been terrific in every aspect of the game, and he is facing a Twins team that has not produced much power against southpaws this season. Minnesota’s active roster has just a 2.20% home run rate and a .126 ISO in the split against lefties while creating runs at exactly league average by collective WRC+. The team does rank eighth in the split, limiting strikeouts to just 19.6%, but Cortes is under-owned and comes in at a strong leverage score, he is worth the spend-up play.
The Reruns
Several of yesterday’s featured teams bounce right back to the top of the stacks board and warrant a brief mention once again. The Giants look like an excellent target for stacks against Antonio Senzatela, who has just an 8.5% strikeout rate with a 6.4% swinging-strike rate this season while pitching to a 4.58 xFIP and a 5.40 ERA. Senzatela is a juicy target for bats including Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, Joc Pederson and Brandon Crawford, while bolt-on options like Tommy La Stella can be added from atop the lineup at low ownership and a fair price. Evan Longoria and Luis Gonzalez are later lineup targets, while the bottom two spots in the projected batting order are less likely for MLB DFS purposes.
The Braves also look like an excellent stack for both potential upside and a lack of overwhelming ownership. The team checks in at efficient popularity; they are not over-owned, but they will not be entirely untouched by the public either, the matchup against Jared Koenig is far too good. Koenig is making his Major League debut this evening at age 28, but the southpaw may offer more upside than the typical late bloomer. Koenig was a former 35th-round pick in 2014 who did not play affiliated ball until being signed to a minor league deal just last year in 2021. He threw 121.1 innings for Oakland’s double-A affiliate last year, posting a 4.88 xFIP and a 3.26 ERA with a 19.8% strikeout rate. Those numbers are not awe-inspiring for a kid who is moving up several levels in class from that bumpy season, but he has pitched very well at triple-A this year. In eight starts, Koenig has a 29.5% strikeout rate and a 4.22 xFIP with a 2.21 ERA, numbers that come in the extremely hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. There is sneaky potential for the pitcher to land as a relevant low-owned option on the mound for his strikeout upside against the free-swinging Braves, but the team’s undeniable power against lefties seems more likely to win the matchup. Atlanta’s active roster has a league-leading .217 ISO with a 3.79% home run rate that sits fourth against lefties, and they have created runs 24% better than average. The Braves lineup is typically targetable from top to bottom, with options like Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna drawing popularity up top, while hitters including Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall, either of the team’s catchers and rookie Michael Harris II lurking at lower popularity and fair prices later in the lineup.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox will draw limited lefty Reid Detmers tonight. Despite his dazzling no hitter several weeks ago, Detmers remains a pitcher who is not fully ready for the Show. The lefty has just a 17.4% strikeout rate with a 4.64 xFIP and a 4.20 ERA. He has gotten by serviceably well so far, but his still-developing pitch mix needs work and he needs to induce better than an 8.9% swinging-strike rate to succeed at this level in the long term. Detmers has allowed a 3.93% home run rate with a 40.5% hard-hit percentage and an 8.4% barrel rate this year, and he is facing a Red Sox roster that sports a .179 ISO that sits eighth in the league against lefties. Boston strikes out at a 22.8% clip, but Detmers is more likely to allow contact and balls in play, which should play in Boston’s favor with the team currently sitting fourth creating runs 21% better than average in the split. Boston’s bats will be rostered by the field, but no one in the lineup is projected for more than 14% ownership from site to site tonight, putting everyone in the lineup on the table in both one-off and full-stack situations. Enrique Hernandez is a flawed leadoff man who has yet to lose the job, he can be included with limited expectations for correlated scoring despite his current 73 WRC+ and .273 on-base percentage. After the miscast leadoff man, the lineup picks up with Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Trevor Story offering as strong a foursome as any in baseball. All four hitters are priced above $5,000 on DraftKings where they will be owned between eight and 12%, they check in between $3,700 and $4,200 on FanDuel, where it is easier to include all four bats in the same lineup. Additional Red Sox targets from further down the lineup are Christian Arroyo, who may lead off, Alex Verdugo and slugger Bobby Dalbec.
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New York Yankees
Every now and then the homer play simply looks too good to not land in the featured spot for this Yankees fan. Without bias, the team simply looks loaded for bear from atop the Stacks Tool on both sites. The Yankees have a slate-leading stack score of 10.5 on FanDuel and they rank second on the DraftKings board. The team sits first overall by their probability of being the top-scoring stack on both sites, and they land at positive leverage on the DraftKings board while being efficiently owned and popular on the blue site. New York is facing reincarnated righty Chris Archer, who has an 18.6% strikeout rate and a 4.89 xFIP with just a 23.3% CSW% and a 9.6% swinging-strike rate this season. Archer has walked 9.9% and yielded a 41.3% hard-hit percentage with a 12.4% barrel rate and a 14.5-degree average launch angle this season, resulting in a 3.49% home run rate, he is targetable for run creation and power in this spot, particularly with a Yankees lineup that is back to form after some recent absences.
D.J. LeMahieu is the projected leadoff man in the Yankees lineup, the underpriced infielder is still carrying three-position eligibility on the blue site, where he pulls just 12% popularity. He will be even less popular at a fair price on DraftKings, where he can be placed at either second or third base. LeMahieu is scuffling with a .264/.354/.402 triple-slash and a .138 ISO but he has created runs 25% better than average and he is good for correlated scoring with his on-base acumen. The infielder puts the ball in play with regularity, he strikes out just 13.1% of the time and he gets on base at a strong clip supported by his 10.6% walk rate. Ahead of the Yankees’ power core, LeMahieu is always a good candidate for stacks.
If you aren’t familiar with Aaron Judge you should probably just delete tonight’s entries and have a nice dinner instead of playing MLB DFS. The superstar outfielder is earning his next contract in style, slashing .315/.385/.685 with a ludicrous 61.9% hard-hit percentage and an even more unfathomable 25.9% barrel rate that has translated into a league-leading 22 home runs in just 232 plate appearances. Judge has a titanic .369 ISO this season and he has created runs 102% better than average, which is why 20% of the field will include him in lineups on the blue site and 12.3% will roster him on DraftKings in spite of a $6,300 price. Judge is worth including even at those popularity marks, it is an easy play to offset ownership with combinations of players in the Yankees stack or in other lineup spots.
Anthony Rizzo is slashing just .213/.314/.487 after a hot start to the year. Rizzo has a strong hit tool; the front end of his line should bounce back while he hits for average power throughout the season. The lefty first baseman has hit 14 home runs and still has a .274 ISO while creating runs 29% better than average, so he has been far from inept even with the lackluster triple-slash. Rizzo strikes out just 17% of the time and walks at a 10% clip while generating a 40% hard-hit percentage and 10.6% barrel rate. At just $3,700 on FanDuel he can be rostered with around 15% of the field playing him, on DraftKings he is half as popular for a higher price.
With all-world slugger Giancarlo Stanton rejoining the lineup in recent days the Yankees’ power expectations spike significantly. Stanton hits everything hard, he has a 57.7% hard-hit percentage with a 24.3% barrel rate, numbers rivaled by Judge and very few others in baseball. Stanton has made 179 plate appearances and he has hit 12 home runs while slashing an excellent .280/.335/.528 and creating runs 45% better than average. He is an excellent addition to stacks, and he is too cheap at $3,500 on the FanDuel slate.
Another returning Yankees player brings additional right-handed thunder to the heart of the order, third baseman Josh Donaldson has hit just five home runs this season but he has been a major source of power upside throughout his career and his contact metrics are strong this season. Donaldson has a 44.3% hard-hit percentage and a 12.3% barrel rate. The home runs are inbound for a player who still has created runs 17% better than average despite the general slump in his hitting line. Donaldson can be included at single-digit ownership on DraftKings, he is inexpensive at just $3,000 on FanDuel but he will be popular on the blue site.
Switch-hitting outfielder Aaron Hicks has left a lot at the plate this season, he is slashing just .223/.351/.252 with a .029 ISO and only one home run. Hicks has stolen five bases, but he sits 11% below average for run creation despite the strong on-base skills. The outfielder has just a 31.1% hard-hit percentage and an almost invisible 0.9% barrel rate. We have witnessed far more power from Hicks, and he remains good at getting on base, but the lack of pop and correlated MLB DFS scoring are concerning in the long term. Hicks is playable on any given slate; he fits into the lineup with ease for a fair price and low single-digit popularity from site to site. If he comes through for a change, he will be a major source of differentiation in Yankees stacks.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa is mostly on this team for defense and his hit tool, which has amounted to just a .272/.321/.318 triple-slash thus far. Kiner-Falefa has stolen eight bases and hit no home runs, he has created runs 13% worse than average in his 190 plate appearances and he is largely a non-factor for MLB DFS outside of occasional run-scoring ability. The shortstop joins whichever of the Yankees catchers is in the lineup tonight as limited options from the bottom of the batting order. Both Kyle Higashioka and Jose Trevino are limited contributors who can infrequently hit one out of the park, they have more value where the position is required. Higashioka is the more interesting hitter of the pair, despite his lack of production overall. The backstop has a 56.3% hard-hit percentage and a 10.9% barrel rate but he has somehow still not hit a home run this season.
The interesting bat projected to land at the bottom of the lineup once again is lefty masher Joey Gallo. The outfielder is projected for 24% popularity for a very low $2,300 price on FanDuel, he is more interesting at just 4.8% ownership for $3,900 across town. Gallo has struggled mightily in New York, there is no way around that fact. The former home run hitter extraordinaire has just six long balls in 160 plate appearances while slashing .186/.288/.329 with a .143 ISO and a WRC+ 16% worse than average. Gallo has never been a good source of batting average, but it was perfectly acceptable for him to hit around the Mendoza line when he was blasting home runs with regularity and walking at nearly a 20% rate. This season Gallo has dropped to a still-good 12.5% walk rate, but he needs to get on base with much more regularity to deliver his expected value. Last season the slugger had a .351 on-base percentage and he created runs 23% better than average despite still hitting just .199 for the year. That version of the player needs to return soon, there are positives that support the notion that he will show up, including the 46.8% hard-hit percentage and 16.5% barrel rate that the outfielder is still sporting.
Home Run Prediction Today: Giancarlo Stanton — New York Yankees
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