Friday, Oct. 1, brings the last regular-season weekday, with 14 games on the main slate. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Friday, Oct. 1
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Boston Red Sox at Josh Rogers — 5.6 implied runs
The Red Sox are staying in the D.C. Metro area to take on Washington in Nationals Park. Though they will be without the designated hitter in this series, they start things off with a great matchup against lefty Josh Rogers. Rogers was cast aside by the Orioles before landing in Washington, and while the 2.73 ERA is impressive, Rodgers has nine-inning rates of 1.51 home runs allowed and just 5.8 strikeouts.
J.D. Martinez ($18) will likely draw the start over Kyle Schwarber ($17), though expect the latter to pinch-hit, likely for Hunter Renfroe ($21), once a righty comes in from the bullpen. Xander Bogaerts ($17) and Rafael Devers ($18) have favorable salaries, and either leadoff man Enrique Hernandez ($14) or Bobby Dalbec ($19) can be included for a full stack.
Chicago White Sox vs. RHP Wily Peralta — 5.2 implied runs
While Chicago has clinched the American League Central, it can still work to get homefield advantage against the Yankees, Astros, Mariners and Red Sox in the second round. Though the White Sox are not likely to push their pitchers too hard, even if they give a key batter or two the night off, they still have a loaded lineup. The priority should be the regulars, with Eloy Jimenez, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Yasmani Grandal being the top options. Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets should be in the lineup, and while they are likely to be at the bottom of the order, they are cheap, protected by the loaded offense around them and unlikely to be lifted for a pinch-hitter.
Seattle Mariners vs. LHP Jose Suarez — 4.2 implied runs
Most gamers will be flocking to the Dodgers against Eric Lauer or the Giants in what is a likely Padres bullpen game. Seattle gets a matchup against lefty Jose Suarez, who they saw in his last start. Though Suarez generally does not implode on the mound, he does allow a lot of contact. In his last 10.2 innings he has only four strikeouts. The Mariners top options will all be concentrated in the middle of the order and adjacent to each other. Mitch Haniger and Kyle Seager are the obvious plays. Ty France has really made strides as a complete hitter this season, and he excels with the platoon advantage. Little-known Luis Torrens should be in the lineup, and in his last 161 righty/lefty matchups he has a .232 ISO, which is the second highest on the team. If Tom Murphy is behind the plate instead of Torrens, he is very much in play with his .225 ISO against lefties over the last two seasons.
Top MLB DFS Picks Target: LHP Ranger Suarez at Miami Marlins — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $49 | FanDuel $9,000 | DraftKings $8,800
Ranger Suarez tossed a complete-game shutout in his last start against the Pirates on an economical 97 pitches. In his last seven starts since being fully stretched out, he has allowed just seven earned runs and one home run while walking just eight. This is all with a strikeout per inning, and his 1.43 ERA compared to his 1.96 FIP indicates that he has not been relying completely on luck. This level of production is not sustainable given most projection models have him with an ERA approaching 4.00 and are forecasting a dip in strikeouts. However, tonight he is facing an anemic Marlins squad, and this is a reasonable salary for his recent production.
Secondary MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Eli Morgan at Texas Rangers — 4.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $36 | FanDuel $7,800 | DraftKings $7,300
Today matchups are the name of the game, and Eli Morgan has a good one against Texas. The Rangers are a bottom-five squad against right-handed pitchers and are creating runs 16% less efficiently than league average. By no means is Morgan a lights-out pitcher, and he has been on the good side of variance this month, with a 3.27 ERA that is a full run lower than expectations. However, he should be in line for 85 to 90 pitches, and that makes him an intriguing second pitcher on Yahoo and DraftKings. FanDuel is offering a fair salary as well, though Morgan is unlikely to reach the quality start bonus, which will cap his upside for tournaments.
Wild Card MLB DFS Picks Target: RHP Jon Gray at Arizona Diamondbacks — 4.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $33 | FanDuel $8,300 | DraftKings $7,700
Clayton Kershaw is a wild card tonight in a must-win game for the Dodgers if they want to catch the Giants in the National League West. However, he has not completed the fifth inning in any of his three starts since returning from injury. Lance Lynn is now a long shot for the American League Cy Young Award, and the White Sox are locked into their playoff seeding. Anthony DeSclafani is also in a good matchup against an imploded Padres squad, but San Francisco is quick to go to its bullpen when he is on the mound, which means 75 to 80 pitches are likely.
That has led to Jon Gray being the wild card option tonight. In his four September starts Gray, has thrown at least 85 pitches in three. Tonight he will be facing the Diamondbacks, who are the second-worst team in the league against right-handed pitching, creating runs 22% less efficiently than league average. Though he may not throw more pitches than the trio listed above, at least his salary has that factored in already.
Final Thoughts for the Friday, Oct. 1 MLB DFS Slate
This is the last big tournament slate of the regular season. Saturday will be featuring a split slate, and while nearly every team will be playing at the same time on Sunday, all eyes will be on the NFL, and the contests will be diminutive.
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