Monday, Aug. 1, kicks off a new month with a nine-game main slate that has a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (8/1)
Main Slate: Mets at LHP Patrick Corbin — 5.3 implied runs
It is hard to go wrong with either New York team today as a main stack, but the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Metropolitans a little bit more than the Yankees for their all-around appeal when considering salary, popularity and potential production.
For those wondering why Patrick Corbin is still pitching every five days, it is important to note that he has another two seasons and $49 million in payments due on his contract after this year. July was by far the worst month of Corbin’s career, as he was gobsmacked with a 7.99 ERA in five starts spanning 23.2 innings. Surprisingly, he allowed only four home runs and issued just seven walks, but the 40 hits made every opponent look like they had lineups filled with batting champions. To his credit, Corbin has been doing his best to limit the workload that has to be picked up by the bullpen, having logged 97-plus pitches in five of his last six starts. Talk about taking one for the team.
It feels like it is preordained for Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar to account for at least one home run tonight. Starling Marte and Mark Canha both have long track records of success against southpaws, and that still leaves switch-hitter Francisco Lindor to round out a full stack that should account for crooked numbers tonight.
Evening Slate: Astros vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi — 5.2 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is highlighting several Houston hitters near the top of their respective positions. Nathan Eovaldi has not been the same since missing over a month with a sore back. In the three starts since he returned to the rotation, he has lasted just 13 innings while allowing an 11.10 ERA and just over two baserunners per inning.
In this span, Eovaldi has notched only eight strikeouts, which is a problem considering that is typically his calling card. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are both in the top six outfielders tonight, with Alex Bregman looking like a terrific target at the hot corner. Infielders Jose Altuve, rookie Jeremy Pena and defending American League batting champion Yulieski Gurriel can be employed in full-stack scenarios. The Astros are a strong countermove against the New York teams in large-field tournaments.
Late Slate: Padres vs. RHP Antonio Senzatela — 4.5 implied runs
Some will think that Antonio Senzatela is lucky tonight since he gets a major park upgrade over his Coors Field home digs. Unfortunately, he has somehow been worse on the road each of the last four seasons. Setting those basic splits aside, it is the abundance of contact Senzatela allows that is his downfall. Even with nearly half of all balls put in play over the last two seasons being on the ground, he still struggles to contain the opposition with his meager 14.8% strikeout rate. If he is not lucking into double plays, enough runners end up crossing the plate to make him look bad.
The focus tonight should be on Manny Machado and Luke Voit, who are both exceptional against same-handed hurlers. Jurickson Profar, Jake Cronenworth and Eric Hosmer will all hold the platoon advantage tonight, and with the Rockies having only two lefties in the bullpen, this trio of batsmen should hold serve all night.
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Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Max Scherzer at Nationals — 3.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $11,500
Max Scherzer is a steady option tonight as he heads back to his old stomping grounds to take on the Nationals. In five July outings since missing nearly two months, Scherzer has regularly reached 93 pitches or more. He has been sublime across 32.1 innings, with just four walks and two home runs while compiling a 1.39 ERA and a scant 0.83 WHIP. Most impressive are the 45 strikeouts, which work out to 12.5 per nine innings and would be in the mix to lead the league. Washington has lost three of their last four games while plating a measly 2.3 runs per game in this stretch.
Secondary Target: RHP Luis H. Garcia vs. Red Sox — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,600 | FanDuel $10,200
Boston has been a mess since the All-Star Break, scuffling to a 3-7 record. In this stretch, they are averaging just 3.8 runs per game. Rafael Devers, Trevor Story and Enrique “Kike” Hernandez are still on the shelf, and now Rob Refsnyder is dinged up. Though the Red Sox are depleted, they still have solid hitters at the top of the order; however, the lack of depth really shows among the back half of the lineup. July was rough for Luis H. Garcia, who allowed a season-high 4.70 ERA, but he is still piling up strikeouts and the projected BoSox lineup has a 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers dating back to the start of last year.
Wild Card Target: RHP Mike Clevinger vs. Rockies — 4.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,300 | FanDuel $8,500
Mike Clevinger has a friendly salary tonight, and he lines up as an excellent SP2 on DraftKings and can be considered on FanDuel for tournament differentiation. The Rockies are league average on their best days against right-handed pitching, as they tend to be more calibrated to take on southpaws. If Clevinger can successfully neutralize Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon, he should be in line for a quality start. Then the fantasy upside comes down to how many strikeouts he can coax from Colorado on the road.
Additional Opportunities
Spenser Watkins looks like a pitcher to target in the player props market tonight with his 3.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. The Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 3.0 strikeouts, giving him a 65% probability of failing to surpass his milestone. While this is likely to be a nip-and-tuck wager, keep in mind that Watkins has more than three strikeouts in only four of his 13 starts. The projected Texas lineup is right around league average with a 22.6% strikeout rate over the last two seasons, and there is a decent chance they can send Watkins to the showers before he closes out the fourth inning.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Hunter Greene at Miami Marlins (Early)
- RHP Jon Gray vs. Baltimore Orioles (Evening)
- LHP Andrew Heaney at San Francisco Giants (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Tommy Pham at LHP Jesus Luzardo (Early)
- Josh Donaldson vs. LHP Marco Gonzales (Main)
- Javier Baez at LHP Devin Smeltzer (Main)
- Anthony Santander at RHP Jon Gray (Evening)
- Wilmer Flores vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
There are scattered showers in the vicinity of Cleveland, though it will be important to check back prior to first pitch to determine the coverage area of any storms.
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