We have 11 MLB games tonight, and it’s shaping up to be a fun slate with a lot of offense. There aren’t many good strikeout pitchers on the slate but there are a lot of favorable hitting conditions. In my early look at the slate using the MLB Sims tool, the preferred approach was to target the best offenses while taking some risks on low-owned pitching. Let’s dive into Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, and analyze the best MLB DFS value picks tonight at DraftKings.
Looking for more MLB DFS advice? Check out our MLB articles and tools, including our industry-leading projections. We have custom-built tools to help you identify the top stacks, batters and pitchers — along with a one-of-a-kind lineup generator! You can even test how a slate could go with the new simulator tool. Sign up for our MLB DFS package for those tools and more today by clicking here.
MLB DFS Advice: Red Sox-Rangers Game Offers Intriguing Options
Game of the Day: Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
I could feature several games in this spot, but this one stands out the most because of its 10-run total. The number sits that high despite two good pitchers taking the mound against each other. The Red Sox are currently fifth in Stack Score and first in ownership in the Top Stacks tool. They have a five-run implied total despite a tough matchup against Jon Gray. The hitting conditions and bats are both conducive to scoring runs, and the Red Sox are also less expensive than usual.
Rafael Devers is the most expensive hitter in the lineup at just $4,900, which is about a 10 to 20 percent discount from his normal salary. Similarly, Masataka Yoshida is only $4,800 and batting second. Adam Duvall is the only other hitter who costs more than $4,000 on DraftKings, so the Red Sox offer an excellent combination of upside and salary savings. Gray has held righties to a .132 xISO this season, but lefties have had more success with a .173 xISO. Boston’s lineup is balanced overall but features four lefties in the top six spots in the order.
Texas has been one of the best offenses in baseball this season, posting a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The Rangers are more expensive than Boston, but they also have a five-run implied total as the visiting team in Fenway Park. They have a tough matchup against Brayan Bello, who has struck out 21.8 percent of hitters with a 3.84 xFIP and about a 57 percent groundball percentage. Fenway Park plays up power, however, and the Rangers have plenty of it. They are second in top stack percentage but rank in the middle of the pack in Stack Score because they are expensive.
While the offenses are the most likely parts of this game to succeed, we can’t completely ignore the pitchers in large-field tournaments. They are as talented as almost any other pitchers on the slate and aren’t popular. Gray is $8,900 on DraftKings and is only projected for about one percent ownership with an 8.5 percent chance of being a top-two scoring pitcher in the Top Pitchers tool. Similarly, Bello is only projected for about two percent ownership with an 8.6 percent chance of being a top two scoring pitcher at $8,500. Neither pitcher is safe, but none of the pitchers that are commanding the bulk of the ownership in their price ranges are particularly safe, either. It’s not recommended to go too crazy forcing them into lineups, but they are viable ways to differentiate in lineups that have popular hitters and a popular SP1.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Jarren Duran (BOS): $2,800 on DraftKings
Starling Marte (NYM): $3,700 on DraftKings
Brandon Belt (TOR): $3,000 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Jarren Duran: Duran is leading off tonight for the Red Sox against Jon Gray. Boston has a five-run implied total, and Gray has been weaker against lefties than righties this season. Left-handed hitters have a .173 xISO against the Rangers’ right-hander. Duran enters tonight’s game with a .381 wOBA and .207 ISO in 198 plate appearances against righties this season. His expected numbers are a bit worse with a .342 xwOBA and .149 xISO, but his inexpensive price tag still causes him to project as one of the best point-per-dollar plays tonight.
Starling Marte: Marte continues to be inexpensive and has a favorable matchup tonight against Tommy Henry in Arizona. Henry has allowed a .183 ISO and .167 xISO to right-handed hitters this season while Marte has a .354 xwOBA and .159 xISO in 241 plate appearances against lefties since the start of last season. Marte also offers stolen base upside as he has swiped 22 bases so far this season.
Brandon Belt: Belt faces Lance Lynn tonight in Chicago. Lynn is one of the best strikeout pitchers on the slate, but he has had drastic splits throughout most of his career. This season has been even more extreme than usual, as left-handed hitters have a .380 xwOBA and .259 xISO against him. Lynn’s actual numbers allowed to lefties are even worse, as they have produced a .442 wOBA and .309 ISO. Belt enters tonight’s game with a .371 wOBA and .204 ISO (.323 xwOBA and .198 xISO) against right-handed pitching this season. Guaranteed Rate Field has also been the seventh-best park for left-handed home runs over the last three seasons.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Pablo Lopez (MIN) $10,100 on DraftKings
Bobby Miller (LAD): $8,300 on DraftKings
Seth Lugo (SD): $7,900 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Pablo Lopez: Lopez is the highest projected pitcher tonight by a wide margin. He has struck out a slate-leading 29.8 percent of hitters this season with a 3.59 xFIP. He gets to face the Kansas City Royals, who enter tonight’s game with an 85 wRC+ and 24.9 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching on their active roster. Their 2.9 implied run total is about three-tenths of a run lower than it was this morning and about half a run lower than any other team on the slate.
Bobby Miller: Miller projects to be one of the most popular mid-range options tonight as he takes on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pivoting away from popular SP2s is a viable strategy tonight as it allows you to prioritize the best offenses and Lopez without being too chalky, but that doesn’t mean that Miller isn’t one of the best individual pitching options. He has struck out 21.7 percent of hitters with a 4.05 xFIP through his first seven Major League starts and projects for similar numbers going forward. Pittsburgh has about a 3.4 implied run total against him tonight, and their active roster has just a 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
Seth Lugo: Lugo is a former reliever who has seen action as a starter this season. He threw 94 pitches in his most recent start, and there is no reason to have workload concerns at this point just because he was a reliever in previous seasons. He has been solid as a starter, striking out 21.9 percent of hitters with just a five percent walk percentage. His xFIP is 3.71, and he gets to face the Angels without Mike Trout. He also gets to face them in one of the best pitchers’ parks in baseball, as Petco Park’s park factor of 95 is lower than every stadium except for T-Mobile Park in Seattle over the last three seasons. While pitching in Petco is never a bad thing, it stands out even more on a slate like tonight’s, where most of the games are being played in favorable parks for hitters or cities where it is 85-plus degrees and humid.
