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MLB DFS Picks Friday 7/29: Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks Today

Eric MacPherson



Friday, July 29, wraps up the week with a terrific 13-game main slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.

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DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/29)

Main Slate: Brewers at RHP Brayan Bello — 5.2 implied runs

Rookie Brayan Bello has struggled in The Show, allowing 14 runs in his three starts, including two games against Tampa Bay and one against Toronto. Milwaukee does have a potent offense, though it may not increase Bello’s already inflated 10.50 ERA and 2.50 WHIP.

Rowdy Tellez, Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe bring the lumber from the middle of the order, and they should collectively be worth a couple of extra-base hits. Christian Yelich has hits in 10 of his last 11 games and may finally be putting his endless slump behind him. Keep in mind that he took home the National League batting crown in both the 2018 and 2019 seasons while also finishing first and second in the MVP voting those years. If he is back to that form, we are getting him at a solid discount tonight. The Stokastic Top Batters Tool has the Brewers near the top of their respective positions, behind the Dodgers, of course.

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Evening Slate: Athletics at RHP Lance Lynn — 3.4 implied runs

The Masses will rightfully be on the Dodgers in Coors Field or with the White Sox against James Kaprielian. However, targeting the struggling Lance Lynn with a few selective Oakland bats could be the key to tournament differentiation.

In his last start, Lynn held the Guardians scoreless for six innings in the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader. However, in his seven preceding starts, he was consistently rocked to the tune of seven home runs in 36 innings, resulting in a 7.50 ERA and 1.52 WHIP against some pretty pedestrian competition.

Seth Brown should be back from the paternity list, and he is the primary target from the middle of the order. Ramon Laureano and catcher Sean Murphy are also on the short list for what could be a potent contrarian trio on the main slate. Outfielders Stephen Piscotty and Skye Bolt are bottom of the order discount dandies for the evening sub-slate.

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Late Slate: Twins at LHP Blake Snell — 3.7 implied runs

Hat tip to Blake Snell, who has allowed only five home runs in 55 innings this season, but we all know he is playing with fire. On the main slate, there is no reason to target the Twins other than one-offs such as Byron Buxton, who has a .410 wOBA and a .358 ISO in his last 160 righty-lefty matchups, or a dramatically discounted Kyle Garlick, who has light-tower power and is only $2,900 on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel. On the late slate, add in Carlos Correa and switch-hitting Jorge Polanco in the hopes that Snell has a meltdown.

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Primary Target: RHP Justin Verlander vs. Mariners — 3.4 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $11,100

If the weather cooperates, then Gerrit Cole at home against the Royals is the pitcher to target. In the event the rain washes out Friday’s action in New York, Justin Verlander is a fine consolation prize. Tonight marks the 19th start of the season for the 39-year-old hurler and also the sixth time he has faced the Mariners.

Though Seattle has a solid offense, there really is no one hitter that is particularly worrisome, aside from rookie phenom Julio Rodriguez. In the two months that have transpired since the Mariners got to Verlander for a quartet of home runs, the venerable ace allowed only four home runs in his subsequent nine starts while closing out the seventh inning in six of those appearances. This season Verlander leads MLB with a 13-3 record, accompanied by a top-three 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. For those wondering, in his five matchups against the M’s, he has compiled a 2.60 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 38 whiffs across 34.2 innings, with four victories.

Secondary Target: RHP Alek Manoah vs. Tigers — 2.8 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $10,200

Alek Manoah has been stellar in his sophomore campaign, ranking third with his 11-4 record, fifth with a 2.24 ERA and seventh with his 0.97 WHIP. Across 19 starts, he has allowed two or fewer runs 16 times and a grand total of 11 earned runs in the other three games. Detroit has been historically bad against right-handed pitching this season, and there is zero reason to stop picking on them anytime soon.

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Wild Card Target: RHP Shane Bieber at Rays — 3.7 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $10,600

Tonight should be an interesting one for tournaments, as there seem to be limitless aces on the mound, along with the Dodgers carrying an implied run total of nearly seven in their Coors Field matchup against Chad Kuhl after lighting up the scoreboard for 13 runs last night. Alex Cobb ($6,700) is the potential discount option on DraftKings; however, he needs everything to go perfectly to even approach 20 fantasy points, and there are easily half a dozen pitchers who should be above that tonight. On lineups employing Cobb, it will be crucial to nail the hitter upgrades in order to race up the tournament leaderboard.

Instead look to Shane Bieber, despite a tough matchup against Tampa Bay. The Biebs does get a park boost with this game being played in Tropicana Field, but he still remains a wild card option. Bieber has seen his fastball drop two ticks from last year, and his 90.9 mph average is nowhere near his apex season in 2020 when it was 94.2 mph. By increasing his slider and cutter while relying less on his curveball (17.9% down from a career high 31.2% in 2021), he has been able to stay one step ahead of hitters. The Rays are a metrics-based team, so they are likely to be ready for this matchup, which of course increases the risk of rolling with Bieber. Other pivots on DraftKings would be Kyle Wright ($9,200) against Arizona, Miles Mikolas ($8,800) in Washington — though there is a chance of rain — and the enigmatic southpaw Martin Perez ($8,400) in Anaheim taking on the Angels.

Additional Opportunities

Blake Snell may not crack our MLB DFS rosters tonight, but we can still look at him in the player props market. The Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 7.6 strikeouts, giving him a 67% probability of surpassing his s 6.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. Though he only logged five strikeouts in each of his last two starts, one in Colorado and one in New York against the Mets, he did rack up 23 in games against the Giants and Dodgers.

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Other Pitching Options

  1. RHP Chris Bassitt at Miami Marlins (Early)
  2. RHP Brandon Woodruff at Boston Red Sox (Main)
  3. RHP Kyle Wright vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Main)
  4. LHP Jeffrey Springs vs. Cleveland Guardians (Main SP2)
  5. LHP Patrick Sandoval vs. Texas Rangers (Late)

Other Hitting Options

  1. Anthony Santander at LHP Mike Minor (Early)
  2. J.T. Realmuto at LHP Jose Quintana (Main)
  3. Lourdes Gurriel vs. RHP Bryan Garcia (Main)
  4. Jesse Winker at RHP Justin Verlander (Evening)
  5. Brandon Belt vs. RHP Marcus Stroman (Late)

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

New York and Washington both have storms in the general vicinity of their respective venues, though this far out in the forecast, it is hard to tell if the actual games may see any impact. Atlanta also is looking at humidity showers, but they should not result in anything more significant than a potential delay.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media! Looking for more MLB DFS picks content? We have loads of daily fantasy baseball articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Stokastic MLB DFS home page.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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