NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

We’re back! After a long week off, the Thursday NBA DFS slate gets started in style with massive contests across the industry. There are juicy options on the board, with a few underpriced stars and some standout situational opportunities available for lineup building on both sites. The slate tops out with a 240-point total in the Hawks vs Bulls game, while the Grizzlies vs Timberwolves contest comes in right behind it at 239.5. A third excellent target comes in one of the night’s final two games, a 10 pm ET affair between the Nuggets and Kings that has both one of the site’s major star plays and a 235.5-point game total. Several mid-range or value plays seem clear to emerge from this game alongside the Nuggets star center, one of the slate-leading options in any format on any site tonight. Getting to a blend of options from those three games, while remembering to include the value plays and premium pieces from other contests is key to lineup building this evening.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With seven games on the slate, this article will focus on the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Clint Capela: DraftKings $5,800 — C | FanDuel $6,100 — C

One of the top-10 plays on the board across the industry on the night NBA DFS returns is Clint Capela, who has had a rocky year for fantasy production when compared to expectations. Capela is a different play from site to site, on the DraftKings slate he does not carry the major opportunity cost that he does on FanDuel. On that slate the singular center requirement is offset for many players by power forward eligibility, but that is not the case when looking at Capela and superstar Denver center Nikola Jokic, who is the most frequently optimal player on the blue site, despite having the slate’s highest salary. Capela is still very much on the board on that site, but he is not the play he is on DraftKings, where he can be rostered alongside Jokic for a cheap price. Capela has a 57.9% true shooting percentage and a strong 20.9% rebounding percentage this season, and he averages 2.6 stocks per-36 minutes. Capela has an opportunity to approach a ceiling score for his low cost on both sites.

Jokic is the primary reason to skip Capela on the FanDuel slate, but when not spending up for him, there is every reason to jump immediately down the board to the Atlanta center’s $6,100 salary on the blue site. Capela ranks 12th overall with an 18.2% optimal lineup appearance rate and he comes with a 2.9 leverage score that can be targeted for additional ownership on this site. Capela is far less popular than Jokic, who comes in as the slate’s second-most frequently rostered player at 35.5% public ownership. Capela gains value by virtue of coming in at less than half that rate, with a public ownership projection of just 15.3% on the FanDuel slate, and he has a 41.54% boom score probability that falls just short of the top spot on the board. That honor goes to Aaron Holiday who lands at a 45.68% mark in that category. Jokic is third on the board with a 38.81% boom score mark, however, further illustrating the extreme nature of the superstar’s NBA DFS point-scoring upside on this slate. Jokic is projected for more than 10 median fantasy points beyond the next-highest player on the board, a difference that simply cannot be ignored for his $11,400 salary. Capela is a strong contender for the overflow shares that are created when skipping Jokic, but he cannot be rostered ahead of the Nuggets star overall.

The story changes on the DraftKings slate, where Capela costs just $5,800 and can be rostered alongside Jokic or other centers via the utility position. The Atlanta center is projected for a 34.9-point median score on the DraftKings slate and he lands in the optimal lineup in 26.1% of Awesemo’s simulated slates for the site. At that rate, Capela is the most frequently optimal player at any position on DraftKings tonight. He is extremely appealing at a 6.3 leverage score that should be targeted again and again. Capela has a 39.53% boom score probability that is also the slate-leading mark at any position on the site, but the public is well behind the curve. Capela comes in with just a 19.8% popularity projection, while Jokic will be rostered by 22.9% of the field. With the ability to include both options in a lineup, and many of the other top plays coming from the guard spots, there is a good foundation for building lineups with the combination of Capela and Jokic. Karl-Anthony Towns is an additional option on the DraftKings slate for a higher price at the center position. Towns clots in immediately below Jokic with a 22.68% boom score probability, the 10th-highest mark on the entire slate, and the third-highest among centers. Towns costs $9,800 and lands in the optimal lineup in 15.8% of simulated slates, making him another strong consideration for additional lineup shares when he checks in at a 1.2 leverage score. Capela stands taller than either of the star centers in Awesemo’s probability metrics He is an excellent foundational value piece in lineup constructions of all types of the DraftKings NBA DFS slate tonight.

Latest NBA DFS Content

Devin Booker: DraftKings $8,800 — SG | FanDuel $8,800 — SG

NBA DFS gamers will be hearing more about Devin Booker over the next 4 to 6 weeks than the rest of the world will be hearing about Eastern Europe. He will be playing without star teammate Chris Paul, a situation in which Booker typically sees a major bounce. In 180 minutes without both Paul and Cameron Payne, Booker has a 34.6% usage rate and 1.25 fantasy points per minute. Both of those marks are upticks, Booker averages a 1.18 per-minute mark for the season and he typically sees 31.4% usage. With the added responsibility, the scorer can come up big on the right night, when adding in the opportunity for the capable facilitator to improve upon his 20.2% assist percentage, it is easy to see a clear path to a ceiling score for Booker. He will be very popular on both sites, but he is listed at a fair price in the upper mid-range, making him a strong play even when he has the weight of negative leverage pulling in the opposite direction.

On the DraftKings slate Booker has a 24.5% optimal lineup appearance rate that ranks second among players at all positions. The shooting guard costs just $8,800 on the site and he is projected for a top-notch 46.4-point median projection, the sixth-highest projection at any position on the seven-game slate. Booker ranks among a list of more expensive options; every other player in the top 10 by median projection on the DraftKings slate costs at least $9,000, which is the 10th-ranked Domantas Sabonis’ price on the site. Sabonis has a 42.9-point median projection in 10th, Jokic leads the way with a tremendous 61.6-point median projection for his also slate-leading $12,500 salary, and fellow guards Trae Young, Ja Morant and Stephen Curry cost $9,900, $9,800, and $10,200. Booker is an excellent option who projects similarly for $1,000 less at his position, outpacing the degree to which his popularity is a problem. He will be in 29.5% of the public’s lineups, which technically leaves a -5.0 leverage score, but Booker can safely be rostered with an eye toward differentiation at other positions in DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight.

Booker is the leading play by optimal lineup appearance rate on the FanDuel slate. Outpacing the field by more than 3 percentage points, Booker’s 31% rate of landing in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulations gives the Suns shooting guard extreme appeal for the same price against a higher cap on the blue site. Booker is projected for a 44.76-point median FanDuel score, and he has an excellent 31.11% boom score probability that fits in sixth on the slate. A whopping 37.3% of the field is projected to include him in their lineups this evening, but even at a -6.3 leverage score, there is clear value in the potential for a ceiling score. Booker’s median projection is the sixth-highest on the FanDuel slate, landing ahead of Curry for raw fantasy point-scoring potential. He falls in behind Young and Morant, but the four guards are separated by fewer than two FanDuel points from top to bottom. Getting to a broad mix of the guard options seems like a good approach to the FanDuel slate this evening, Booker should be a major part of that rotation despite the noteworthy lack of positional flexibility on all four options.

Seth Curry: DraftKings $6,000 — SG/SF | FanDuel $5,900 — PG/SG

No, the other one. Despite his status as one of the NBA’s all-time leaders in career three-point shooting percentage, Nets wing Seth Curry will forever live in the shadow of his superstar brother. For NBA DFS purposes this evening, however, both Currys find themselves on a similar footing in terms of their probability of delivering relative value across the industry. The allegedly-lesser Curry brother comes in with positional flexibility and a low price on both sites, and he has plenty of runway for production in the depleted Brooklyn lineup. Curry has produced fantasy points at a 0.76 per-minute rate this season, but he has bounced to a 0.84 per-minute mark over his new team’s three most recent games while seeing 33 minutes a night. Curry has a fantastic 60.6% true shooting percentage and a strong 18% assist rate. He should see another big opportunity for fantasy point production at a low cost and critical position this evening.

On the DraftKings slate Curry lands as the ninth-most frequently optimal player, checking into the leading lineup in 16% of Awesemo’s simulated slates for the site. The deadeye shooter costs just $6,000 and he has critical flexibility between five lineup spots, given his eligibility at both shooting guard and small forward on the site. Curry is carrying a 31.4-point median projection on DraftKings, 15.6 points behind his far more expensive brother. He has a 19.87% boom score probability that drops to 17th overall on the slate. That rate illustrates Curry’s nature as more of a plug-and-play salary option who looks good for around his median projection with limited upside beyond it, in the right lineup and with proper expectations, that is a valuable commodity for lineup building when the player has this degree of flexibility. Curry’s optimal lineup rate and excellent 6.0 leverage score are worthy targets on DraftKings tonight.

On the FanDuel slate Curry checks in with a 13.9% optimal lineup appearance rate, plummeting to 29th overall on the blue site. Curry is a $5,900 option at either guard position on the FanDuel slate, where he carries a 29.44-point median projection and an 18.56% boom score probability. He is a firm mid-range option for the $5,900 price tag, but he is showing potential to be outproduced by similarly-priced options including Klay Thompson, Anfernee Simons, Cade Cunningham, and other value-based options. Curry’s best attribute on the FanDuel slate is his 3.2 leverage score which lands 16th overall on the slate. There are many quality options in the board’s current configuration, but much is bound to change by the time contests lock this evening, Curry seems like a stable mid-range target who can be rostered with low expectations. He will be owned by just 10.7% of the field and has upside slightly beyond that mark.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

Share this on:

X (Twitter) Facebook

[NBAPAGE]

Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.