NBA DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Lineup Building Strategy 5/20

It was quite a Wednesday in the Association, as the Warriors – Lakers matchup certainly lived up to the hype. It is doubtful the play-in tournament will go away anytime soon after that outing, but more basketball as opposed to less basketball is just fine by me. Let’s now turn our attention to Thursday and Friday where single-game contests are the only game in town. So let’s get those skills sharpened immediately, as there is still a ton of money to be won by identifying the right DFS NBA strategy and picks for DraftKings and FanDuel.

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NBA DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | May 20

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Ways To Get Different On Single-Game Slates

With only the Pacers – Wizards game on the agenda to break down, it doesn’t take a neurosurgeon to know who the highest-projected players are going to be. Let’s kill the suspense on that one immediately: Russell Westbrook, Domantas Sabonis and Bradley Beal, in that order, are the top three players to pay up for from a raw-point perspective. But in single-game contests with tons of entries on DraftKings and FanDuel, there is more than just expected fantasy points, ownership and salaries to consider.

That is, gamers have to do their best to avoid building the exact same lineups as everyone else. Have a lineup with Westbrook at Captain on DraftKings that uses up almost all of the salary? Yeah, it’s probably duplicated. Have a lineup that starts Westbrook/Sabonis in the MVP/Star slots on FanDuel? Yeah, it’s probably duplicated too. So if you are fine with some minor wins on investment, there is no problem going to those chalkier builds and hoping to get paid off.

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But in the long run, you only need your super contrarianism to work out once with these massive Showdown prize pools in order to enjoy the splendors of a solo or barely split first-place finish. And while there are only so many lineup combinations that are logical, sometimes getting illogical in single-game contests can be the more +EV decision. So as you start building for these massive tournaments across the industry tonight, here are the best ways to get different:

Leave salary on the table — This is a tried-and-true method to automatically get different in 100,000-entry fields. While basketball is far more projectable than the likes of NFL or MLB where the variance can allow you to leave multiple thousands of dollars on the table with comfort, there is still a path in NBA DFS to not splitting hundreds of ways by not using up all of your salary.
Roster Cheaper/Lesser-Owned Captains — When someone projects like Westbrook has for the past two months, there is no question there’s viability to jamming him in the Captain spot and figuring out the rest. But assuming his ownership is high in that position tomorrow, paying down for a Rui Hachimura or Doug McDermott can give you access to builds that include all the studs tonight instead of just two.
Flex All the Studs Instead of Captaining Them — This speaks a bit to the last example, but takes into account that one stud doesn’t massively outperform the others in this game. Take a look at the example below, which is by no means an advocation for Alex Len in the Captain spot. But rather, if all three spend-ups go for 50 to 55 fantasy points, this could be a path to get split fewer ways than those relying on only one to really break the slate:

NBA DFS picks strategy advice draftkings fanduel daily fantasy basketball playoffs play-in showdown lineups thursday may 20

Build for Extreme Game Scripts — We spoke to this a bit on yesterday’s Slate Starter article, but build a few lineups with massive blowouts or possible injuries in mind. Who benefits the most if the Pacers are up 30-plus with six minutes again like they were on Monday? How about who is on the court should Sabonis get dinged up and miss the second half? Those sort of questions can lead you onto players and builds that no one else is even considering.
Play With Lineup Construction — On DraftKings specifically, there are only five different types of lineups that can be built for any given slate: 3-3, 4-2, 2-4, 5-1, and 1-5. The 2-4 (two players from one team with one being Captain, coupled with four from the other team all in the flex) and 1-5 are extremely rare to win with in NBA DFS, but would certainly give you an extremely-contrarian lineup build. My preferred route of getting different tends to be 4-2 and 5-1, as blowout narratives for projected close games tend to go under-owned.

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There are certainly other ways to get different that aren’t addressed above, but those are the major talking points off the top of my head. If you want more ideas as we begin to delve further and further into single-game contests the next few weeks, do not miss Live Before Lock on the Awesemo YouTube channel these next two days.

Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Showdown Lineups

There is no word as to Malcolm Brogdon‘s availability again. But he looked excellent in his 21 minutes on Tuesday, so he should be back in action for another win-or-go-home game.
The blowout win for the Pacers versus the Hornets hid a lot of what the Pacers rotation might look like in a close game. Apart from just trying to peg Brogdon’s minutes, it will hard to know what kind of involvement players like Edmond Sumner and Kelan Martin will have tonight, adding a curious unknown into this slate. Be sure to check Awesemo’s elite ownership projections early and often tomorrow, as these are the true make-or-break plays of this slate and could be easily interchangeable in your lineups based on which one is popular and which one isn’t.
Recency bias is a thing, which makes me want to jam a bunch of Davis Bertans into my lineups on the heels of his atrocious 33-minute, 5.25-DraftKings-point performance. It doesn’t feel good whatsoever, but these are the types of super uncomfortable stands you may have to take on single-game slates going forward.
Just play Sabonis.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.