Monday, July 11, kicks off the work week with a couple of afternoon games leading into a featured slate with a first pitch of 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/11)
It seems that the DraftKings salary algorithm developed Brain Freeze from too many free Slurpees on 7-Eleven Day. This resulted in ridiculous Coors Field salaries, including most of the Padres projected lineup coming in at $3,000 or less and most of the Rockies under $4,000. That makes this an intriguing leverage situation, with this game boasting a projected run total of 12.
Main Slate: Athletics at RHP Spencer Howard — 4.0 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool has highlighted several Oakland bats in tonight’s matchup against Spencer Howard. For his career in The Show, the 25-year-old righty has an unsightly 7.44 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and just over two home runs allowed per nine innings. This season has somehow taken his production to new lows, with a 10.97 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and six home runs allowed. The primary targets should be Seth Brown, Sean Murphy and veteran catcher Stephen Vogt. Most gamers are conditioned to avoid the Athletics this season, and they will be so enamored with the Coors Field Extravaganza that the A’s are a little under the radar for tournaments.
Secondary Stack: Rangers vs. RHP Adrian Martinez — 4.6 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has anointed Texas as the best stack outside of Colorado. Adrian Martinez is still just 25 years old, though he has been kicking around various levels of the minors since 2015 when he began his baseball journey with the Padres. Martinez came over to Oakland as part of the Sean Manaea deal. Though he was no longer considered a prospect, the Athletics liked his profile as a multi-inning reliever. He logged just over 100 innings in Triple-A with around a strikeout per inning, but the conversion to The Show has not been kind. In his last two outings, he struggled against Seattle and Toronto, lasting just 9.2 innings with a 9.31 ERA and .366 batting average, along with four home runs.
Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Kole Calhoun and Nate Lowe are the key targets. Mitch Garver will be undergoing surgery and out for the rest of the year, so Brad Miller is a cheap bat with upside potential depending on his spot in the order. The same can be said for youngster Josh Smith, particularly if he is leading off.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers (FREE MONEY: BET $10 TO WIN $200)
Top Target: RHP Aaron Nola at Cardinals — 3.8 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $8,200
The pitching conditions in St. Louis are far from perfect, with game-time temperatures in the upper-90s, moderate humidity (55%) and a 6 to 10 mph breeze out to left-center field. Even with the conditions against him, Aaron Nola is still among the top options on the board for Monday’s action. Max Scherzer and Max Fried would be the immediate pivots in the same salary range, though Atlanta also is warm and humid and this game boasts two of the best offenses in the league.
Nola continues to be a trusted pitcher and he is in the top seven for strikeouts and WHIP, while his 3.15 ERA ranks 23rd among qualified starters. The Cardinals finally have enough batters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate that they will make us think twice about blindly choosing right-handed hurlers against them. However, Dylan Carlson is dinged up, Corey Dickerson is well beyond his productive days, Tommy Edman has been in a major slump, and Lars Nootbaar feels like a create-a-player. That leaves rookie Nolan Gorman as the likely leadoff man and currently the “best” left-handed option. Since the start of last season, Nola has a 30.6% strikeout rate against lefties and a 28.1% rate against same-handed batsmen. Keep an eye on his popularity, but he deserves the nod over the Maxes.
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Wild Card Target: RHP Alex Cobb vs. Diamondbacks — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,400 | FanDuel $8,400
Arizona has been in the bottom third of the league against right-handed pitching this season, with a 23.2% strikeout rate and a 90 wRC+, albeit with above-average power (.170 ISO). Alex Cobb should be able to mitigate the power, as he has logged a 61.4% ground ball rate this season, which is well above his already excellent 52.6% rate from last year. Another positive is that we do not completely lose out on strikeouts, as he has been above league average the last two seasons in that category as well. There are quite a few tomato cans on the mound tonight, but we should consider Cobb well above that cannon fodder.
Check out Eytan Shander’s best NRFI picks and MLB bets today.
Brayan Bello will be facing Tampa Bay for the second time in a week, and even though he was knocked around in his MLB debut, we should also consider him in the player prop market with his 3.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. The Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 4.9 strikeouts, giving him a 71% probability of surpassing that milestone. Even though he had just two whiffs against Tampa in Boston, this game is in pitching-friendly Tropicana Field and Bello did flash enough upside potential that getting a handful of strikeouts in this remake is well within the reasonable range of expected outcomes.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Max Scherzer at Atlanta Braves (Main)
- LHP Max Fried vs. New York Mets (Main)
- RHP Brayan Bello at Tampa Bay Rays (Main SP2)
- RHP Alex Faedo at Kansas City Royals (Evening)
- RHP Merrill Kelly at San Francisco Giants (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Franmil Reyes vs. RHP Lance Lynn (Main)
- Jarren Duran at RHP Matt Wisler (Main)
- Matt Olson vs. RHP Max Scherzer (Main)
- Javier Baez vs. RHP Alex Faedo (Main, Evening)
- Joc Pederson vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (Late)
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