NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

Tonight’s later start for daily fantasy basketball gives us some opportunity to absorb early news and make decisions – decisions that will absolutely change with the entire slate as we get different news later, but that’s the fun – and play the swapping game with some of the slate’s key pieces of chalk. There are several interesting values and value-range pivots available on a short slate, and only a few big name stars to pay all the way up for. Tonight is going to be made or broken by a few very specific players. With five games, we’ll be looking at some of those interesting value plays and potential decisions for lineup building. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Xavier Tillman – Memphis Grizzlies

DraftKings — $3,400 – PF/C | FanDuel — $4,100 — PF

With Memphis providing an early break for NBA daily fantasy basketball players by announcing the absences of Brandon Clarke, Kyle Anderson and Dillon Brooks would all get the night off tonight, significant value has emerged around the Grizzlies. Power forward Xavier Tillman stands out among the Grizzlies when sorting by optimal lineup appearance rate on both sites. He is expected to get a solid block of minutes and should see a chance to hit a ceiling outcome. Across all situations this season, Tillman has a 26.4% rebounding percentage and a 13.6% assist percentage, along with 15.2% usage. Depending on how court time is distributed, we could see portions of the game where these rates expand. The overall minutes projection is more than enough to thrust him into relevance even if the rates decline slightly rebounding alongside Jonas Valanciunas, for example.

Tillman costs just $3,400 on DraftKings and he can be played at both the power forward and center spots, making him extremely valuable on the slate. Tillman ranks first on the site by optimal lineup appearance rate, with his monster 42.0%. That number is nearly equaled by his boom score probability, which lands at 40.8% in this matchup, but the public is not on him with nearly enough frequency. Tillman has an incredible 15.3 leverage score, that is a major outlier for a play this good. I expect things will draw closer to even as we approach lock, but even at even or somewhat negative leverage, the play appears too strong from a value perspective. Tillman will be very good and is likely to be a key building block for optimal constructions on this slate.

On FanDuel, the play is almost as sharp. Tillman will be owned by just 18% of the public as of our most recent update, and he lands in the optimal lineup in 33.7% of FanDuel simulations. The 0.96 fantasy point per minute producing power forward is pulling down a 39.2% boom score probability and stands out as one of the best plays on the slate, and an absolutely key piece of the puzzle on the blue site tonight as well.

LeBron James – Los Angeles Lakers

DraftKings — $10,200 — PG/SF / FanDuel — $10,500 – SF

LeBron James has popped up in this space more than once recently, and for good reason. With Anthony Davis out for the Lakers, James is and will be the focal point on a nightly basis. The team revolves around their superstar and, while he does not see a dramatic uptick in usage, even a few percentage points at his already lofty rates is significant. For the season, LeBron sees 33.6% usage when Davis is off the court, an uptick from his 30.9% usage in all situations.

On the FanDuel slate, James stands out at the very top of the board among all players. His optimal lineup appearance rate of 49.6% is staggering for a player at his salary and the public is not getting to him frequently enough. James has a 15.9 leverage score that does not correlate at all with his odds of being a requirement for success tonight. Roster LeBron James, worry about everything else afterward.

On DraftKings, James adds point guard eligibility but the general flexibility of the site impacts his optimal lineup appearance rate, taking some of the luster off the play. James is still in the optimal lineup in 34.7% of simulations for the site, which ranks second only to the extreme value of Xavier Tillman, and he will be under-owned on the site as well, though the leverage score drops to 4.8. LeBron James has a 39.9% boom score probability, if those odds of getting a LeBron ceiling game for your money tonight aren’t enticing, we just play NBA DFS differently.

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John Konchar – Memphis Grizzlies

DraftKings — $3,200 — PG/SF / FanDuel — $3,500 — SG

With most of the slate’s early value coming from the Grizzlies, we’re taking a look at an interesting tournament pivot for both sites. Minutes and opportunity are open in the Grizzlies rotation tonight, and both Konchar and Desmond Bane will see significant run, while sharing positional eligibility for daily fantasy basketball purposes. This creates an interesting situation where Awesemo has the players separated by five minutes in the projections, which results in salary differentials creating similar boom score probabilities and optimal lineup rates. The public seems to be heading more toward Bane, so opportunity could exist around Konchar, particularly in the event he should pick up just a few additional minutes; so much the better if he steals them from Bane.

On FanDuel, Konchar slots in with a 12.6% optimal lineup appearance rate, which is not eye-popping, but this is a focused pivot play for value and he will only be owned by around five percent of the field. Konchar comes in at the flat minimum on the site, creating a 31.2% boom score probability for his projected time; he has an 8.0 leverage score that draws the attention. By comparison, Bane will be in 11.4% of public rosters and appears in 18.3% of optimal lineups, though he brings a lower 28.0% boom score probability to the table and costs more. Both players are appealing, Bane is also under-owned at a 6.9 leverage score, he will definitely be in my lineups tonight. The highlight on Konchar is to illustrate how short-slate value plays can emerge from more off-the-board places.

On DraftKings, Konchar picks up eligibility at the point guard and small forward spots, while Bane is a shooting guard or small forward, meaning we can easily roster both players together in various combinations if we need extreme value. Once again, Konchar picks up relevance for his lack of attention. He is drawing just a 15.9% ownership projection and has a healthy 25.9% boom score probability at just $3,200 on the site. Bane provides a 27.3% boom score probability, and both players are live in the optimal lineup a significant amount of the time. Konchar comes up 25.9% of the time, while Bane appears in the optimal lineup 28.5% of the time in DraftKings simulations. Both are under-owned on this site as well, but the highlight is Konchar and his 10.6 leverage score for $600 less than his comparable teammate. I expect ownership to catch up more to Bane out of the pair, making Konchar a very interesting movable piece on the site tonight.

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Enes Kanter — Portland Trailblazers

DraftKings — $6,900 — C / FanDuel — $6,200 — C

There is potential for Enes Kanter to put up a dominant performance on this slate when we simply consider the on-paper matchup he will see tonight. With a 30.2 minute projection from Awesemo, the models agree, Kanter has a very high median projection on both sites tonight, and he should see significant opportunity in the thin Portland frontcourt. For the season, Kanter has a dominant 40%+ rebounding rate, which should play well in this matchup.

On FanDuel, where we only get one crack at the optimal center play, Kanter comes up as just that in 34.2% of simulations, leading the slate at the position by nearly double the rate of the second ranked center. Kanter provides a boom score better than half the time, with probability landing at 50.1%. He will be owned at a big clip, coming up in 43.3% of public lineups, which will probably trend high as we get toward lock. Still, Kanter looks like an excellent popular option for the slate, and in pre-crunch status I expect to be well beyond the field on him on a somewhat thin center slate.

On DraftKings, we have many moving pieces that play well between the power forward and center positions, and the flexibility brings Kanter’s marks down significantly. He appears in the optimal lineup 22.0% of the time, which is still excellent for the position, second only to Xavier Tillman, but there is a plateau of options behind him who can mix and match at similar rates and lower ownership. Kanter comes in with a -3.0 leverage score that is still highly playable, but does not look as good as similarly ranked options when we look by other categories.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.