Congratulations, my friends, we made it. The mind-meltingly bad year of 2020 is behind us and we can look forward to better and brighter things in all walks of life, including NBA DFS, in the new year! 2021 is getting out to a fast start with a big 10-game slate and there are a ton of early points on which the entire slate may swing. Yesterday we saw massively important news break just before lock, as Pascal Siakam, one of our focus players on the slate, was declared inactive for the Raptors game against the Knicks. With a half-hour on the clock to make late swaps, NBA DFS picks changed on the fly and players who were on the ball made some sharp GPP-winning pivots. As always, it is imperative that you follow along with our NewsGod’s Live Blog for the latest news and lineup information. Our full two-hour slate of shows leading into lock is on the schedule for 4:45 this afternoon, going through all the news and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft.
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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders DraftKings & FanDuel | 1/01
Ricky Rubio – Minnesota Timberwolves – DraftKings: $5,200 PG / FanDuel – $5,300 PG
Ricky Rubio – the enigmatic Spanish point guard who never quite lived up to his overall hype from the 2009 NBA Draft – is in play for NBA DFS purposes on both sites tonight. Rubio entered the starting lineup for the banged up Timberwolves in their last game and should get reasonable run again tonight. The point guard’s averages across his first four Timberwolves games are uninspiring at best, 9.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1 steal and 1.3 turnovers in just 23.9 minutes per game, equating to a 0.86 fantast points per minute average on FanDuel and 0.87 on DraftKings. However, Rubio has been a produced at a much higher rate for NBA DFS players in the recent past. Just last season, Rubio was a 1.10 fantasy point per minute player, if he can approach that production on tonight’s slate the attention he’s getting will likely be warranted. On DraftKings, Rubio is popular and comes in with a -6.8 leverage score, while appearing in the optimal lineup in 16.3% of simulations, good for 11th overall on the slate. There are four point guard eligible players who appear in the optimal lineup with greater frequency and from up and down the salary spectrum. As a pay-up option, Luka Doncic is coming in with better marks, including a 19.9% optimal rate and a 2.2 leverage score, though he costs nearly twice as much as Rubio. On the other end, Raul Neto from the Wizards should see increased opportunity again with Russell Westbrook out (see below), but the point guard is carrying a massive -23.3 leverage score on the DraftKings NBA slate.
When we get to this point with stratified pricing for similar plays, I tend to utilize the leverage tool and projected ownership to decide which of the chalkier value plays is looking strong. With a significantly heavier amount of ownership going to Neto for a very similar optimal lineup projection and boom score, I can see paying up to Rubio in the mid-tier and shaving 20% off the ownership metric while finding salary value elsewhere.
On FanDuel, Rubio is a different story. He ranks second among point guards, appearing in the optimal lineup 18.9% of the time while carrying a -3.2 leverage score. His boom probability of 37.4% ranks him first at the position, while his bust probability is a miniscule 18.3% at the price. Rubio provides what should be a relatively safe salary floor with a strong probability of upside. This is a play I would be comfortable getting over the field’s projected 22.1% on the FanDuel slate, Rubio looks like good chalk for FanDuel NBA tournaments.
Luka Doncic – Dallas Mavericks DraftKings – $10,300 PG / FanDuel – $11,300 PG
Did the out of shape narrative rapidly transition from James Harden to Luka Doncic or is that just what I’m seeing? If the NBA DFS community is looking for reasons to get off one of the league’s best overall point producers, I consider that to be to our advantage. The boom/bust tool appears to be bearing that line of thinking out as well. The superstar Dallas Mavericks point guard is the third most expensive player on the DraftKings slate but still ranks with the second highest overall boom percentage at 35.3. So far this season, Donicic is producing at “only” a 1.38 fantasy point per minute rate in DraftKings NBA contests, admittedly a step down from his 1.66 rate last season. This is merely a product of a ludicrously small sample size. Doncic is absolutely fine and lands in the optimal DraftKings lineup 19.9% of the time, third overall on the slate. With a 2.2 leverage score, not enough ownership is headed in Doncic’s direction, I’m happy to take advantage and leverage up on the field in a big way.
On the blue site, Doncic looks strong as well. The second highest priced player on the slate, Doncic is projecting to appear in the optimal lineup 10th most overall, at 17.3%. His extremely high salary has his boom score reduced and his bust score increased, which is a known risk when we pay up to this level for a star player. The leverage score is what excites me about the Doncic play for FanDuel NBA, he is currently rated at a 4.5, fourth overall and by far the highest among players appearing in the optimal lineup more than 10% of the time. He is also the only option among the top seven FanDuel point guards with a positive leverage score when sorted by appearance frequency in the optimal lineup.
Dillon Brooks – Memphis Grizzlies – DraftKings – $6,300 SG/SF / FanDuel $6.600 SG
Dillon Brooks is an underrated guard from the Memphis Grizzlies who benefits from a massive uptick in usage when teammates Ja Morant and De’Anthony Melton are off the floor, which they will be tonight. The Grizzlies will also be without backup guard Grayson Allen, adding potential minutes and upside to the Brooks play. In the Grizzlies most recent game, Brooks lead the team at 28.6% usage across his 28 minutes of action. He disappointed somewhat, scoring just 16 points on 6-18 shooting, 2-9 from three. Brooks did contribute five rebounds, two assists and a steal to help push his score, but he is primarily a player who relies on real life scoring to drive his fantasy point production. If we’re seeing Brooks’ shot fall more tonight than it did two days ago, he could be a prime play for both DraftKings and FanDuel NBA contests.
On FanDuel, Brooks ranks 17th overall sorting by boom percentage, at 31%, while appearing in the optimal lineup 16.4% of the time with a 1.9 leverage score. That is currently tracking for a situation where Brooks will be under-owned, I’m planning to push his exposure unless things change. On DraftKings, the play looks even better. Brooks ranks eighth overall on the site by boom score and is second overall in appearances in the optimal lineup at 21%, while still maintaining a slightly positive leverage score. It should be easy to push Brooks beyond his 20.7% public ownership to grab some leverage on the field in the event of an explosive night from the guard for DraftKings NBA contests.
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Washington Wizards
The Wizards are following a program of careful rest for superstar Russell Westbrook. Early in the season, they are avoiding playing Westbrook in back-to-back situations, resulting in a rest day for the point guard and a major opportunity for some of his teammates. The most obvious name on the board is Bradley Beal. The 1A to Westbrook’s 1 in the Wizards offense, and a star player in his own right, Beal should be the focal point of the Wizards offense and see plenty of opportunity to put up a huge score with his teammate absent. Beal produced 1.29 FanDuel and 1.33 DraftKings points per minute last season with a similar lineup to what the Wizards will run out tonight, these seem like reasonable marks to expect today. Beal ranks fifth overall on the DraftKings board by optimal lineup appearances in simulations, at 18.3%. He has a slightly negative leverage score, but the ownership is under 20% and Beal still appears to be the most reliable upside play with shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Beal ranks fifth by appearances in the optimal lineup, but is slightly more popular down his leverage score. Still, with a significant frequency in the optimal, Beal appears to be another playable piece of chalk tonight.
The real discussion is what happens with the rest of the Wizards guards tonight. Backup point guard Raul Neto costs just $3,400 on DraftKings at the point guard or shooting guard spot, making him an extreme value given his minutes and usage projection. With a 30.4% boom score and appearing in the optimal lineup 17.4% of the time, Neto would look like a good play on the surface, but his -23.3 leverage score, based on his extreme public ownership, could suggest that it makes sense to look for quality value elsewhere on the slate. Weaponizing Neto’s price to construct a full slate of entries while getting different at other spots is certainly a reasonable approach for mass multi-entry play, but for limited sets of lineups in tournaments I would look to get different with a pivot in this spot. Neto is both far less popular and far less likely to return quality in FanDuel NBA contests, coming in with just a 14% boom rating, appearing in the optimal in only 5.4% of simulations, but is still over-owned with a -3.9 leverage score. A firm no thank you. On the blue site, Ish Smith could be an interesting value point guard pivot in the same offense. Smith costs just $3,800, pushing his boom score to a higher 17.8%. While he appears in the optimal lineup slightly less than Neto at just 3.5% of the time, his leverage score is on the positive side and he is not popular. If Smith puts up a ceiling score for his salary it will likely come at the direct expense of Neto’s production, making this an interesting play if Neto gets more popular through the afternoon. The same notion does not translate to DraftKings NBA, however, where the two player’s prices are essentially reversed.
The other options in the Wizards offense are forwards Troy Brown Jr. and Davis Bertans, as well as center Thomas Bryant. The big man is the only player appearing in the optimal lineup more than 10% of the time, at just 10.2%. He has a slightly negative leverage score, but would be among centers that I work through DraftKings NBA lineups at his $6,300 price and 21% boom rating. Bryant’s boom score goes up on FanDuel but his popularity does as well, while his appearances in the optimal lineup barely increase. This pushes Bryant too far into negative leverage territory for me at -8.4. Bertans and Brown are both out of play for me on both sites as anything other than “dart throw” style options who may mix into a handful of lineups as ballast. Neither looks appealing in any aspect of the boom/bust tool as things currently stand.
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