Wednesday features a large 12-game slate as there are no NBA games tomorrow due to the Thanksgiving holiday. There will be news flying in throughout the day so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, starting with Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo.
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NBA DFS Boom: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $12,300 DraftKings/$11,800 FanDuel
22.9% DraftKings Boom/30.6% FanDuel Boom
After a great stud pick in Anthony Davis last night who went for 84.75 DraftKings points, Giannis Antetokounmpo will try to replicate that tonight. Despite six-straight games of shooting below 46% from the field, Giannis finally broke through his cold streak last game scoring 37 points and shooting 16 of 24 from the field against the Trail Blazers. Even though it seems like Giannis is struggling, he is still averaging over 30 points for the first time in his career and has posted a 1.73 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Playing against the Bulls has historically been a matchup that Giannis can exploit. Over his last 12 games in this matchup, Giannis is averaging 26.7 points and 13.1 rebounds per game while shooting 53.7% from the field. He has a double-double in 11 of those 12 games and that should be at minimum the outcome he provides tonight. Khris Middleton remains out, but Jrue Holiday is back to full strength. Among the elite players, Giannis has the highest boom percentage, especially on FanDuel where he should be prioritized. It is impossible to stop the Greek Freak and the Bulls certainly don’t have the answer.
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NBA DFS Boom: Marcus Morris: $5,700 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel
27.0% DraftKings Boom/38.7% FanDuel Boom
Despite winning nine of their last 12 games, the Clippers are nine-point road underdogs against the Warriors tonight as both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will be out due to injury. With both stars out that is a lot of usage to go around and one of the main beneficiaries is forward Marcus Morris. Like Giannis, Morris should be prioritized on FanDuel due to his very cheap $4,900 salary. He has the highest boom percentage on FanDuel and is one of the better value plays on the slate. Morris is averaging 14.4 points per game, which ranks second on the Clippers behind George in scoring.
Playing against the Warriors has been an exploitable spot as they rank 27th in defensive rating this season allowing 118.0 points per game, which ranks as the second highest in the league. They also lead the league in pace (102.96), entering tonight’s games. The Clippers may only have a 106.75 implied team total, but with George and Leonard out, it is worth getting exposure to Morris on this slate. He ranks fifth in Stokastic’s first ownership run on DraftKings, but leads the slate on FanDuel coming in at nearly 50%. Morris will be very popular, but it is deserving with George and Leonard out of the lineup.
NBA DFS Boom: Paul Reed: $3,700 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel
51.1% DraftKings Boom/32.8% FanDuel Boom
We’re going back to Paul Reed well after he was the best value on the slate last night. He came off the bench and played a season-high 31 minutes. Reed posted a double-double with 19 points and 10 rebounds and even had three steals and two blocks for 42 DraftKings points. With Joel Embiid still out, along with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey there is value on this 76ers team even when they are implied for only 105 points. Reed’s price didn’t budge on DraftKings where where he has by far the highest boom percentage on the slate. He has the fourth-highest tonight on FanDuel.
The Hornets are not a great defensive team, and they allow 52.6 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks 23rd in the league. They are also a poor rebounding team, so this may be crazy, but Reed could have another double-double in back-to-back games. There are so many great pay-up options on this slate including Giannis, that getting exposure to Reed despite being center-only eligible on both sites, is great for salary relief. In Stokastic’s projections, Reed is the best value on DraftKings and he comes in sixth on FanDuel. Go right back to Reed on this back-to-back.
NBA DFS Bust: Jayson Tatum: $10,700 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel
52.0% DraftKings Bust/50.4% FanDuel Bust
The Celtics have the best record in the league at 13-4 and Jayson Tatum is the main reason why. He continues to get better year in and year out as he is averaging a career-high 30.4 points per game this season. The main problem with Tatum tonight is he is questionable to play with an ankle sprain. It is rare to see Tatum miss a game, but make sure to monitor Stokastic’s Starting Lineups to see if Tatum is playing or not. Among the elite options, Tatum has the highest bust percentage due to his injury, but also the matchup against the Mavericks tough defense.
Playing against the Mavericks is normally a snooze fest as they have the second-lowest pace for back-to-back seasons. The pace of the Mavericks doesn’t allow for much production. They allow a league-best 105.3 points per game as they also rank fourth in defensive rating. The Celtics are still four-point home favorites but are implied for only 111 points. With so many other stud options on this slate, paying for Tatum on either site is difficult. In Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings, Tatum has an A grade, but a D value on DraftKings and a C value on FanDuel. Look elsewhere in the upper pricing tier.
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