Wednesday, Aug. 31, brings an even dozen games for the featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (8/31)
Main Slate: Seattle Mariners at LHP Tyler Alexander — 4.8 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is flagging Seattle as an above-average stack on Wednesday. The Mariners have been very effective against lefties this season, and they finally have all of their key contributors healthy at the same time. Tyler Alexander is far from a pushover, but he is not a shutdown pitcher either. Across 269 batters faced this season, Alexander has a pathetic 12.3% strikeout rate while allowing nearly a .200 ISO to opposite-handed hitters.
Most games, Seattle has three or four switch-hitters in its lineup, which allows it to create a variety of lineup iterations. Additionally, four of its best five batsmen are right-handers with excellent track records against lefties. Rookie Julio Rodriguez, former Cincinnati stalwart Eugenio Suarez and veterans Ty France and Mitch Haniger are the core four options in any full stack tonight. Catcher Cal Raleigh, Abraham Toro and smooth-hitting Carlos Santana are the switch-hitters that can be used to fill out mega-stacks, depending on their placement in the batting order.
Late Slate: Philadelphia Phillies at LHP Tommy Henry — 5.2 implied runs
Surprisingly, Tommy Henry allowed only one run in each of his last two starts, though he still issued four free passes. Walks have been his weak point, with a dozen in his 27.2 innings this season, and the 19 strikeouts leave him no margin for error. Henry is a fly-ball pitcher who lives on the edge, and he could easily cede multiple home run against a team like Philadelphia.
The Phillies have been a top-five squad for power and run-scoring efficiency against southpaws this season. That includes several key contributors missing significant time. Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto are the trio to target as core plays in all formats on all slates. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber can hold their own in lefty-lefty matchups, providing differentiation, and Jean Segura and Matt Vierling are solid salary savers.
Afternoon Slate: St. Louis Cardinals at LHP Mike Minor — 5.9 implied runs
Hoo Boy! This is a cherry matchup for a St. Louis squad that boasts a league-leading 144 wRC+ against lefties this season. It also has a collective .218 ISO and a paltry 18.0% strikeout rate while also walking 9.6% of the time. Mike Minor was a solid starter for the better part of a decade. However, the wheels have come off the wagon this year. In what is likely the end of the line, Minor has suffered a 6.10 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 15 starts lasting just 79.2 innings. He has five outings with multiple home runs allowed, and it would not be a shock to see the Redbirds get to him for a second time this season.
Albert Pujols has been stellar this season, with a .396 ISO against southpaws. On Monday, he blasted career home run 694, and he is just two behind Alex Rodriguez on the all-time list. The former three-time National League MVP has an outside chance of reaching the 700 club prior to the end of the season. Of course, rolling with Pujols means forgoing the services of Paul Goldschmidt on DraftKings. However, both can be employed on FanDuel with the utility slot in play.
Nolan Arenado has been wildly effective with the platoon advantage throughout his career, and he is an excellent building block this afternoon. Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill and Paul DeJong can be used to round out full stacks, and Tommy Edman is intriguing if the switch-hitter lands in the leadoff spot over Lars Nootbaar.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Gerrit Cole at Los Angeles Angels — 3.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,800 | FanDuel $11,100
Gerrit Cole has had some uneven performances over his last nine games. In this stretch, he has recorded 34 or more DraftKings points three times, 29 points once and then five sub-20 performances. The Angels have been above average with a 107 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but their active roster also leads the league with a 26.0% strikeout rate. Even better is the projected lineup for tonight having a two-year-trailing strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers sitting just over 27%. Cole has a 33.3% combined strikeout rate during this timeframe, and this gives him the mantle of top pitcher on Wednesday.
Secondary Target: RHP Kyle Wright vs. Colorado Rockies — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $10,900
This season, the Rockies are predictably bad on the road, but they are also a bottom-three team against right-handed pitching, with an 85 wRC+. That indicates they are creating runs 15% less efficiently than league average. To their credit, they have been judicious with swings and misses, and tonight’s projected lineup has a meager 20.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last season and change. Kyle Wright has been decent with a 24.0% combined strikeout rate, but his best attribute is limiting same-handed batsmen to an absurdly low .070 ISO. Atlanta is a -310 moneyline favorite to bring home the victory, and Wright should be the pitcher of record while also being a strong candidate to notch his 18th quality start of the season.
Wild Card: RHP Jacob deGrom vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,500 | FanDuel $12,000
Since returning from a shoulder issue, Jacob deGrom has been the best pitcher in the league. Across five starts, he has tallied 29.1 innings and an eye-popping 46 strikeouts on an incredibly efficient 78.6 pitches per game. So, why is he a wild card tonight? Well, according to the Stokastic Player Popularity Tool (FREE TODAY), the 34-year-old is looking like he will be the most popular pitcher on DraftKings at 56.8% and barely behind Cole on FanDuel, being represented on 27.9% of large-field tournament rosters. This season, the Dodgers have a league-leading 124 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with their elite .195 ISO coming in second behind the left-handed-heavy Brewers.
The leverage against the field is where the true variable comes into play. If deGrom struggles even a little and ends up with something in the 15- or 20-fantasy-point range on DraftKings, he could easily be surpassed by multiple pitchers. If he has a bad game, then he is going to hobble a wide swath of tournament lineups. For the bold, taking a couple Dodgers bats in the hopes of corralling a home run or two could provide even more of a fantasy-point swing, albeit one that is a longshot.
Additional Opportunities
Gerrit Cole should absolutely be a stalwart in our DFS lineups, but he makes for an interesting hedging option with his 8.5 strikeout prop for his matchup with the Angels. The Stokastic MLB Player Props Tool has him for 7.5 strikeouts and a 67% chance of failing to reach the eight strikeouts needed to surpass this over. The line currently is available at -112, and that is likely to move to a less favorable rate, or we could even see this over/under drop to 7.5 with an obscene -160 on the over. Cole leads the league with 200 strikeouts; however, he has tallied eight or fewer in four of his last five appearances.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Freddy Peralta vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Early)
- RHP Drew Rasmussen at Miami Marlins (Late Afternoon)
- RHP Lance Lynn vs. Kansas City Royals (Main)
- RHP Joe Ryan vs. Boston Red Sox (Main)
- LHP Bailey Falter at Arizona Diamondbacks (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Rowdy Tellez vs. RHP Zach Thompson (Early)
- Aristides Aquino vs. LHP Jose Quintana (Late Afternoon)
- Seth Brown at RHP Anibal Sanchez (Main)
- Javier Baez vs. LHP Marco Gonzales (Main)
- Emmanuel Rivera vs. LHP Bailey Falter (Late)
Latest MLB DFS Content
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- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Logan Webb (April 18)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 18)
- DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From MLB DFS Contest Sims | Riley Greene (April 18 Main Slate)
- Stokastic’s NEW MLB Package: Use What Our Pros Are Using to Win Big
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Wednesday looks like smooth sailing with no precipitation of note. Enjoy the respite, as it looks like some venues may have a wet holiday weekend.
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