NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Grant Williams Blowup Incoming? (March 6)

There are only six games on this Monday night slate, and currently the value is not very strong. However, things can change in a hurry, so be sure to pay attention to the news and check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to listen in on smart analysis of how breaking news affects the slate. And as always, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are great resources to help you construct DFS lineups that project well and offer some leverage points on the field.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | March 6

High-End Tier

Damian Lillard ($11,600) is the highest-projected player on the slate tonight, with Anfernee Simons out once again and the Trail Blazers facing a Pistons team that has the third-worst defensive rating in the league. Lillard is projected for 22% ownership, a 22% chance of booming and 18% chance of being optimal, according to the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool.

Domantas Sabonis ($10,000) is not a great value but has a nice leverage score against the Pelicans. Sabonis is projected for just 9% ownership, a 15% chance of booming and 12% chance of being optimal.

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Tyrese Maxey ($5,500) has moved back into the starting lineup for the 76ers, and his price doesn’t fully reflect his minutes bump or nice matchup, a Pacers team ranked 10th in the league in pace of play and 23rd in defensive rating. Maxey is projected for 33% ownership, a 29% chance of booming and 29% chance of being optimal.

Marvin Bagley ($5,500) is likely to get another start for the depleted Pistons and will look even better if James Wiseman, who is currently listed as questionable, is ruled out. With Wiseman still in, Bagley is projected for 44% ownership, a 26% chance of booming and 27% chance of being optimal.

Value Tier

Grant Williams ($3,400) currently has the best value score on the entire slate. Though he is not a great fantasy producer, Williams is expected to see big minutes against the Cavaliers, with Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Robert Williams out. Williams is projected for 39% ownership, a 33% chance of booming and 34% chance of being optimal.

Mike Muscala ($3,300) could get the start at center for the Celtics. Muscala is projected for 17% ownership, a 22% chance of booming and 16% chance of being optimal.

Cam Reddish ($4,300) should play big minutes for the depleted Blazers and has a great value score. Teammates Matisse Thybulle, Drew Eubanks and Trendon Watford have value scores only slightly worse than Reddish but come in at less than half of his ownership.

Neil Orfield
Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.

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