Friday’s night’s big 10-game slate was oddly low-scoring and interesting in a number of ways. Without any truly explosive ceiling scores from unexpected sources, results trended far closer to median projections and popular industry NBA DFS picks than usual, and optimal lineup plays were critical. We had a few underperformers that dragged down the back-end of lineups and a clunker of a performance from D’Angelo Russell to contend with in too many lineups, ultimately resulting in a very solid but not great night for yours truly. The Awesemo subscriber base had a killer night, the NBA Slack channel was filled with winning screenshots from both DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contests, so congrats to the big winners out there. Now get back to the grind!
As always, this article comes out earlier in the afternoon, so it is imperative that you follow along with our NewsGod’s Live Blog for the latest news and lineup information for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft.
[2021-New-Year-Promo]
[SportsbookAffiliates]
NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders DraftKings & FanDuel | 1/02
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Oklahoma City Thunder – DraftKings $7,900 PG / FanDuel – $8,200 SG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was brought to the Thunder before last season after spending his rookie year with the Los Angeles Clippers. He spend most of last year as a sixth man and the understudy to superstar point guard Chris Paul, but following a mass exodus of talent during the offseason, SGA is the last man standing and primary cog in the Thunder offense. Alexander is getting the lion’s share of minutes and usage as the starting point guard for the Thunder, seeing a 27.7% usage rate so far this season. Gilgeious-Alexander averages 1.13 DraftKings points per minute, 1.07 on FanDuel, and is projecting for a strong performance at the price. He ranks second overall on DraftKings by appearances in the optimal lineup in our simulations, with a 27.6% rate and carries a 25.2% boom score, also second overall. His 5.2 leverage score is among the highest on the DraftKings NBA slate. While it compares favorably with the leverage score Elfrid Payton carries at the same position, it is important to consider the other factors in making your lineup decisions. Payton has a 5 leverage score, but appears in the optimal lineup just 6.1% of the time and has a 3.9% boom score compared to a 69.2% bust rate. The value on Gilgeous-Alexander is even stronger on FanDuel. The point guard ranks third overall by appearances in the optimal lineup at 34.6% and has a huge 8.6 leverage score. His 29.4% boom rating ranks second at the shooting guard spot behind Collin Sexton, who is less expensive but will be owned significantly more. SGA is the play on both sites.
Aaron Gordon – Orlando Magic – DraftKings – $5,600 PF / FanDuel – $6,400 PF
Aaron Gordon is a wildly different play across the two main NBA DFS sites. Because of still somewhat limited minutes, the Orlando Magic power forward is priced down to a point that makes him incredibly appealing today on DraftKings, but FanDuel’s pricing is yet to drop significantly. Gordon has produced at around the same clip as he did in previous seasons, averaging 0.99 DraftKings points per minute so far this year, the same mark he hit last season. At a 30 minute projection if we get just a bit of an upside performance, he easily creates value at this price. Gordon is averaging just 23.7 minutes per game, while putting up 11.4 points, 6 rebouds, 1.2 assists and 1.6 stocks. Gordon is a known commodity for DraftKings NBA contests, when his price drops to this point and we see him appearing in 29.8% of simulated optimal lineups – first overall on the site – with a 7.9 leverage score, we can absolutely roster him even with reduced overall opportunity. On FanDuel, however, the price is far too high for the limited minutes. Gordon ranks 24th overall by appearances in the optimal lineup on the blue site, more importantly he ranks just seventh at the power forward position by that metric. His leverage score is 4.4, which is playable, but we are not getting the production and upside that we need at the price unless Gordon unexpectedly gets extended run. I want to get to Aaron Gordon on DraftKings, but will largely cast him aside on FanDuel.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are drawing some attention as value plays on both sites. The team is loaded with low to midrange players who can put up solid scores when underpriced or under-owned, but with an average leverage score that is negative on both sites, are they the right button to press for NBA DFS picks value tonight?
The standout player on this Cavs squad is center Andre Drummond. He is the most capable of putting up a ceiling score on any night and on FanDuel, where we only roster one center, he can break the occasional slate. Drummond comes in with the team’s highest boom percentage on DraftKings at 27.6% while appearing in the optimal lineup 24.7% of the time and pulling only a slightly negative leverage score of -0.5. We can push past the field or play level to the field at that mark, I would want some Drummond mixed into lineups unless that leverage score swings further into the negative. On FanDuel, Drummond looks easier to skip. The center has a 30.3% boom score but appears as the optimal lineup center just 17% of the time. With a -3.3 leverage score, the public is going to be on Drummond more than I’d like to be. While I will probably have him in some GPP lineups for FanDuel NBA contests, I will likely be well under the field at his $10,000 price, there are simply better centers.
With forward Kevin Love still out of the lineup, Larry Nance Jr. edges up in minutes and usage, which pushes him up in our various metrics as well. Nance is still not overly pricey in FanDuel NBA contests, where he appears in the optimal lineup 34% of the time at just a -0.7 leverage score. He should be inexpensive enough to roster at the power forward spot when compared to the other options on the slate. Nance averages 0.98 FanDuel points per minute this season, if we’re seeing around 35 minutes as expected he should easily provide value and upside. On DraftKings, Nance averages 0.93 fantasy points per minute, putting him in the optimal lineup 22.5% of the time at his salary. With essentially even leverage and a 19.4% boom score compared to a 40.2% bust, Nance is a bit more of a tossup, but ultimately someone who is in the mix at the forward spot.
The guard rotation for the Cavaliers features three players who could be in the mix for NBA DFS purposes tonight. Collin Sexton is the lead man in the public’s eye and in terms of appearances in the optimal lineup at 22.9% on DraftKings where he averages 0.97 fantasy points per minute. Sexton is drawing around level ownership in DraftKings NBA contests, making him a play that you can ride along with the field. On FanDuel he is a shooting guard only, he appears in the optimal lineup 35.1% of the time, tops at the position, but has a -2.6 leverage score and could be considered over-owned. Teammates Dante Exum and Darius Garland (as well as Damyean Dotson) do not provide much relief on FanDuel. Exum is only $3,600 on the blue site, but is pulling a -4 leverage score and appears in the optimal lineup just 10.1% of the time against only a 16.2% boom score and a 29.9% bust. Garland looks worse at just a 2.8% probability of putting up a boom score and appearing in only five percent of optimal lineups. On DraftKings, the duo is more in play, but also looks extremely over-owned. The public is getting to far too much of both players, with a -9.1 leverage score for each. Garland apperas in the optimal DraftKings NBA lineup 15.8% of the time in simulations, Exum 14%, but the ownership is over the top for players who rate just a 12.7% and 11.3% probability of boom scores tonight. My value guard NBA DFS picks will come from different teams for both DraftKings NBA contests and FanDuel NBA contests tonight.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, NBA DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS picks cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.
