NBA Fantasy Projections & Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel 1/13

Thursday night presents a five-game slate, and with 10 teams in action NBA fantasy lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel will be flush with high-level talent and value plays. The Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page will provide breaking news when starters are announced as well as a full injury report on players who might be missing in action. Below are some NBA daily fantasy options that stand out for tonight’s slate using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool and NBA DFS projections.

Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks

Boom: James Harden: $10,700 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel

45.6% DraftKings Boom/47.5% FanDuel Boom

The Nets will be without a group of players tonight, most importantly Kevin Durant (rest) and Kyrie Irving (health protocols). Harden has averaged 69 DraftKings points per game in his four games without Durant and Irving active. In the 938 minutes Harden has played with Durant and Irving off the floor since he joined the Nets, his usage and assist rates have jumped 7.6 and 11.6 percentage points, respectively. Harden contributes an elite 1.7 DraftKings points per minute in this situation, and tonight he gets to face the Thunder, who rank 19th in defensive efficiency.

Harden’s ceiling is well over 70 DraftKings points tonight, and he is criminally underpriced on both DraftKings and FanDuel. For both sites, Harden has a top-three boom score on the slate and is rating as the best value north of $8,000.

Boom: Dennis Smith Jr.: $4,000 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel

86.3% DraftKings Boom/84% FanDuel Boom

Tonight the Trail Blazers will be without Damian Lillard (abdomen), C.J. McCollum (chest), Anfernee Simons (personal) and Norman Powell (health protocols). Lillard, McCollum and Simons have collectively missed two games this season and on those occasions, Smith started at point for the Blazers and produced 31.5 DraftKings points in 40 minutes per game. Now with a heavy-usage player like Powell also unavailable, Smith’s role should grow even further. In the 130 minutes he has played with those four players off the court this season, Smith has posted a 24.2% usage rate, which is a 5.4-percentage-point increase from his season average.

Additionally, his assist rate rises 7.2 percentage points to 37.7%. These large rates translate into one DraftKings points per minute for Smith and barring a massive blowout, he should handle right around 40 minutes tonight against the Nuggets. This is an average spot, with Denver ranking 15th in defensive efficiency, but Smith’s expected workload out trumps any concerns we should have about this matchup. He is a legitimate threat to reach 10x value and is far and away the best value on the board tonight. By a huge margin, Smith possesses the highest boom score on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool.

Latest NBA DFS Content

Boom: Ben McLemore: $4,200 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel

33.9% DraftKings Boom/27.4% FanDuel Boom

McLemore is another elite value from the depleted Blazers. With Simons active, but Lillard, McCollum and Powell unavailable for the last two contests, McLemore has started and contributed 26.6 DraftKings points in 27.7 minutes per game. With Simons now joining Portland’s lengthy inactive list, Awesemo is projecting McLemore for 32 minutes tonight against the Nuggets. The veteran is supplying 0.81 DraftKings points per minute and 28 DraftKings points per game for the six times he has logged a minimum of 25 minutes this season, including three efforts over 30 DraftKings points.

In Awesemo’s projections, McLemore is rating as a top-10 value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Boom: Ja Morant: $9,200 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel

21% DraftKings Boom/13.9% FanDuel Boom

With Dillon Brooks (ankle) missing, Morant exposed the Warriors and their league-best defense for 50.75 DraftKings points Tuesday night. The point guard is now averaging 47 DraftKings points per game with Brooks out of the lineup this season, exceeding 50 DraftKings points in 10 of 21 starts. Overall, in the 808 minutes Morant has played with Brooks off the floor this season, he has led the Grizzlies with a 34.8% usage rate, a 34.4% assist percentage and 1.42 DraftKings points per minute, which are all slight upgrades from his season averages. Brooks will remain sidelined Thursday when the Grizzlies host the Wolves. Both these teams rank inside the top-10 in pace and not only does this contest present the highest total on the slate (231 points), but the Grizzlies carry the largest implied team total on the board (117.5 points).

This is the highest implied team total Memphis has seen this season and in the seven tilts Morant has played behind an implied team total of at least 115 points this year, he has responded with 49 DraftKings points per game. At a very reasonable $9,200 on DraftKings, Morant is one of the better high-end values available for Thursday’s five-game slate.

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