NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

We have a short but interesting looking slate lined up for Thursday’s daily fantasy basketball action. With just five games on the slate, things will be more focused, with ownership concentrated around a few pieces of chalk and differentiation playing a key role in accessing the very top of GPP standings. Two of the five games are totaled well below the 220-point mark, and only one game is pushing toward 230 in the mid-afternoon, so the slate is without an obvious go-to game, instead providing numerous quality plays from several games. With five games on tap, we’ll be looking at the a few of the main building blocks and potentially try to find a key lower-owned pivot or two. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

[DAYTONA]

Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimized Lineups + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Kemba Walker – Boston Celtics

DraftKings – $6,500 – PG | FanDuel – $5,500 – PG

With a $1,000 salary difference from site to site, Walker is a different play depending on where you make your daily fantasy basketball home. He has been trending toward a full return to his regular minutes, up to 31.3 per game over the team’s last five. In that stretch he is averaging 16 real-life points, along with 4 rebounds, 4.5 assists and just 1 turnover per game — good but not great fantasy production. We know that there is more to Walker, however; his 1.02 fantasy points per minute this season are down significantly from his 1.10 mark last year.

On DraftKings Walker costs $6,500 and is a reasonable option at the point guard spot. His optimal-lineup rate is fourth on the slate and ranks first among eligible point guards. Two of the players ahead of him are less expensive shooting guards, which is relevant when we consider the guard position, as both also cost less. Walker’s 15.9% boom-score probability comes up higher than both of those players, and he provides a positive leverage score of 2.7. With the slate below 20% public exposure, it should be easy to get beyond the field to create some opportunity in DraftKings NBA contests.

On FanDuel the play looks like a foundational piece of our optimal constructions tonight. Walker is priced down significantly for his talent, role, opportunity and history, with the site placing him at $5,500. This is pushing Walker into 39.3% of optimal lineups in Awesemo’s FanDuel simulations, leading the slate at any position. The low salary has him carrying a high boom-score probability as well, landing at 40.6% likelihood. While he will be very popular, with public exposure pushing toward 40%, Walker’s leverage score is just about even at 0.3, and I still want to get well above the field. There is simply not a more likely point-per-dollar play on the board with this type of upside tonight.

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Eric Gordon – Houston Rockets

DraftKings – $6,200 – PG/SG / FanDuel – $5,900 – SF

Full disclosure, Gordon is one of my least favorite players to roster for daily fantasy basketball purposes. That is not to say that I do anything to bypass him, I just never feel comfortable with the scoring-dependent guard in my lineups. As we discuss on countless shows and at every opportunity, it is important to remove opinions like that from your process as much as possible, which is why I will still have plenty of Gordon shares in my life once again tonight.

Gordon has been a strong, steady contributor for the Rockets over the team’s last five games, averaging 32.6 minutes a night, while many of his teammates are in and out of the lineup. Gordon has contributed 22.8 real-life points per game, with a 47.7% field goal percentage (.611 true shooting for the season) over that stretch. Gordon needs his shot to fall since he contributes just a 9.2% rebounding rate and a 17% assist rate, averaging 4 rebounds and 2.8 assists over the five-game sample. Those peripherals were largely wiped out by his 2.8 turnovers per game in the same stretch.

Still, if he were not so scoring dependent, he would be a higher-priced player. The ticket price for Gordon is at a point where he looks like a very high-end play on both sites tonight. On DraftKings Gordon ranks seventh overall on the site, coming up in the optimal lineup in 17.2% of simulations, ranking him second among eligible point guards and putting him on the same tier as Walker and the other options we discussed in his section above. Gordon is also shooting guard eligible on the site, with the flexibility adding to his appeal. He has an 11.2% boom-score probability that ranks slightly below those higher-end options, but he makes up for it by providing a 6.7 leverage score, with the field trailing well behind the frequency with which Gordon will be an optimal selection tonight.

On FanDuel Gordon costs less and looks even better. As a $5,900 shooting guard, Gordon lands in the optimal lineup 32.3% of the time, second highest on the blue site. He comes up with an 18.8% boom-score probability, and the field is trailing well behind him on this site as well. Gordon has a second-on-the-slate 8.7 leverage score on FanDuel; the public is well behind on a few quality plays tonight, Gordon chief among them.

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Nikola Vucevic – Orlando Magic

DraftKings – $9,400 – C / FanDuel – $9,800 – C

Until further notice, Vucevic should be considered a plug-and-play option, particularly on FanDuel. The opportunity has simply been too great, the production more than on par, and the pricing has not truly responded. Vucevic is once again the best center play on both sites tonight. In the four games since power forward Aaron Gordon left the lineup with an injury, Vucevic has averaged 35 minutes a night, putting up 27 real-life points, 15 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.1 stocks per game, seeing upticks in usage and rebounding rates and creating some monster fantasy totals for the salary investment he has required over the stretch.

On FanDuel, where we can roster just one player at the position, Vucevic is third overall on the slate by optimal-lineup rate. He comes up in 28.6% of optimal lineups in Awesemo’s FanDuel simulations, leading Portland’s Enes Kanter by more than 6 percentage points and well over double the rate of third-ranked DeMarcus Cousins. Vucevic is still probably underpriced at only $9,800; his boom-score probability remains stratospheric at 39.8%, easily leading the position. The public is either shy about paying up or suffering from some Vucevic fatigue. He is under-deployed and has a projected 4.0 leverage score. I want all the Vucevic I can fit on the blue site tonight.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Vucevic looks nearly as good. He costs even less, and we can roster him alongside one of the other center plays to double-dip at the position. Vucevic comes up with a 29.9% optimal-lineup rate, more than double that of Kanter on the site. He carries a 36.2% boom-score probability and is under-owned on this site as well, producing a 3.0 leverage score that should land him in a much heavier share of your lineups than where the public is projected to have him.

Shooting Guard

The shooting guard position is interesting across the two sites tonight. On FanDuel, where we have to roster two, there are more choices that look likely to provide the quality we need, given the more user-friendly pricing. The DraftKings slate is far stingier with options. We have three or four high-end choices and a lot of mix-and-match players who may be better left on the DFS bench tonight.

Gordon, who we covered above, ranks third at the position on DraftKings, trailing Terrence Ross and Andrew Wiggins, who both stand out for being equally uncomfortable players to put into your lineup. Ross has a 21.9% optimal-lineup rate and an 11.3% boom-score probability, while Wiggins pushes past him at 22.8% and 14.9%, respectively. Both make fine options, but Ross will be less popular, offering a very strong 7.0 leverage score. Pairing Ross and Gordon in a lineup is an excellent way to set yourself on a less frequently trod path toward the optimal lineup construction.

The duo also ranks among the top three options on FanDuel, though on the blue site Gordon is ahead of them both. Ross brings in a 25.6% optimal-lineup rate, a 21.8% boom-score probability and a solid 2.5 leverage score. Wiggins lands in the optimal lineup in 22.7% of our simulations, with a 17.3% boom-score probability that trails the top two options, but not by much. Wiggins is the most popular member of the group, with his ownership pushing toward 25% and his leverage score at -2.2. I have no problem rostering Wiggins at or slightly above the field, though I prefer the pair above him.

Continuing down the board on the blue site, we immediately notice several similarly rated options, including Miami’s Tyler Herro, who costs just $5,800 on the slate and lands in 21.9% of optimal lineups. Herro ranks down in the leverage category, however, coming up with a -2.8 leverage score and just a 12.2% boom-score probability. Those numbers push him easily into fourth place at best, and I could see trying to get to some Gary Trent Jr. or Victor Oladipo for better ownership marks. Trent has a 4.4 leverage score and a 15.3% optimal-lineup rate, while Oladipo is fairly priced and has a 12.8% optimal-lineup rate.

Getting to Herro on DraftKings stretches our probability. He comes up in the optimal lineup in just 6.2% of simulations on the site, though Trent lands in them 12.6% of the time and looks better. He costs just $6,000 on the site and adds point guard eligibility for $6,000. He has just an 8.8% boom-score probability, but there are not many players at the position who are much higher.

Star of his own sponsored Awesemo tournament on DraftKings where you can win EMac’s money a dollar at a time, Fred VanVleet is overpriced on FanDuel and only marginally in play on DraftKings. His $9,300 sticker price on the blue site is pushing the boom-score probability down to just 6.4%, and VanVleet appears in the optimal lineup less than 10% of the time in simulations. On DraftKings VanVleet is more affordable, but positional flexibility renders him less relevant. VanVleet comes up in only 8.0% of optimal lineups and has a 6.8% boom-score probability. He affords you slight leverage on both sites, coming up with a 2.4 score on FanDuel and a 3.0 on DraftKings, but the optimal rates suggest that he is more likely to take away from your upside at other positions than he is to contribute a slate-winning performance.

Of the 10 remaining players who are projected for at least 18 minutes at the shooting guard position in Awesemo’s projections tonight, no one lands in the optimal lineup more than 9.1% of the time (Josh Jackson), with the player projected for the most minutes in that group (Norman Powell, 29.2), landing in just 1.7% of optimal lineups from the bottom of the list. None of these players stands out on FanDuel for providing significant leverage, though Seth Curry appears to be wildly over-owned with a -12.8 leverage score that is easily avoided.

On DraftKings the options are even thinner. Including players we have already covered, there are only 12 at the position who provide more than a 2.0% optimal-lineup rate, with only five over 10% and two over 20%. The boom-score probability rates for players in that list are also in the range between 5 and 9%, with no one cracking the 10% mark after Gordon’s 11.2%. Shooting guard is simply a thin position on both sites tonight. It makes sense to ride the chalk on the key building blocks and mix in small shares of the various less-likely options.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.