NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

After the trade deadline pandemonium that we saw across yesterday’s slate, the seven-game Friday NBA DFS lineup seems tame by comparison. There are, of course, numerous situations to monitor, including the status of several new acquisitions. The slate has already seen several pieces of news land, and it seems that much of the status information about newly acquired players will be available ahead of lock. There are situations worth monitoring in the news, but several of the major value and upside components are already established. The slate features seven games, with the high-point landing in a game between the Timberwolves and Bulls that peaks to a 241-point total that is higher than any in recent memory. That game has major scoring appeal in fantasy basketball, but there are good options from around the league. The Spurs vs Hawks game is carrying a 233-point total, and the contest between the Hornets and Pistons is in the mid-220s and features excellent mid-range options on both sides.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With seven games on the slate, this article will focus on a variety of the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Goga Bitadze: DraftKings $4,700 — C | FanDuel $5,000 — C

With the Pacers sending Domantas Sabonis out of town ahead of the deadline, the minutes should be secure going forward for big man Goga Bitadze, who has performed well in his minimal 11.2 minutes per night role so far this season. Bitadze has been a 1.02 fantasy basketball points-per-minute performer across all situations this season, but he has been at just 0.8 per minute over the team’s three most recent games while receiving 23 minutes a night. With a 28.2-minute projection this evening, Bitadze should have ample time and opportunity to provide a required ceiling score on both NBA DFS sites. He should be able to improve on his 50.6% true shooting percentage, 7.9% assist rate and 12.2% rebounding percentage over the last third of the season. He averaged 1.17 fantasy basketball points per minute last year. There is more upside and on any given slate Bitadze could be the key to success given his currently low asking price across the industry.

Bitadze is a center-only option on the FanDuel slate tonight, which bites into his overall value by optimal lineup appearance rate. The Pacers’ big man lands in the top lineup in 11.8% of simulated slates, ranking him 28th overall on the site and seventh among eligible centers. Of the big men ranked ahead of Bitadze by optimal lineup rate on the blue site, only slate-leading Joel Embiid lacks power forward eligibility. The opportunity cost in leaving Embiid’s 25.5% optimal lineup rate and 47.15% boom score probability on the shelf is significant, but not insurmountable given the massive price discrepancy. Bitadze has a 37.11% boom score mark at his price, the second-highest mark among all eligible centers on the FanDuel slate. Rostering Bitadze ahead of the field’s projected 9.4% ownership is easy and advisable. He has a 2.4 leverage score and he can be targeted for twice the field’s ownership while still spending the remaining center-only shares getting ahead of the public’s 33.9% ownership projection on Embiid. Leaving a few shares for superstars Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns, or even Rudy Gobert or Clint Capela is also still viable, but the top center options are Bitadze and Embiid, with a litany of power forward eligible options in between them and these other center-only stars.

On the DraftKings slate, Bitadze is an even more valuable piece that comes at just a $4,700 price tag. That mark lands Bitadze as the third-most frequently optimal player on the DraftKings slate at any position and slots him as the clear-cut top center play on the board. Bitadze has a 6.1 leverage score and should be rostered well ahead of the 15% rate at which the public is including him in lineups. The fair price has him at a slate-leading 37.18% boom score probability. Embiid is the next-most frequently optimal center and has the next-highest boom score probability on the board, but he will be at a negative leverage mark on the DraftKings slate while pulling in 20.7% raw ownership. The pairing of big men in the center and utility position on the site is extremely viable, Bitadze’s lack of popularity helps offset anything related to Embiid’s leverage score, and the low salary helps pay for the second star in another position in the lineup. Bitadze appears to be a key piece of lineup construction for DraftKings NBA DFS this evening.

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Facundo Campazzo: DraftKings $3,000 — PG | FanDuel $3,500 — PG

A minimum-salary player with a 23-minute playing time projection has value on any slate. That is the situation projected for Denver point guard Facundo Campazzo this evening, despite the guard averaging just 10.1 minutes over the team’s 10 most recent games and five minutes per game over the last five. Campazzo is an extremely low-cost value piece who should step into around the projected minutes in the absence of teammate Monte Morris. Campazzo and Bones Hyland will share the minutes in the backcourt, which should leave both players with an opportunity to create fantasy basketball points, but Campazzo’s compellingly low cost creates the better NBA DFS situation across both sites. Campazzo averages 0.84 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, needing just 14.5% usage to get to that level. With a 12.8% usage rate in his limited role last year, he put up a 0.78 per-minute mark. Campazzo has a 52.5% true shooting percentage and a 27.9% assist rate this year. He is a strong option for production from the absolute bottom of the salary tier.

On FanDuel, Campazzo lands with an 8.3% optimal lineup appearance rate for essentially no ownership. The point guard is projected for just 0.7% popularity on the site, though that mark will clearly grow if he is announced as a starter or if his playing time projection becomes less fragile. With a 22.9-minute expectation, Campazzo is projected for just 18.09 FanDuel points in his median NBA projection, but a still-good 12.05% boom score probability that has appeal at the 7.6 leverage score at which one can buy the minimum-salary production in the right situation. Campazzo is not a player that gamers should go out of their way to include in a lineup, but if dropping to the salary floor buys additional upside in other spots, he is certainly a viable option unless news changes the outlook tonight.

Campazzo gains value on the DraftKings slate where he comes in at the minimum $3,000 salary as a point guard only option. At that price, Campazzo lands 14th overall on the slate with a 13.8% optimal lineup appearance rate. Among eligible point guards, Campazzo lands sixth, falling in place behind stars LaMelo Ball, Dejounte Murray, Trae Young, and mid-range options Terry Rozier and D’Angelo Russell. Among those options, only Rozier and Russell offer multi-position eligibility, but there is enough flexibility in the group to allow for many combinations of the top-end guards on the DraftKings slate. Campazzo slots in with just a 17.9-point median projection, but he has an 18.13% boom score probability and just a 2.4% ownership projection. The 11.4 leverage score on a minimum-priced player has value, Campazzo needs minutes to reach a true upside score, but he is not without the potential to get to the mid-to-upper twenties, given enough playing time. This play requires monitoring going into lock, and gamers should be careful to not over-extend either ownership shares or expectations, but Campazzo is at least an interesting option to consider tonight.

Charlotte Hornets

With a seemingly easy matchup against the lowly Pistons, the Hornets’ primary cast is landing at or near the top of the board for NBA DFS action on Friday, two days after their entire top-five in Awesemo tools was made up of Charlotte’s starting lineup. The team will be playing in the game with the third-highest total tonight, and the players land at fair mid-range prices across both sites. On FanDuel, four of the primary Hornets have optimal lineup appearance rates above 20%, while two players land that high on DraftKings, with a third coming in as a 15.4% optimal play. That option is $7,300 guard Terry Rozier, who fits in at either guard position and offers a 21.5% boom score probability on the site, while forward Miles Bridges falls off the list from site to site, coming in with just an 8.1% optimal rate on DraftKings but a 20.8% mark on FanDuel where he costs just $7,400. The FanDuel slate also includes newly acquired Montrezl Harrell, who comes at a $4,800 price with power forward and center eligibility and lands in the optimal lineup 13.1% of the time. Harrell is not an option on the DraftKings slate.

On FanDuel, LaMelo Ball leads the way at a 35.8% optimal rate and a 45.14-point median projection. His three primary teammates all have fantasy point projections in the 30s, Bridges is the next-highest option at 37.17, with Rozier carrying a 35.62 mark and Kelly Oubre Jr. coming in at a 31.39-point mark. The players fall in order, with Ball at the top by boom score probability as well. He costs just $8,400 at point guard and he has a 39.37% boom score probability, making him a prime target despite a -9.7 leverage score. Ball is a top overall option on the slate regardless of the public’s ownership. Rozier, Bridges, Oubre and Harrell all come in with boom score marks above 20% on the FanDuel slate. They can be rostered in a rotation in combination with Ball or together without him, but adding more than two to three Hornets on a slate of this nature may not be the best path toward a ceiling score. While the players are likely to hit their solid median NBA projections, the expectation of more than three of them hitting a ceiling score seems to stretch credulity in this matchup. All of the Hornets are at negative leverage on the FanDuel slate, there are good reasons to roster them, but they will require differentiation at other positions. Harrell is the lowest-owned of the relevant options, checking in at 18.9%, while Ball is at a 45.5% public popularity projection. Even P.J. Washington is drawing a 23% ownership mark, despite just a 9.3% optimal rate. The Hornets will be extremely popular and are very likely to be one of the most slate-relevant teams on the board on Friday night.

On the DraftKings slate, the options from Charlotte do not explode off the page in quite the same fashion, which helps temper the public ownership slightly. Ball is still the top option, despite a salary bump to $9,000 at the point guard spot. Ball has a 24.5% optimal lineup rate and a 33.5% boom score probability, but he comes in at a -5.2 leverage score against the public’s nearly 30% ownership mark. Oubre and Rozier will both be owned in the mid-20% range as well, putting them both at negative leverage marks as well. Oubre is a -4.5 play while Rozier is at a -7.1 with his 15.4% optimal lineup rate. Bridges is a lower-quality option for the higher $8,100 price, but he picks up eligibility at small forward and power forward on the slate, and he is always interesting with less than 10% public ownership. Bridges is projected for a 37.7-point median score. He has upside beyond that, and from a raw ownership perspective, he could be an interesting play despite the lackluster probability metrics.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.