Saturday, July 9, has a robust nine-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET which leads into a four-game featured slate with a first pitch at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/9)
Main Slate: Houston Astros at LHP Zach Logue — 5.3 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool indicates that Houston facing Zach Logue is likely to lead to plenty of crooked numbers. The young southpaw was sent back to Triple-A at the end of May after allowing 11 runs, including five home runs in seven combined innings against the Rangers and Mariners. It has not been sunshine and roses however as the rookie was roughed up for a 5.03 ERA across half a dozen starts allowing 10 home runs and eight steals in just 34 innings.
Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yulieski Gurriel all have a long track record of success when holding the platoon advantage. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker also excel against fellow lefties. We do not have to stop here as Aledmys Diaz may get another spot start with rookie Jeremy Pena potentially missing a third day while dealing with a potential illness. If he returns to the lineup, then he is a fine option as well.
Catcher Martin Maldonado has been swinging a hot bat with four hits in his last two games including a three run round-tripper last night against Paul Blackburn. Outfielders Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick along with utility man Mauricio Dubon can provided discounted differentiation from the bottom of the order, depending on which pair lands in the lineup tonight.
Main Slate: Atlanta Braves vs. LHP Pat Corbin — 5.9 implied runs
This afternoon, the Stokastic Top Batters Tool is highlighting several Atlanta hitters in the top five of their respective positions in this tasty matchup against Patrick Corbin. The only concern here is potential rain, so do keep an eye on the weather leading up to lock. Though we should not post a lot of stock in batter versus pitcher stats, it is wild to see that the current Braves have a .376/.421/.492 triple slash line in 156 at bats against Corbin. The erstwhile ace was a true tomato can last season allowing 37 home runs. Positive regression found him during the first two months of the season, but over his last five outing, the soon to be 33-year-old southpaw has suffered seven home runs in just 28.1 innings. Focus on the batters swinging the stick from the right-side of the plate with Ronald Acuna, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Travis d’Arnaud and William Contreras all boasting a .200 ISO or higher over the last two season. Then we have Matt Olson putting them all to shame with his .288 ISO in his last 356 lefty/lefty matchups during that same timeframe.
Late Slate: New York Yankees at RHP Kutter Crawford — 5.0 implied runs
Rookie Kutter Crawford has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues, though that does not mean he will find an easy path to success in The Show. Today he has the unenviable task of quelling the hottest offense in baseball. Last night New York logged 12 runs and over the last week they have averaged 7.8 runs per game. On Friday in an effort to save their bullpen for today, Boston turned to Jackie Bradley Jr. to pitch the ninth inning after the Yankees has already crossed home plate 11 times.
Giancarlo Stanton received Friday off, but he is expected back in the lineup tonight. That means Matt Carpenter is likely headed back to the bench, even after hitting his ninth home run of the season in just 59 at bats, unless of course Anthony Rizzo sits for a fifth day while dealing with a back issue. Aaron Judge was back last night after receiving a maintenance day on Thursday to rest his sore legs. Judge leads the league with 30 home runs and Rizzo is fifth with 22, despite missing time.
DJ LeMahieu, Joey Gallo, Aaron Hicks and whomever is behind the plate are also fine options tonight. Plus there is still Josh Donaldson who will be looking to homer in his fourth consecutive game. Damn Yankees!
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today (FREE MONEY: BET $10 TO WIN $200)
Top Target: RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $10,000
This is an easy recommendation as we just saw Brandon Woodruff roll over Pittsburgh in PNC Park on Sunday. In that outing he held the Pirates scoreless for six innings while racking up eight strikeouts. This was Woodruff’s second start after a five week layoff while recovering from an ankle injury. Tampa Bay was his opponent in his return and he was outstanding in that matchup as well with five innings, one earned run and 10 punchouts on an economical 76 pitches. The Bucs do have some pop with a .164 ISO against right-handed pitching, though it is accompanied by a 24.1% strikeout rate. Saturday’s projected Pittsburgh lineup has a two-year trailing 25.6% strikeout rate against righties. Enjoy!
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Secondary Target: LHP Framber Valdez vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $10,700
Framber Valdez and his ridiculous 67.2% groundball rate and negative 4.7 degree launch angle should be no match for Oakland’s pedestrian lineup. Only once in his 16 starts has Valdez ceded more than three earned runs, which has resulted in a 2.67 ERA which is the 14th best in the league. Even more impressive is that he has seen an increase with his strikeouts, posting six or more in eight of his last 11 appearances. Do not dwell on this decision, just roster Valdez.
Evening Target: RHP Alek Manoah at Seattle Mariners — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $10,000
Pitching is plentiful on the evening slate, even with just eight teams in action. Carlos Rodon, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray and Yu Darvish all have plausible paths to being the best fantasy performer tonight. Alek Manoah has allowed four home runs in his last three outings, though he still ranks in the top ten with his 9-3 record, 2.33 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Even with the recent blip on the radar, Manoah has held the opposition to two runs or less in 13 of his 16 starts. Seattle has a steady offense, though aside from rookie Julio Rodriguez and the suddenly surging Eugenio Suarez, there are not many scary bats. Keep in mind that Jesse Winker is suspended for his role in the Mariners basebrawl with the Angels in Anaheim and he will not return until Tuesday.
Robbie Ray ranks fifth with 117 strikeouts, however his game to game output varies dramatically. This makes him an interesting target in the player props market with his 6.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. The Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 7.1 strikeouts, giving him a 58% probability of surpassing that milestone. However, so many things will have to go right for the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner to reach that total in a tough matchup against Toronto. The Blue Jays have the fourth lowest strikeout rate against southpaws this season at 18.6% and Ray has six or fewer strikeouts in nine of his 17 starts. Take the plus money on the under in this prop.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Johnny Cueto vs. Detroit Tigers (Early)
- RHP Kyle Wright vs. Washington Nationals (Afternoon)
- LHP Kyle Freeland at Arizona Diamondbacks (Afternoon)
- LHP Carlos Rodon at San Diego Padres (Evening)
- LHP Clayton Kershaw vs. Chicago Cubs (Late)
- Jose Abreu vs. RHP Garrett Hill (Early)
- Mitch Garver vs. LHP Devin Smeltzer (Afternoon)
- Wander Franco at RHP Hunter Green (Afternoon)
- Trevor Story vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (Evening)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at LHP Robby Ray (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Atlanta looks to be the most troubling from a precipitation perspective with afternoon showers leading to evening thunderstorms. It will be important to keep tabs on the forecast with Kyle Wright in a tremendous matchup against the Nationals.
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