NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Alperen Sengun Has the Ball to Himself (February 1)

There are eight games tonight with the postponement of Wizards-Pistons. As of writing, there is no great value to be had with NBA DFS picks. There is always a pretty good chance that some value will open up with news of a player resting or a change to a starting lineup, so be sure to pay attention to news and check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to hear great analysis of how the news changes the slate. If no news comes opening up some value, this will be a great slate to lean into the Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool to help make DraftKings lineups that project well and offer some leverage points on the field.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Feb. 1

High-End Tier

Joel Embiid ($11,200) has the top projection on the slate in a decent matchup with the Magic. He’s also the most expensive player on the slate, though, and he’s projected for 16% ownership. He currently shows up in optimal lineup in the Stokastic simulations 10% of the time, giving him a negative leverage score of around 6 points. Those optimal lineup odds are likely to go up if some value opens up, but the ownership could go up as well.

James Harden ($9,600) is a nice pivot from Embiid. Harden has a positive leverage score of more than 4 points, as he is projected for just 6% ownership but shows up in the optimal simulated lineup over 10% of the time. On top of that, Harden is a natural leverage play off his more popular teammate.

Stephen Curry ($10,300) is another great pivot at the high end. Curry has the second-highest projection on the slate but is projected for under 6% ownership. He shows up optimal in the sims more than 10% of the time. The Warriors play the Timberwolves, who play at the seventh-fastest pace in the league, and their implied team total of 120.75 is the fourth highest of the night.

Alperen Sengun ($8,800) projects very well point-per-dollar with Kevin Porter Jr. out. Sengun averages nearly 4 more fantasy points per game with Porter out, and the Rockets should be playing in a relatively competitive game at home with a Thunder team that plays at the third-highest pace in the league. Sengun is projected for 20% ownership with a 17% chance of being in the optimal lineup.

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Precious Achiuwa ($5,700) is among the top point-per-dollar plays on the slate. He is expected to continue starting for the Raptors with O.G. Anunoby sidelined. He is currently projected for just under 20% ownership with a 17% chance of being optimal.

Jeremy Sochan ($5,200) has the highest leverage score on the entire slate. He sees virtually no boost in fantasy scoring with Devin Vassell out, but the Spurs have a great matchup with the Kings. The Kings are top 10 in the league in pace of play and bottom 10 in defensive rating. Sochan is projected for just 5% ownership and shows up in the optimal lineup 10% of the time.

Jordan Poole ($6,500) is another solid low-owned play for the Warriors. Poole is projected for just 3% ownership, but shows up in the optimal lineup 7% of the time. The Warriors have all of their stars healthy, but Poole has the second-highest usage and scores the second-most fantasy points per minute on the team.

Tre Jones ($5,600) sees a slight uptick in usage and fantasy points per minute with Vassell out and benefits from the high-paced matchup with the Kings. He is projected for 23% ownership and shows up in the optimal lineup 18% of the time.

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Value Tier

Jaylen Nowell ($3,300) is currently the top point-per-dollar option on the slate. He averages just over a fantasy point per minute, putting him at a projection of 21 fantasy points at near the minimum salary. Nowell’s top value score is a testament to how little great value there is on the slate. If value opens up, he could be de-prioritized quickly. As things stand, he is projected for 28% ownership with a 27% chance of being optimal.

Isaiah Joe ($3,700) is expected to play around 25 minutes off the bench for the Thunder, and he averages just under 0.8 fantasy points per minute. Joe is projected for 20% ownership with a 15% chance of being optimal.

Daishen Nix ($3,500) started and played nearly 27 minutes in the most recent game for the Rockets. With both Porter and Jalen Green out again tonight, Nix is likely to start again. He is projected to play 24 minutes and makes for a solid value play with upside for more minutes. He is projected for 9% ownership with an 8% chance of being optimal.

These are just some of the top plays of the slate in terms of projection, value and leverage. Things can change in a hurry on an NBA slate, though, so remember to track the news throughout the day and take advantage of potential late-swap opportunities.

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Neil Orfield
Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.

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