A short Sunday afternoon slate of NBA DFS tips off at 6 pm ET in direct competition to the second football game of the day. The slates have reduced prize pools across the industry, but there are still worthwhile contests and the notion that the attention of the public is focused elsewhere is worth chasing. The basketball slate includes a Nuggets vs Bucks game that has star power and the night’s highest total at 232.5, but there are a pair of games totaled in the high-220s as well. Both the Jazz vs Timberwolves and Spurs vs Suns games are carrying appealing expectations, with the former coming at 227.5 and the latter at 228. Getting to pieces of those contests in concert with positively leveraged low-owned upside plays from around the slate is a sound approach for upside in NBA DFS lineups on both sites tonight.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With five games on the slate, this article will focus on several of the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Tre Jones: DraftKings — $3,000 — PG | FanDuel — $4,100 — PG
When it comes to easy value, you can’t do much better than a $3,000 point guard projected for nearly 30 minutes of playing time, regardless of the name on his jersey. Tre Jones has been a 0.83 fantasy points per minute contributor across all situations this season, but he has averaged just 12.3 minutes a night in his 40 games and sees just 14.8% usage when he is on the floor. The guard has a 54.2% true shooting percentage and a respectable 24% assist rate, but the play is truly driven by the price, Jones should easily exceed the five fantasy points he posted in three minutes in his last outing, expecting something around his season-long rate in a game where he will be starting in place of Dejounte Murray and Derrick White as the primary facilitator. Jones has excellent value on the DraftKings slate, and he is not lacking for utility on the blue site, making him a top priority for lineup building across the NBA DFS industry tonight.
On the FanDuel slate, Jones comes in at $4,100 and he is the fifth-most frequently optimal player on the entire slate at 37.3%. The point guard is projected for a 27.91-point median FanDuel score and his cheap price has him at an excellent 47.15% boom score probability. Technically at negative leverage and heavy 39.6% ownership, Jones is no secret, but he is a highly probable play from the low end of salary who deserves consideration for ownership at least around the level at which the field is including him in rosters, if not beyond it. Jones seems like more of a foundational piece of chalk than a bad decision at these playing time projections and prices. The point guard is the third-most frequently optimal player at his position, trailing only Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson, who both can be rostered at either guard position. Jones will be in a highly totaled matchup and he has plenty of time to pay off the low salary on the FanDuel slate, he is a comfortable value play unless something changes with his expected playing time.
Even if Jones bleeds off minutes in his projection he will remain a strong value play on the DraftKings slate for just $3,000. The point guard is in the optimal lineup in 49.3% of Awesemo’s simulated slates, by far the highest optimal lineup appearance rate on the entire slate, landing more than 16 percentage points above the second-highest rate, superstar center Nikola Jokic at 33.2%. Jones is projected for a 28.5-point DraftKings night and he has a ridiculous 72.8% boom score probability. The field is projected to include the point guard in their lineups 58.7% of the time, pushing him into negative leverage territory at -9.4, but he is such an easy value piece that it would be a mistake to leave him on the table in most situations. Rostering Jones is only partly about his popularity and probability metrics, it is more important to consider the lineup combinations that his minium-price salary unlocks, regardless of how frequently the field is getting to him. Jones should be in the majority of DraftKings lineups on this slate.
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Jrue Holiday: DraftKings — $7,600 — PG | FanDuel — $7,700 — PG/SG
A potentially under-appreciated midrange piece in an excellent situation for production, Milwaukee point guard Jrue Holiday looks like a reasonable option on both sites that the field is not giving enough consideration. Holiday has posted a 1.13 fantasy points per minute rate throughout all situations this season, seeing 23.6% usage. He produced a marginally higher rate, 1.14 fantasy points per minute, on 21.7% usage, so it is reasonable to say he has slightly disappointed with the added opportunity to create scoring. Holiday has still been a solid option when priced appropriately, however, and he comes in with a 57.2% true shooting percentage as well as a 30.1% assist rate that cannot be ignored on this slate. Holiday posted 46 FanDuel points in 35 minutes in the team’s most recent outing, keeping his three-game average at the same 1.13 per-minute rate in 33 minutes a night. Holiday simply is who he is, but that description includes being slightly under-owned on both sites tonight, which could be worth targeting.
On the DraftKings slate, Holiday is the 12th most frequently optimal player at any position, coming in at 17%. The point guard ranks behind several other options at his position, but only Doncic and Jones cannot be rostered at a second position, and the utility spot is helpful in rotating them through combinations on this site. Holiday can be paired with any number of options from atop the board on DraftKings at his fair price, he is projected for a 37.6-point median score on the DraftKings slate and he has an 18.85% boom score probability, but the public is projected for just 16.1% ownership, leaving him a sliver of leverage at 0.9. Holiday is affordable and we have plenty of salary to spend on the DraftKings slate, it is easy to get beyond the field’s generally low ownership, rostering him in 25% of 150 lineups would not be a terribly risky proposition.
Holiday picks up shooting guard eligibility on the FanDuel slate, where he is the eighth-most frequently optimal player at any position at his 26.2% mark. The Bucks guard is projected for 37.02 FanDuel points and he has a 19.76% boom score probability tonight, putting him just inside the top-20 in the category. Holiday is a good play for leverage, he has a 1.2 leverage score nad he is projected for 25% public popularity, getting to him at or around that rate seems appropriate, but it would not be entirely wrong to exceed that mark if desired. There is raw point-scoring upside in getting to the quality guard on both sites tonight, Holiday is an underappreciated asset.
Looking to the Stars
With a ton of value already on the board in the mid-afternoon, it makes sense to look at some of the stars on the slate to weigh which may be the best in compiling a stars and scrubs lineup on both sites. Regardless of where one is playing NBA DFS tonight, all three of Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo look like stellar options this evening. On the DraftKings slate, the three superstars – in the order they just appeared – rank second, fourth, and sixth when sorted by optimal lineup rate. Jokic and Doncic outpace the Bucks star by a slight margin, the Nuggets center comes in ta a 33.2% optimal lineup appearance rate, while Doncic is optimal lin 32.8% of DraftKings simulations, with Antetokounmpo landing just a few points lower at 30.6% optimal. It is noteworthy that Jokic is projected for a 61.3-point median score, while the Mavericks guard comes in at 54.6 and the Bucks forward is at a 55.8-point projection. The points expectation is covered by a spread from Jokic’s $12,400 salary to the $11,200 at which we find Doncic, but Jokic still leads the way with a 29.25% boom score probability, making him the top choice in the trio when we also account for his excellent 4.1 leverage score. Doncic comes in with a 24.32% boom score mark compared to the 20.98% at which Antetokounmpo appears, but he is also at a -3.0 leverage score while his peer comes in at nearly perfect ownership. Despite the highest price, Jokic is the top option on the DraftKings slate and he should be rostered aggressively ahead of the field, Doncic is the second-highest priority among the star-caliber players, but it makes sense to get to a larger share of Antetokounmpo lineups as well.
On the blue site, the stars align similarly, all three of the players at bar rank in the top six by optimal lineup appearance rate on the FanDuel slate as well, but they fall differently on the site. Jokic drops to the third-best option by optimal rate, partly because of his hefty $11,500 salary and partly because of the site’s limited singular center approach. Antetokounmpo climbs to the top of the board, he has an amazing 53.4% optimal lineup appearance rate on the FanDuel slate tonight, by comparison, Jokic is at 35.2% in sixth place. Doncic falls second on the board with an also-excellent 43.9% but the idea of getting to the Bucks superstar with a 9.9 leverage score when he is optimal in more than half of all simulated slates for the site makes for an appealing target. At 43.5% public ownership, Antetokounmpo will be popular, but his leverage score is the top mark among all players on the slate, making him easily the top play overall before even considering his 54.28-point median projection and 32.39% boom score probability. Between Doncic and Jokic, the guard lands in the optimal lineup far more frequently, but the center has the better boom score probability, coming up with a 36.39% as compared to a 23.16% mark for Doncic. Either option is strong, Doncic can be utilized in a variety of combinations as he has eligibility at both guard spots, but Jokic is the most frequently optimal center on the slate by a wide margin. Both options come with targetable positive leverage scores, they make for a true toss-up on this slate, but all three of these players should be rostered ahead of the field’s projected rate.
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