Welcome to MLB DFS Roses of the Day!
My name is Chris Randone. If you ever watched The Bachelor or The Bachelorette, then you know getting a rose means everything. It symbolizes the guy or girl giving them out has an interest in you. Getting a rose means you survive to keep fighting for love. Well in daily fantasy sports it’s no different. We go through a list of players deciding who will survive and make the cut into our lineups. These players fight to help us win. A true definition of love. I’ve learned being on the show that you never give out roses just for fun, there has to be a meaning behind it. We’ll take that same approach here. Tonight’s rose ceremony I’ll give my Top Stack, Top Pitcher, and Surprise Pitcher.
Colorado Rockies, will you accept this rose?
It’s hard to not look at the enormous 7.6 implied run total the Colorado Rockies have on tonight’s main slate. The Rockies will face Gas Can Edwin Jackson at home, which seems to be the perfect formula for success. Jackson has always struggled with right-handed hitters and the beginning of his 2019 campaign is no different. In 31 at-bats this season right handers have posted 12 hits (.387 avg), 13 runs, and five home runs, while Colorado has a .346 BABIP at home versus right-handed pitching this season which ranks best in the league. Factor in that ranking with these: .365 wOBA (2nd), .225 ISO (2nd), 114 wRC (4th), .292 Avg (1st), the Rockies seem like a must play. Edwin Jackson is primarily a cut fastball and slider pitcher. Below is what the Rockies have done against cut fastballs and sliders:
Arenado .778 ISO & .705 wOBA
Hampson .375 ISO & .586 wOBA
Reynolds .333 ISO & .525 wOBA
Story .250 ISO & .458 wOBA
Desmond .313 wOBA
Dahl .370 wOBA
One interesting factor with this being my top stack is their ownership. Currently, the Awesemo projections have the Colorado Rockies as the highest owned stack but the individual ownership shows there could be some plays like Nolan Arenado (12% DraftKings projection) that might get overlooked. Lately, going contrarian has been the sexy approach in tournaments and given this is a 15 game slate, the Colorado Rockies could get overlooked than anticipated.
Joey Lucchesi, will you accept this rose?
Joey Lucchesi has found his groove as of late. He piled up 11 strikeouts against Toronto in his last start, and has a 0.83 WHIP and 23 strikeouts over his last four. The San Diego southpaw will face the putrid offense of the Miami Marlins. When it comes to facing left-handed pitching on the road, Miami ranks as one of the worst offenses in the league. In 245 plate appearances against left-handed pitching on the road Miami has five home runs (3rd worst in the league) and scored only 17 runs (MLB worst).
Lucchesi will face a team who ranks 2nd worst in ISO (.106) and wRC+ (58). Miami is stingy when it comes to striking out versus left-handed pitching at 19.4 percent which ranks for fourth best in the league. However, if Lucchesi can find command early, the San Diego Southpaw could provide huge upside given his matchup and environment.
Surprise Pitching Play
German Marquez, will you accept this rose?
Picking a pitcher in Coors Field can be scary but German Marquez draws an interesting matchup tonight against the Blue Jays. Marquez has a few things working for him tonight. First, Toronto holds the fourth highest strikeout rate at 25.3 percent in the league and ranks bottom ten across the board in offense this season. Second, the Blue Jays also struggle with power: they only have 66 home runs across 1862 at-bats, which is an average of one home run every 27 at-bats (1 HR/game). Last, Marquez throws a ton of four seam fastballs (37.5% thwon) and curveballs (21.8% thrown).
The Blue Jays combined as a team this season hold a .193 team ISO and .198 batting average (112/563) against four seam and curve balls thrown. There’s no doubt the Colorado ace can strike people out (averages 6.7 strikeouts per game) and his low ownership projections combined with his low price (FanDuel mostly) provide high upside in tournament play.
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Main Slate FanDuel Fantasy Baseball Picks Today 6/30
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Main Slate DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Picks Today 6/30
Top Batters Tool: FanDuel
Top Batters Tool: DraftKings
MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Single-Game & Showdown
MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Night Slate
MLB DFS Top Stack % for Yahoo
MLB DFS Top Stack % for FanDuel