MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Knacking on the Door (June 21)

As is typical on a Friday night, the baseball gods bless us with a 10-game MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.

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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, June 21

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MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher

Angels-Dodgers: Landon Knack

Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 9.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,600

Even with 10 games and 20 pitchers on tonight’s docket, our pitching options leave a lot to be desired. There are some good names up top, but most of them are in risky spots, making it a difficult slate to feel good about pitching. That being said, everybody is playing with the same player pool, and as of this writing, four pitchers are projected to get the majority of love on DraftKings. Dodgers right-hander Landon Knack is not one of those pitchers, and he’s the best contrarian starter on the slate.

Despite limited action, Knack has been extremely effective in the majors this season. He is sporting a 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across 20.2 through his first four starts, and Knack returns to the Dodgers rotation to fill the spot left by Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s trip to the injured list. Though the sample size is too small to draw any substantial conclusions, Knack is in a great spot matched up with an Angels lineup that has greatly struggled against right-handed pitching. Given the question marks clouding pretty much every pitcher toeing the rubber tonight, Knack isn’t getting nearly the love he deserves on DraftKings.

As of this writing, he’s projected to be a top-2 pitcher 9.0% of the time this slate plays out. With only 2.9% of lineups expected to roster him, Knack is the top tournament arm tonight.

If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE — or watch the video below.

MLB DFS Contrarian Stack

Braves-Yankees: Braves

Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 3.5%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 1.7%

Despite it being another Coors Field slate with pretty mediocre pitching in Colorado, ownership on stacks is expected to be very spread out. As of this writing, only the Red Sox and Blue Jays are projected for double-digit ownership as a stack, while the Nationals are right behind them in Coors. While all three of those offenses look really good in their own right, pretty much every other stack on the board is going to be low owned. Within that group lies the Braves, the best contrarian stack for tournaments.

Coming off a 2023 campaign in which the Braves set all sorts of offensive records, the 2024 version has struggled throughout much of the season so far. Losing MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. certainly doesn’t help matters, but Atlanta’s offense was scuffling even before the all-world outfielder got hurt. While much has been made of Atlanta’s struggles to start the season, its upside is still right there with any other offense in baseball, and it has started to show signs that a breakout is coming sooner rather than later. The Braves are facing Carlos Rodon, who is projected to be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, and it’s rare to get them with so much leverage.

Though Rodon has been much better for the Yankees than he was last year, his underlying numbers suggest that he’s been getting by with some smoke and mirrors. Rodon comes into tonight with a 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .301 wOBA through 15 starts. Rodon’s 4.14 xERA and .323 xwOBA more represent the pitcher he actually is, and when the Braves do get to Rodon in this spot, their upside is massive.

Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider

Brewers, Yankees, Royals, Guardians

Today's MLB DFS picks, top stacks and pitchers on DraftKings and FanDuel include MLB DFS predictions for key talent like Tanner Bibee...
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Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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