Mid-week madness comes with a solid nine-game slate of NBA DFS action that features a 231-point total in a late-night contest between the Nets and Kings, as well as a handful of games coming in with totals in the mid-220s. The slate is already ripe with bigtime value options and there are premium top-shelf stars available across the industry once again. The slate comes together in familiar ways with the current values, but there are a few situations worth monitoring. Anything that injects unexpected upside for low salary will naturally create additional potential in other positions in a lineup, it is important to not get lost in considering player replacements on a one vs one basis. Every change to the slate has a cascading impact on everything else, which is why it is critical to monitor the optimal lineup rates, boom scores and leverage scores provided in tools, along with the overall player projections and raw ownership marks.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With nine games on the slate, this article will focus on several of the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Marquese Chriss: DraftKings — $3,000 — PF/C | FanDuel — $5,000 — PF
Apologies, blue site denizens, but this one is primarily a play for the folks who make their lineups across town. In the absence of Dallas power forward Kristaps Porzingis, several options from the Mavericks are looking like strong plays tonight, not the least of which is backup big man Marquese Chriss, who just posted a mammoth 38.3-point FanDuel night in only 19 minutes. Chriss is projected for just 16.2 minutes tonight, but he averages 1.2 fantasy points per minute across all situations in his limited 18-game sample this season. Last year Chriss posted 1.32 per minute. He is reliable for fantasy scoring when he is on the floor; the question is only how many minutes can be banked for the minimum price in DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight.
On the FanDuel slate, Chriss is essentially an afterthought. He lands in the optimal lineup in just 1.8% of simulated slates and he has a 7.29% boom score probability. The problem on the site is a gigantic leap to a $5,000 salary and limitation to the power forward position, making Chriss nearly unplayable unless he steps into a larger playing time projection. Chriss is technically at positive leverage, but as things currently stand he is barely on the board.
The situation is wildly different on DraftKings, which Chriss comes in as a multi-position player between center and power forward who costs the flat minimum on the site. At $3,000, Chriss will not have to do very much in his limited action, 16 minutes would be enough to pay the salary and it leaves a 32.56% boom score probability that is one of the slate’s top marks for a ceiling score. Chriss ranks sixth overall by optimal lineup appearance rate on the DraftKings slate, landing behind only Wendell Carter Jr. at both the center and power forward positions. The flexibility to roster both big men with ease is a lineup building luxury on the site, Chriss will be owned by just 12.5% of the field, giving him extended value with a 4.0 leverage score. For a player who lands in the optimal lineup in 16.5% of simulated slates, there is significant value in targeting his minimum salary again and again in a variety of lineup combinations. At this price, what Chriss ends up producing on the court is almost irrelevant, it is more about the combinations unlocked by inserting him into the lineup. With Daniel Gafford on the board with a 34.15% boom score probability and an 11.9% optimal lineup rate on the site, building a foundation of inexpensive backup big men is an odd angle into premium lineup constructions tonight, although there are value plays in seemingly all positional corners.
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James Harden: DraftKings — $11,200 — PG | FanDuel — $10,500 – SG/SF
Superstar James Harden looks like one of the top pay-up options across the industry again tonight. The Nets are in Sacramento to square off against the Kings in the night’s most heavily totaled contest. Harden is the top player in that game, but the Nets will also have star guard Kyrie Irving in the mix, while Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge and others remain out. Harden is easily the leader among available Nets with 1.32 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season. In 457 minutes without Durant, Aldridge and Joe Harris on the floor, Harden has a 32.9% usage rate, up from the 27.9% he sees as an average, which pushes his per-minute scoring to 1.46 fantasy points per minute. In 104 minutes sharing the floor with Irving in that same scenario, however, Harden’s per-minute production plummets to 1.15, while Irving sits at a 1.21 rate. Harden’s usage drops back to 27.2% with Irving on the floor, which explains part of the reduction in his per-minute production, but the overall drop seems extreme and could be a product of a relatively small sample from this season only. Overall, Harden is a top-shelf option on most slates. He comes into tonight with a 58.1% true shooting percentage, a 39.8% assist rate and a 10.6% rebounding percentage, and the field may be sour on him after getting just 42 FanDuel points in 37 minutes for their investment in the team’s most recent game. In a wide-open matchup against the Kings, Harden has a strong shot at putting up a slate-bending score.
On the FanDuel slate, Harden stands as the second most frequently optimal player at any position, landing behind only the next featured player by optimal lineup appearance rate, where he comes in with a 28.8%. Harden outpaces superstar center Nikola Jokic by 6.5 percentage points in the optimal lineup category, and he can be rostered at two positions for his lower salary, pushing him toward being the more favorable of the two expensive choices this evening. Jokic has a 36.76% boom score probability that outpaces Harden’s 36.14%, and they will be owned at a similar 23% rate. That pace of public popularity puts Harden in the pole position with a 5.8 leverage score, while Jokic drops to -0.9 in the category. Many options along the optimal construction paths are likely to reach both stars as more value is added to the slate during the afternoon, but at this point Harden would be the choice in an either-or decision. Harden is under-owned and can be rostered at either shooting guard or small forward on the slate.
Things are not much different for Harden on the DraftKings slate. The Nets star loses both of his FanDuel positions and slots in at point guard instead, and he costs $11,200 against the site’s lower salary cap, reducing his overall probability marks slightly. The guard’s 57.7-point median projection still plays very nicely on the slate, and with extreme value options that are not available on the blue site, it is easy enough to roster Harden aggressively. With a 25.2% optimal lineup appearance rate, Harden is the second most frequently optimal player on this site as well, falling in behind the same value play that he did across town. Harden is the top pay-up option on DraftKings. He outpaces Jokic’s 15.2% optimal lineup rate by 10 percentage points, and he has a 34.55% boom score probability compared to Jokic’s 27.29% on the slate. With the Nuggets’ star center coming in at a huge $12,600 salary, Harden stands out as the clear-cut better option on the slate tonight, though rostering Jokic’s incredible production potential is rarely a true mistake. In this situation Harden comes up as an excellent play for lineup differentiation. He is projected for just 18.1% public ownership on the slate, leaving him at a highly desirable 7.1 leverage score. Do not over think this; Harden should be rostered ahead of the field unless the leverage situation changes dramatically.
Cedi Osman: DraftKings — $4,600 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $4,400 — SF/PF
Outside of the star-caliber players, the major inflection point on tonight’s slate as things currently stand appears to be Cavaliers wing Cedi Osman, who is amassing major shares of popularity on both sites tonight. Osman is coming up as the slate’s most negatively leveraged player on both sites, but at his salary in the slate’s current structure, he appears to be the most important piece of packing the lineup-building suitcase tonight. Osman is projected for 33.2 minutes, and he is likely to take over the team’s primary facilitation duties in the absence of Darius Garland once again. Osman posted a 26.4-point FanDuel score in 38 minutes the last time out. He shot a miserable 3-for-16 from the field in that contest, which dramatically cut into what should have been a premium fantasy performance. As the piece that made the offensive engine run, Osman picked up a surprising 12 assists in that contest, if his shot falls with any typical regularity tonight, this is potentially a free square for fantasy point production at a cheap price industrywide.
On FanDuel, Osman is the worst leverage play in the entire night of NBA DFS action at -21.1. He fits into lineup constructions at either forward position and costs just $4,400 on the site, which helps him land in the optimal lineup in a slate-leading 35.2% of Awesemo’s simulations. The field is projected to include Osman in 56.3% of lineups, and his popularity will probably climb through the afternoon. Still, with a 51.22% boom score probability and the options that including him in lineups can provide for other positions, Osman comes up as a major piece of value who is more building block than he is a poison pill. The forward should be rostered at or about where the field is coming in unless additional value plays open with similar upside and positioning. As things stand, the comparable player is shooting guard Torrey Craig, who costs $4,700 and lands in the optimal lineup in just 10.9% of simulated slates or Dorian Finney-Smith who is a small forward or shooting guard who appears in the optimal lineup in 13.6% of simulations for just $4,200 but is owned 22.6% of the time for a -9.0 leverage score and a 24.59-point median projection that trails the expectation for Osman’s range of production tonight. He is projected for a 30.04-point median FanDuel score. Osman is a highly playable piece in spite of his popularity, though a slight undercut would not be the wildest proposition on the blue site tonight.
Osman is extremely popular on the DraftKings slate as well. The shooting guard or small forward positioning he is assigned on the site allows him to be rostered in five different places in a lineup, creating a major amount of flexibility that helps him land in the optimal lineup in 31.7% of simulated slates, making him the site leader on this site as well. Osman is projected for a 31-point median score on the site and he has an excellent 48.18% boom score probability that is the top option on the board as well. Osman is carrying a -16.2 leverage score. He has a 48.5% ownership projection on the DraftKings slate, but it is a metric that can be overlooked as long as differentiation is created in other positions. Osman helps to unlock potential in other positions, in addition to offering upside of his own. His popularity is justifiable and tolerable, and he can be rostered for tournament play at or around the field.
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