NBA DFS Boom/Bust High-Upside Picks: Rudy Gobert Trending Up

Monday features another middle-sized seven-game slate with several really good games to target. There is injury news circulating already, so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.

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NBA DFS Boom: Luka Doncic: $12,700 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel

35.0% DraftKings Boom/36.0% FanDuel Boom

After missing last game due to rest/quadriceps injury, Luka Doncic is probable to play tonight in a great matchup at home against the Thunder. Doncic is by far the most expensive player on both sites, but it is deserving as he continues to lead the league in scoring with a career-high 32.9 points while also averaging a league-best 62.7 DraftKings points per game. FanDuel is much easier to pay-up for players, so Doncic always looks better on their site. He has the highest boom percentage on FanDuel, while he ranks fifth on DraftKings. Either way he is the best pay-up option on the slate.

The Mavericks are 8.5-point home favorites against the Thunder while they are implied for a slate-high 119 points. Having such a large-implied point total for a team who ranks second to last in pace this season, proves how big of an upside spot this is for Doncic who does literally everything for this team. The Thunder rank in the middle of the pack in defensive rating but are playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the league. In Stokastic’s projections, Doncic has the highest fantasy score by double-digits on DraftKings and nearly double-digits on FanDuel. He is expensive, but worth every penny.

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NBA DFS Boom: Rudy Gobert: $7,200 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel

40.6% DraftKings Boom/29.2% FanDuel Boom

The Timberwolves get a rematch against the Trail Blazers as they lost on the road Saturday night by only six points. They are still playing without Karl-Anthony Towns as they are four-point road underdogs yet again. This matchup had 242 total points last game and currently sits at a slate-high 230.5 points tonight. Rudy Gobert is the mid-range target, as he has averaged a large double-double with 20.7 points and 14.3 rebounds per game while shooting 67.6% from the field in his last three games. He ranks third in the league in rebounds for his first season with the Timberwolves.

Gobert is second on DraftKings in boom percentage and fifth on FanDuel as he is center-only eligible on both sites. The Trail Blazers are allowing 59.3 points in the paint per game over their last three contests, which ranks as the fourth-highest during that time. Gobert had 24 points on 8 of 11 shooting from the field while accumulating nine rebounds, four steals, and one block. He is much more popular on DraftKings where he ranks third in Stokastic’s last ownership run. Playing without Towns really boosts Gobert’s upside and makes him one of the better plays on the slate.

NBA DFS Boom: Deni Avdija: $4,900 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel

44.9% DraftKings Boom/28.3% FanDuel Boom

For some reason the salary on Deni Avdija has yet to increase despite putting up three-straight games with over 30 DraftKings points. During those three games Avdija is stuffing the stat sheet averaging 11.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 32 DraftKings points per game while playing. 39, 40, and 39 minutes. Stokastic’s projections have Avdija playing 36.3 minutes tonight as he is the best value play on DraftKings and the second-best on FanDuel. Avdija also has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and ranks just outside the top five on FanDuel.

The Wizards have lost six-straight games as they continue to play without their All-Star Bradley Beal and backup power forward Rui Hachimura. In a matchup against the Nets who are going in the opposite direction, the Wizards are six-point home underdogs implied for only 110.25 points. The Nets have really gotten better defensively now that Ben Simmons is healthy again, but they still rank below average in defensive rating. Given the salary and production that Avdija has provided lately, it should be no surprise that he ranks first on DraftKings and second on FanDuel in Stokastic’s last ownership run. Despite being popular, it will be very difficult to avoid getting exposure to Avdija especially on DraftKings.

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NBA DFS Bust: Jayson Tatum: $11,100 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel

53.0% DraftKings Bust/52.3% FanDuel Bust

The Celtics continue to be a wrecking ball as they are playing their second-to-last game on their six-game road trip. They lead the league with a record of 21-6 as Jayson Tatum has cemented himself as one of the favorites for league MVP. The last few games have been a little rough on Tatum as Jaylen Brown has stolen the show for the most part. Over the last five games, Tatum is averaging 23.4 points per game while only shooting 40.6% from the field. He has three games during that stretch where he failed to reach 40 DraftKings points. For a player who is the second-highest priced on both sites, that production won’t cut it.

Tatum’s lack of productivity is not deserving of this price increase, and it is showing in Stokastic’s tools. Tatum has the lowest value of a D on DraftKings and C on FanDuel among the top tier options with an A grade. He has a bust percentage of over 50% on both sites. Lastly, despite being the second-most expensive player on the slate, Tatum has the fifth-highest fantasy score in Stokastic’s projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel making him a strong fade candidate. It doesn’t help the Celtics are on the road against the Clippers who rank fifth in defensive rating allowing only 109.2 points per game. With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back, this is a very tough matchup for Tatum who hasn’t performed well as of late.

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