MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Ride the Motor City Kitties (May 17)

We’re back with a massive 13-game MLB slate that locks early at 7:05p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.

One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, May 17

React App

MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher

Brewers-Astros: Freddy Peralta

Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,400

It’s not often that the highest-priced pitcher on a slate is also the most leveraged, but Brewers ace Freddy Peralta checks both those boxes tonight in a matchup with the Astros. While there are undoubtedly a number of good pitching options across 13 games, Peralta is right there with Tarik Skubal as the best overall arm on the slate. He’s clearly in a tough matchup, but Peralta has as high of upside as any pitcher in baseball, and the field is making a mistake by completely crossing him off.

Houston’s lineup is full of good hitters, and the majority of the lineup does not strike out. That said, Peralta is one of the best MLB DFS pitchers and has slate-breaking upside every time he toes the rubber, averaging 20.2 DraftKings points per game and a robust 31.9% strikeout rate. Although Peralta’s floor might be lower in a spot like this, his ceiling is still massive, and there’s always merit in getting to a pitcher as good as Peralta when that pitcher isn’t getting any love.

As of this writing, Peralta is the clear top leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 11.3% of the time, but only 2.8% of lineups are projected to roster him.

For a limited time only, you can use promo code MLBSIMSWEEK to get access to one week of our industry-leading MLB Sims Max, Sims Data or Data packages for 40% off by clicking here!

MLB DFS Contrarian Stack

Tigers-Diamondbacks: Tigers

Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 5.8%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 4.0%

Similar to most of the slates we’ve had this week, projected ownership on stacks is extremely spread out on DraftKings. No team is projected to be higher than 8.8% owned. That leaves us with a bunch of contrarian stacks, and the Tigers are the best of the bunch in a matchup with Ryne Nelson and the Diamondbacks. Though Nelson himself isn’t garnering much ownership, he’s one of the worst pitchers on the slate, and the Tigers are just getting lost in the shuffle on a night with a bunch of similar-looking options.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Detroit would’ve been popular in this spot on many of the smaller slates we’ve recently had. Tonight, however, the Tigers are a casualty of a massive slate with good options across the board. Picking on Nelson seems like a smart move, as the Arizona right-hander currently sports a 5.33 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Nelson’s 4.92 xERA doesn’t inspire much confidence, and his 47.3% hard-hit percentage suggests that those numbers might even go down. Though they look expensive on paper with a $5,500 Riley Greene and a $5,100 Mark Canha, the Tigers have plenty of cheap bats scattered across their lineup to make the stack doable.

The Tigers currently grade out as the clear top leverage stack on DraftKings. Projected to be the top stack 5.8% of the time this slate plays out, only 4% of the field is expected to stack them.

Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider

Orioles, White Sox (facing a chalky Nestor Cortes), Athletics (facing a chalky Cole Ragans), Twins

Stokastic runs over some of the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for daily fantasy baseball lineups like one...

Looking for a way to boost your MLB DFS success? Check out our MLB DFS Sims Tools! Our simulation tools have helped numerous pros and users win big in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS contests across several sports, and they can help you too! Don’t believe us? Read up on the Stokastic Hall of Fame and see for yourself.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.