NBA DFS action on Saturday, Feb. 13, locks at 7:30 p.m. EST with a condensed four-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your lineups on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Malcolm Brogdon and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Saturday February 13
Yahoo Play of the Day – Malcolm Brogdon: Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 37.89 | DraftKings: 39.94
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 20.4% | FanDuel 39.9% | DraftKings 24.4%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $33 | FanDuel $7,200 | DraftKings $7,500
The recent game logs are not particularly sexy, though that has helped keep Malcom Brogdon’s salary at a manageable level. Indiana has lost six of their last eight games and they need to pull out of their tailspin. This is their third game in four nights though they did have yesterday off after winning in Detroit on Thursday. Their next game is back home on Monday against Chicago, so I am not overly concerned with Brogdon’s minutes.
Since the last time Victor Oladipo suited up for the Pacers, Brogdon is averaging 1.04 Yahoo fantasy points per minute. While that is by no means an eye-popping figure, it is a steady baseline rate of production. Tonight’s matchup is a nice one against a Hawks team that is allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions over their last ten games. The Pacers are favored by only a bucket so this projects to be a tightly contested tilt.
Brogdon should see 35-37 minutes and produce north of forty fantasy points. There is attainable upside with a chance to flirt with the fifty fantasy point plateau. On Yahoo, T.J. McConnell checks in at $13 and he is a nice complimentary piece to pair with his teammate.
Kevin Durant: Brooklyn Nets at Golden State Warriors
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 49.93 | DraftKings: 51.6
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 17.8% | FanDuel 25.1% | DraftKings 22.9%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $48 | FanDuel $10,000 | DraftKings $9,600
This will be the first time Kevin Durant has returned to Golden State while wearing an opposing jersey since his days with the Thunder. In the first meeting with the ‘Dubs in the seaason opener, Durant had an efficient 40 fantasy points in 24.6 minutes of action. KD has been in the health and safety protocol for the last week so he should be well rested and raring to go. Coach Steve Nash has said there will not be any minutes restriction for the former NBA MVP tonight. With DeAndre Jordan (personal) away from the team and Draymond Green on the other side, it would make sense to see Durant play most of the center minutes tonight along with Jeff Green.
Stephen Curry: Golden State Warriors vs. Brooklyn Nets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 50.39 | DraftKings: 54.2
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 26.2% | FanDuel 28.3% | DraftKings 25.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $48 | FanDuel $10,800 | DraftKings $10,100
Over his last half dozen games Stephen Curry has been sublime. During this stretch he has been lights out from the field making 56.0% of his field goals and an astounding 49.0% from beyond the arc on 13.8 three-point attempts per game. In this stretch he is averaging 35.0 minutes with 37.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.5 steals. This converts to 1.56 Yahoo fantasy points per minute and anything shy of fifty fantasy points tonight is going to be a disappointment. This matchup against his former teammate Kevin Durant boasts a 245.5 projected game total. Enjoy!
Good Value
John Wall: Houston Rockets at New York Knicks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 37.53 | DraftKings: 39.41
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 36.2% | FanDuel 39.2% | DraftKings 30.3%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $31 | FanDuel $7,500 | DraftKings $7,200
Victor Oladipo is slated to get the night off, so that means John Wall will be the lead guard for the Rockets. Over his last three games he has settled into a consistent 32-36 minutes and he is producing just shy of 1.2 Yahoo fantasy points per minute. Eric Gordon, Danuel House Jr, David Nwaba and Sterling Brown all will be chipping in to fill the void left by Oladipo. Currently they are shaping up as some of our better value options for this short four-game slate. Their various salaries and positional eligibility have each of them being better or worse than their teammates depending on your DFS site of choice.
Nerlens Noel: New York Knicks vs. Houston Rockets
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 17.43 | DraftKings: 15.31
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 15% | FanDuel 16.7% | DraftKings 9.1%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $10 | FanDuel $4,000 | DraftKings $3,900
This recommendation hinges entirely on the status of Mitchell Robinson. Last night Robinson left the game against Washington after fracturing his right hand. We do not currently have news of his status, but since this game tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET there is a reasonable chance we will know before lock. Nerlens Noel is the “direct backup” for Robinson and the two have not played a single minute alongside each other this season.
Noel is averaging 17.5 minutes per game off the bench with an impressive 2.0 blocks per game in his limited time. There is tremendous upside available to him if he were to draw the start in Robinson’s absence. That would give him the potential to see 25-30 minutes as the Knicks are going to need someone to battle in the paint with DeMarcus Cousins. Rookie Obi Toppin and veteran Taj Gibson are no match even for the current version of Boogie.
Risky Value
Jimmy Butler: Miami Heat at Utah Jazz
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 42.9 | DraftKings: 42.29
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 21.6% | FanDuel 22.7% | DraftKings 22.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $39 | FanDuel $9,000 | DraftKings $8,300
It appears that Jimmy Butler is gathering a fair amount interest on our condensed four-game slate. While he is a tremendous player, this is a difficult matchup tonight in Utah. Neither of these teams plays particularly fast and the Jazz have one of the best defensive efficiency ratings in the league. Butler’s salary has ticked up since his return from the health and safety protocol and it looks like Miami will have all of their players tonight with the exception of Goran Dragic.
Looking at the Awesemo Boom/Bust tool we can see that Butler has a 13.3% chance of being in the FanDuel optimal lineup tonight. His “boom” probability of scoring 5x his salary + 10 or 55 FanDuel points is 22.3% while his “bust” probability of scoring less than 5x his salary or 45 FanDuel points is 40.5%. My preference will be to let other gamers assume this risk.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Sterling Brown: HOU at NYK – $10
- T.J. McConnell: IND at ATL – $13
- Doug McDermott: IND at ATL – $11
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- John Wall: HOU at NYK – 1.45x multiplier
- DeMarcus Cousins: HOU at NYK – 1.65x multiplier
- Andrew Wiggins: GSW vs. BKN – 1.50x multiplier
Final Thoughts on the Saturday, Feb. 13 NBA DFS Slate
Tonight brings us a relatively compressed slate with the four tipoffs all within a 90 minute window. There is not much pending news other than the status of Mike Conley and Mitchell Robinson, though it seems there is always at least one surprise these days. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
