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For Monday’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click this link
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight DFS Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find two tables, one for DraftKings and one for FanDuel, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
FanDuel
[table id=1177 /]
DraftKings
[table id=1178 /]
Yahoo
[table id=1201 /]
I’m starting to enjoy these weird Monday slates. We only have seven games and the pitching is…interesting. That makes for a fun night.
FanDuel MLB DFS Picks
On FanDuel, salary is more important than usual. Clayton Kershaw is the most expensive pitcher on the slate at $11000, but I’m not sure he’s the best value. I’ll certainly be getting some exposure to Kershaw, but there are at least two guys I expect to have more of at lower prices. In particular, I think Eduardo Rodriguez is the best pitcher going tonight, regardless of salary. To be able to roster him at $8400 is lunacy. Because my favorite stack is Yankees, I’ll need a bit of extra salary from my pitcher and E-Rod fits perfectly. I expect him to be very chalky, but it’s not changing anything for me. He will easily be my most exposed pitcher.
I have a feeling my second favorite pitcher will be a surprise. I will give the caveat that the lineup has the potential to change this pick dramatically. As of right now, Zack Greinke is my second choice. Obviously, the Dodgers are a difficult matchup, but the current Vegas total is only 4.4 runs for Los Angeles and that’s more than manageable for Greinke.
The key piece will be the bottom of the order for the Dodgers. If they roll out Matt Beaty, Chris Taylor and/or Austin Barnes, I’ll be feeling a lot better about my chances. There are scary bats in LA, so keeping track of how many of them make the final lineup will dictate how much Greinke I end up with. If the lineup changes dramatically, it’s likely Greinke falls behind Kershaw (and possible Jon Gray). If not, I’m “going to bat” with E-Rod and Greinke in the majority of my 150.
DraftKings MLB DFS Picks
On DraftKings, most of my thoughts stay the same. Rodriguez is the best play on the slate. Greinke is my second favorite guy based on the early projected lineup. Those two guys combine for $17,100, which is perfect. Kershaw looks like a much better play at just $10400. He’s actually $1500 cheaper than Lucas Giolito. I’ve become a believer in the new Giolito, but on a 7-game slate, with the Red Sox on tap, I’m not sure I end up with him all that much. Because of his salary, it would take a ceiling game to truly hurt you. I see those odds as long.
Paying down at SP2 becomes a tricky proposition thanks to the E-Rod pricing. Depending on the weather in Chicago, Jon Lester could end up viable. The problem is, you aren’t really gaining anything by dropping from Rodriguez, other than leverage. I have a similar feeling regarding Adam Plutko and Steven Matz. They’re fine. I’ll have 5-10% of each.
Yahoo MLB DFS Picks
On Yahoo, pricing is a bit better from a realism perspective. E-Rod is still the top play, but his price is closer to the pack in comparison to FD/DK. Greinke is still my number two, but it’s REALLY close due to salary. I honestly have a hard time picking between Greinke, Kershaw, Giolito and Gray. They are all very similar from a points per dollar perspective. I would cycle through each option depending on how much salary I needed from my hitters.
If I’m paying down, I think I’m going all the way to the basement. Drew Pomeranz won’t be going to deep into the game, but he’s minimum salary and has the ability to pick up strikeouts in bunches while he’s out there. Since the game is in San Francisco, you can cross your fingers and hope that he can keep the ball in the park long enough to rack up 14-20 FP.
Of course, please do stop by our Awesemo YouTube channel for loads of FREE MLB DFS content, including fantasy MLB lineup advice on The Strategy Show with Josh Engleman and Loughy, as well as MLB picks on Four Corners with Chris Spags, and the MLB Deep Dive with Awesemo, Loughy and ShipMyMoney, where they’ll discuss Awesemo’s MLB rankings.
