NBA DFS Boom/Bust High-Upside Picks: Jarrett Allen

This Saturday features a middle-sized seven-game slate with plenty of ways to get different as so many pay-up options are available. Weekends are always flooded with news, so be sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.

Get one month of Stokastic+ Platinum FREE when you make your first deposit on PrizePicks

Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

~~NBA DFS Boom: Luka Doncic: $12,700 DraftKings/$11,800 FanDuel~~

~~28.3% DraftKings Boom/34.0% FanDuel Boom~~

After a disappointing finish last game, losing by 1 point at home, the Mavericks will get a chance to bounce back right away on this back-to-back against the Bulls. Luka Doncic was visibly upset going to the locker room after the Mavericks blew a late lead. On a relatively small slate, it is tough to fade Doncic even given his high salary. He leads the league in scoring with a career-high 32.9 points and also in DraftKings scoring with 62.7 per game. Doncic has a league-best six triple-doubles and a 37.6% usage rate and is currently leading in the MVP discussion. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are one game above .500 this season.

Players are much easier to pay up for on FanDuel, which is where Doncic leads this slate with the highest boom percentage at 34%. The Bulls do rank eighth in pace this season, and getting Doncic in a faster game will always provide more upside. There are a few other very strong pay-up options, but Doncic’s ceiling trumps them all. He may be the highest-priced player on both sites, but Doncic is also projected for over 5 fantasy points more than every other player in Stokastic’s projections. As a 2-point underdog, expect Doncic to do everything for this Mavericks team to stay competitive on the road.

Update: Doncic is resting tonight.

Latest NBA DFS Content

NBA DFS Boom: Jarrett Allen: $6,600 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel

30.0% DraftKings Boom/23.9% FanDuel Boom

Another team who blew a lead at home last night was the Cavaliers. They led by 8 points with 4:50 remaining and went on to lose by double digits. Donovan Mitchell was out with an injury, and he remains questionable tonight in another home matchup against the Thunder. With or without Mitchell on the floor, Jarrett Allen looks like a fantastic play in the mid-range. His salary did not move, and the matchup got a whole lot better. The Thunder rank 27th in both points allowed in the paint and rebounding percentage this season. Allen should dominate the paint and clean up the glass against this weak Thunder frontcourt.

Allen was in major foul trouble last night and still managed to get to 32 minutes in his second game back due to injury. He only had 9 points and eight rebounds, but a cupcake matchup potentially playing without Mitchell is a great bounce back spot. Allen has the fourth-highest boom percentage on DraftKings and ranks sixth on FanDuel. Having power forward and center eligibility on FanDuel is boosting his popularity. He ranks as the fourth-highest-owned player on both sites in Stokastic’s last ownership run. Expect an easy double-double from Allen with massive upside in this matchup.

NBA DFS Boom: Deni Avdija: $4,700 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel

35.0% DraftKings Boom/17.3% FanDuel Boom

Over the last two games, Deni Avdija has been one of the best values available. During those games, Avdija is stuffing the stat sheet averaging 12 points, seven rebounds, five assists, while capturing five total steals. He is shooting 52.6% from the field and has scored over 32 DraftKings points while playing 39 and 40 minutes in back-to-back games. Our projections have Avdija playing a conservative 33.6 minutes tonight and he still has the highest value on DraftKings. Prioritize Avdija on DraftKings where he also has the highest boom percentage on this seven-game slate.

The Wizards will continue to play without Bradley Beal, Rui Hachimura, and Will Barton which is the main reason Avdija is getting so much playing time lately. They are projected for a slate-low 107.5 points in a very tough matchup against the Clippers despite playing at home. The Wizards are 5.5-point home underdogs, so even though they have several players out, don’t get carried away attacking this team in fantasy tonight. Avdija is still a great play, especially on DraftKings given the low salary. Avdija won’t be a secret, though, as he currently is the highest-owned player on DraftKings by nearly 10%.

Join our FREE DISCORD!

NBA DFS Bust: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: $10,300 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel

55.0% DraftKings Bust/51.6% FanDuel Bust

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the second-highest bust percentage behind Damian Lillard, but Gilgeous-Alexander is in a much tougher matchup on the road against the Cavaliers. Both players have an A grade and D value on DraftKings and an A grade and C value on FanDuel in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings. Gilgeous-Alexander is having an incredible season and is the main reason the Thunder even have double-digit wins. He is averaging a career-high 31.1 points per game while shooting 50% from the field. With a 32.9% usage rate, Gilgeous-Alexander is heavily involved in the Thunder offense.

It is a little surprising the Thunder are only 6-point road underdogs against the Cavaliers. However, if Mitchell is out again for the Cavaliers this game may be much more competitive. Regardless, this total sits at only 222 points, which is the second lowest on the slate and Gilgeous-Alexander is priced over $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. In Stokastic’s projections, it is fairly obvious how bad of a value he is. Gilgeous-Alexander has worse than a -5 value on both sites, as the Cavaliers lead the league in defensive rating while allowing only 104.9 points per game. Fade the versatile Gilgeous-Alexander tonight.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!