There are 10 MLB games tonight, with a nice blend of pitching and quality offenses. Most outdoor games are being played in warm weather, so many of the good pitchers still carry some risk because of the favorable hitting conditions. Most offenses have similar chances of success tonight, so ownership is unlikely to be too concentrated on any one team.
Let’s dive into Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, and analyze the best MLB DFS value plays tonight.
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MLB DFS Advice: | July 17
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles
A case could be made for the Giants and Reds, as San Francisco has the highest implied run total and Logan Webb will be a relatively popular pitcher as well, but there is a ton of upside throughout the game in Baltimore, and it looks very appealing in tournaments.
The Dodgers will face Grayson Rodriguez in his return from a demotion to Triple-A. Rodriguez made 10 starts for the Orioles earlier this season, striking out 26.5% of hitters but also walking 10% of hitters and allowing 2.58 home runs per nine innings. He was exceptionally ineffective against left-handed hitters in those starts, allowing a .435 xwOBA and .304 xISO. Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy stand out as the best left-handed hitters on the Dodgers, but David Peralta and James Outman will offer cheap upside as well if they are in the lineup. The Dodgers have the fourth-highest top stack percentage in the Top Stacks Tool at 7%, and they are projected for about 7% aggregate ownership as well.
Baltimore elected to demote Rodriguez to Triple-A at the beginning of June in an effort to work on his command. Not only was he walking too many hitters in the Majors, but he was also missing spots in the strike zone, which was leading to hard contact and home runs. Excluding a start on July 9 where Rodriguez only pitched three innings by design, he went six innings in five of his six starts after his demotion. He struck out a total of 51 hitters in 34.1 innings in those six starts while walking 12 (with five of those walks coming in his first start after the demotion). Rodriguez has a dangerous matchup against the Dodgers, but he is an interesting GPP option because of his strikeout upside and underlying talent. He has a 10% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher in the Top Pitchers Tool, yet he is only projected for about 1% ownership. By comparison, MacKenzie Gore and Griffin Canning are similarly priced and have a 12.9% and 11.6% chance of being top-2 scoring pitchers, respectively, yet they are projected for 16% to 20% ownership.
The Orioles offense will take on rookie right-handed Emmet Sheehan, who has made four starts for the Dodgers after 12 appearances (10 starts) at Double-A this season. He struck out 41.7% of the hitters that he faced at Double-A, but that has not translated to the majors yet, as he has just a 19.5% strikeout percentage through his first four starts. He projects for a 23% to 24% strikeout percentage going forward but also for a 4.5 to 4.9 FIP. Sheehan is talented, but it is likely to take some time before he is a quality starter for the Dodgers. In the meantime, the Orioles have a lineup full of left-handed power in a park that is good for left-handed home runs. On top of the favorable park, it is about 90 degrees in Baltimore today, so the ball should carry. Sheehan has allowed a .234 xISO in a limited sample against left-handed hitters through his first four starts. The Orioles have about a 5% chance of being the top scoring stack tonight at about 6% aggregate ownership.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Shohei Ohtani (LAA): $6,600 on DraftKings
Max Muncy (LAD): $4,600 on DraftKings
Wilmer Flores (SFG): $3,200 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani is the best player in baseball, and he gets an excellent matchup tonight against Luis Severino. Severino has been terrible this season, allowing 2.32 home runs per nine innings while striking out just 17.8% of hitters and posting a 5.21 xFIP. Left-handed batters have a .414 xwOBA and .222 xISO against Severino and just a 13.1% strikeout percentage. Ohtani enters tonight’s game with a .436 xwOBA and .353 xISO against right-handed pitching.
Max Muncy: Muncy takes on Rodriguez tonight in Camden Yards, who struggled mightily with left-handed hitters in his first stint with the Orioles, and Muncy will be a tough test for him tonight. Muncy has a .386 xwOBA and .312 xISO in 226 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season. It is also interesting that Muncy has a .380 xwOBA and .307 xISO in the 35 plate appearances that have ended on a right-handed changeup. If Rodriguez is going to improve against lefties, he is going to need to improve his fastball command but also rely on his changeup. Even if he is able to make those changes, Muncy profiles as a difficult out.
Wilmer Flores: Flores is projected to be the highest-owned hitter on DraftKings in Stokastic’s ownership projections, and for good reason. He is just $3,200 and is likely to be hitting near the top of the order tonight against Brandon Williamson in Cincinnati. Cincinnati is the best hitter’s park on the slate, and the Giants have the highest implied run total. Williamson has allowed a .368 xwOBA and .247 xISO to right-handed hitters.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Logan Gilbert (SEA): $9,800 on DraftKings
Nick Pivetta (BOS): $7,300 on DraftKings
MacKenzie Gore (WAS): $7,900 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Logan Gilbert: Gilbert stands out as the best pitcher on the slate for a few different reasons. First, he is a good pitcher, having struck out 24.8% of hitters and posting a 3.69 xFIP. Second, he is facing the Twins, who have a 28% strikeout percentage on their active roster against right-handed pitching this season. Third, he is pitching in the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball on a slate where most of the other good pitchers are in hitter’s parks and/or warm weather. Gilbert is the best combination of talent, matchup and park on this slate.
Nick Pivetta: There is some uncertainty with Pivetta tonight, as it is not clear if he will start the game or work as a bulk reliever. The Red Sox have suggested that they would like to continue using him as a reliever, but he is currently listed as the projected starter. If he starts, he looks like an excellent value at $7,300. He has a 27.1% strikeout percentage in eight starts this season and threw 76 pitches in five innings in his last appearance. He also has a favorable matchup against the Athletics in Oakland. If he comes out of the bullpen, he is still viable, but he is riskier because his innings projection will be a bit lower.
MacKenzie Gore: Gore has a dangerous matchup against the Cubs, who have a 4.6 implied run total. Most good pitchers have dangerous matchups tonight, however, so that does not disqualify him. He is also less expensive than most of the good pitchers on tonight’s slate despite having the second-highest strikeout percentage at 28.1% and the fourth-best xFIP at 3.75. In the early run of the MLB Sims tool, Gore showed up in about 41% of lineups compared to his 18.8% ownership projection.
