Three crucial playoff games await NBA DFS gamers tonight. The underdogs, all of whom are on the road, will be eliminated with a loss tonight. To empower you to make informed choices, Stokastic’s experts will share their insights on each game and spotlight players who offer optimal NBA DFS value for your roster.
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NBA DFS Value and Advice | April 25
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics (-13):
The Atlanta Hawks will face the Boston Celtics in Boston. Unsurprisingly, the Celtics are heavily favored to win — the sportsbooks have them as a 13-point favorite. The Atlanta Hawks are down three games to one and won’t have Dejounte Murray, which increases the blowout risk.
However, Murray’s absence opens up opportunities for Hawks players such as Trae Young, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Saddiq Bey, who all have a decent chance of being optimal plays on DraftKings. John Collins and De’Andre Hunter are also viable NBA DFS value options.
Onyeka Okongwu is a decent dart throw in GPPs, but his low ownership is a cause for concern. He has averaged around 21 minutes per game in this series but hasn’t been very productive, averaging just 0.73 DraftKings points per minute.
On the other hand, Boston has a great matchup, but their salaries and health make it difficult to fit them into lineups. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the top two options, and any of Derrick White, Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon or Al Horford are viable secondary plays. Robert Williams III is a low floor/high ceiling option with low ownership. He has averaged 23.3 minutes per game in this series but played 28.9 minutes in the most recent game.
Overall, the Hawks face a daunting task in trying to avoid a blowout loss to the Celtics, and DFS players should keep this in mind while constructing their lineups.
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Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets (-10):
The 10-point spread in favor of the Denver Nuggets implies some blowout risk, and with Kyle Anderson joining Jaden McDaniels on the sidelines for Minnesota, there is a higher chance of a lopsided game. Anderson’s absence solidifies Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s playing time and also boosts Taurean Prince’s value. Alexander-Walker is projected to be one of the best NBA DFS value plays on the slate, while Prince is a large field GPP pivot.
Karl-Anthony Towns, priced at $7,800, continues to be a wildcard due to his historically low salary. However, he has been struggling in this series, averaging just 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in 35.5 minutes per game. Although he has a 24.9 percent usage rate and a 16.7 percent rebound rate, he hasn’t been able to convert those opportunities into points.
On the other hand, Anthony Edwards is projected to be slightly under-owned on DraftKings, with a 23.4 percent chance of optimality. Edwards has been one of the only bright spots for Minnesota in the series, averaging 1.36 DraftKings points per minute in nearly 40 minutes per game.
Rudy Gobert is a secondary option at center as he is priced reasonably for someone who has averaged about 1 DraftKings point per minute in 34 minutes per game in the series.
For the Nuggets, Aaron Gordon is the most popular player on DraftKings at 25 percent ownership. However, the team is healthy, so everyone is appropriately priced. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are both solid GPP plays thanks to their massive ceilings.
Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are all secondary options at relatively inexpensive salaries. Jeff Green is a viable flier in GPPs as he has averaged 23.5 minutes per game in the series, although he has produced just 0.49 DraftKings points per minute.
Overall, the game is expected to have a blowout risk, and DFS players should keep that in mind while building their lineups. There are several viable options available for selection, but players like Alexander-Walker, Edwards and Gobert stand out as value plays.
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns (-12.5)
The Los Angeles Clippers will face the Phoenix Suns in a do-or-die Game 5, and unfortunately, they will once again be without Kawhi Leonard. Norman Powell will start in his place, and he has been productive in Leonard’s absence. Powell is priced at $7,400 on DraftKings and $6,900 on FanDuel, making him an appealing option on both sites with a high ceiling.
However, other Clippers players are not garnering much ownership on either site. Russell Westbrook offers a high ceiling, especially on DraftKings, but his salary has been adjusted for Leonard’s absence. If you need to save money, Ivica Zubac is a viable NBA DFS value option at center.
Notably, Robert Covington played in the second half of the last game, marking his first minutes of the series, and while he is a risky, low-probability dart throw in GPPs, he may have a bigger role for the Clippers tonight as nothing else they’ve tried has worked.
On the other hand, the Phoenix Suns have several appealing options at various price points. Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton are the most favorably priced players, while Devin Booker and Kevin Durant offer massive ceilings at lower ownership. Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie are both risky plays with low floors, but they each have paths to good games for their salaries.
Overall, it’s a tough matchup for the Clippers, but there are still opportunities for value and upside in this game.
