TGIF! Filling in for the legendary EMac is no small task, but baseball definitely doesn’t take any days off and with 13 games in play, there’s a lot to break down. The main slate on both sites begins at 7:05 p.m. ET so set your alarms accordingly. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Top Stacks Today (9/2)
Red Sox vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel — 5.6 implied runs
After a big-time come-from-behind win last night, the Red Sox find themselves in a great spot at home against Dallas Keuchel and there is a lot to like about them in all formats across both sites. Once upon a time, Keuchel was the up-and-coming ace in Houston, winning the 2015 American League Cy Young Award and helping the Astros fight their way into contention. Those days are now long gone, however, and current-day Keuchel might legitimately be a bottom-five starter in baseball. Already on his third team after being let go by the White Sox and the Diamondbacks, Keuchel has struggled with an 8.84 ERA giving up a ton of power while also supporting a 5.79 FIP. It’s almost sad watching him at this point so expect the Red Sox to take full advantage.
After a tough night last night, Tommy Pham leads the way for Boston, as he continues to mash LHP with a .375 OBP and 11 XBH in 115 at-bats against southpaws. Pham is in a great spot presumably leading off against Keuchel and he’s one of the top outfielders on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. J.D. Martinez, Trevor Story and Xander Bogaerts all destroy LHP as well and there’s also a lot to like about Rafael Devers, both against Keuchel and the Rangers’ bullpen. After two late RBI doubles, Devers’ upside is massive here.
NYM vs RHP Josiah Gray — 4.9 implied runs
On paper, the Mets aren’t in nearly as good of a spot as the Red Sox and the projected ownership on the two teams tells that story. While I would surely prefer Boston and its 5.6 implied run total, 4.9 runs isn’t too shabby. They’re matched up against Josiah Gray, so their upside is massive without the masses being on them. Gray is a really good young arm and when his stuff is working and he’s locating, he can be lights out. The other side of that isn’t so pretty, however, as he currently holds a 4.67 ERA and 5.66 FIP while giving up 2.34 home runs every nine innings pitched. Gray strikes out a lot of guys but gets hurt badly by hard contact, and facing an extremely potent Mets lineup could mean be a really long night for him.
Projected to be under 5% owned as a stack on both DraftKings and FanDuel, the Mets look like one of the better tournament stacks on the board with the usual suspects of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Starling Marte leading the way. On FanDuel, they will be a bit higher owned due to cheaper pricing, but on DraftKings, where they are projected to be under 3%, the idea of spending up to be contrarian makes a lot of sense in tournaments.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Top Pitchers Today (9/2)
RHP Charlie Morton vs Marlins — 3.2 implied runs
Under $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Charlie Morton looks like the clear top starting pitcher across all formats tonight. Projected to be a top two pitcher about 25% of the time on DraftKings, Morton really stands out at $9,300 on this slate as there are no Spencer Strider types at $8,800 like last night. A 4.10 ERA with an xERA of 3.93 aren’t ace-like numbers, but when facing an inept Marlins lineup that really struggles against RHP, he’s just too cheap given the context of the slate. No one is denying that Sandy Alcantara and Luis Castillo are better pitchers than Morton at this point, but facing the Braves in Atlanta and the Guardians in Cleveland makes their matchups significantly harder. It makes sense why Morton is projected to be the highest-owned pitcher on both sites.
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RHP Luis Castillo vs Guardians — 3.6 implied runs
Speaking of Castillo, the new-found Mariners ace finds himself in a tough spot in Cleveland against the Guardians, and with expensive price tags. On DraftKings and FanDuel, he’s projected for a combined 8% ownership across both sites. It’s never fun taking an opposing starting pitcher against the Guardians, as they strike out the least amount in baseball — only an 18.4% clip — and routinely make pitchers work. Castillo is not just an average pitcher, however, and the 28.5 DraftKings points he dropped on this same Cleveland team in his last start makes that crystal clear. While I don’t expect him to rack up 10 strikeouts again tonight, we don’t necessarily need that for him to be one of the better pitching options on this slate. Currently, our tools project him to be a top two pitcher almost 15% of the time on DraftKings, and while it’s clearly a tough spot, he’s so low-owned that taking a shot on him in tournaments looks like a more than viable strategy. Castillo’s ceiling has always been sky high and coming into tonight with a 2.85 ERA and 9.95 K/9, he’s at the top of the list as far as upside goes.
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MLB DFS Early Slate Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Picks Today (September 29)
MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Single-Game & Showdown
MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Night Slate
MLB DFS Top Stack % for FanDuel
MLB DFS Top Stack % for Yahoo
MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Main Slate
MLB DFS Ownership Rankings: DraftKings
MLB DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections