The first set of NBA Playoff games was a whirlwind of blowouts and a handful of competitive games. It wasn’t the most intriguing weekend of hoops, but by golly has it shifted some odds. BetMGM has released some of their betting data from Game 1 of the NBA Playoffs and what’s on tap for all the Game 2’s so let’s go over BetMGM’s NBA Playoffs betting insight and see what conclusions we can draw.
BetMGM NBA Playoffs Betting Insight: NBA Odds Movement
Source: John Ewing of BetMGM
One that’s abundantly clear is bettors are drawing a lot of conclusions for Game 2’s based on what happened in each Game 1. For example, the Cavaliers were -190 to win Game 1, but since they held serve at home, their side is getting hammered for Game 2 in Cleveland and pushing their moneyline to -400. It’s also notable for that series that the Magic are seeing slightly more bets, but significantly more money is coming in on Cleveland.
It’s a similar but also opposite story from the most surprising Game 1 result, the Clippers blowing out Dallas. The Mavericks are +125 dogs after being road favorites in Game 1, but that is resulting in 73% of bets and 86% of money coming in on Dallas. Bucks-Pacers and Timberwolves-Suns are largely the same; the winners of Game 1 have the odds moving their way, but bets and handle are going to the underdogs.
On the other hand, there are three series that have seen the odds move a ton towards the higher seed/winner of Game 1, and those teams are also getting the overwhelming majority of the action. Nuggets-Lakers, Knicks-76ers and Thunder-Pelicans were all competitive Game 1’s, but the favorite one all three matchups. So now Denver is -700 for Game 2, New York is -275 and Oklahoma City is a staggering -1200. Despite that, those three teams are getting 89%, 91% and 88% of the money, respectively. The public is not seeing value in the dogs for Game 2 despite them all hanging with the higher seeds.
Then there is Celtics-Heat — BetMGM is giving Miami the Rodney Dangerfield treatment. The Celtics Game 2 moneyline is off the board after they easily handled the Heat in Game 1, and Miami is +4000 for that game. As such, the Heat are getting most of the bets and the money coming their way since bettors don’t have much of a choice otherwise.
All in all, it was quite the reactionary odds movement across the board.
