Tuesday keeps the week moving with a 12-game featured slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHPs Mitch Keller and Joe Musgrove, the Pirates offense and, of course, a Coors Field Extravaganza.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
There are several talented pitchers in action tonight; however, most have less-than-appealing matchups. This should lead to a fun tournament slate with the popularity being dispersed across eight or so pitchers.
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Mitch Keller vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,900 | FanDuel $11,300 | Yahoo $54
There is clearly no discount for RHP Mitch Keller, as he gets a cherry matchup against the visiting Oakland Athletics. The 27-year-old had a nice breakthrough last year across 159 innings, with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and 7.8 strikeouts per nine. This year he has been even better, mostly on the strength of 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Since the beginning of last season, the A’s current collection of hitters has a 78 wRC+, along with a 26.3% strikeout against right-handed pitchers, both of which are the second worst in the league. For cash games, Keller looks like the building block, though for many gamers, there will be a lot of temptation loading up on the Coors Field bats. These are the slates we live for!
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP James Paxton at Cleveland Guardians — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,600 | FanDuel $9,400 | Yahoo $34
LHP James Paxton has always been a strong pitcher; it is durability that has been the issue. Since making his debut all the way back in the 2013 season with the Seattle Mariners, The Big Maple has made only 141 career appearances due to a myriad of injuries, including most recently, Tommy John surgery.
Though he has made only four appearances this season, he has 100 or more pitches in two of them and looks to be good to go – well, as much as an oft-injured, 6-foot-4, 240-pound pitcher can be. The Guardians do not strike out much, but they do not score with great frequency and they have very little power against southpaws. Paxton is a steal at $34 on Yahoo, and even his $9,400 salary on FanDuel is palatable, considering that he projects to be on fewer than 10% of rosters and has a good chance at the quality start bonus.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Joe Musgrove vs. Seattle Mariners — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,800 | FanDuel $8,300 | Yahoo $37
The DFS sites are still granting RHP Joe Musgrove a discount, which seems to be heavily weighted towards one dreadful performance in his second start. Keep in mind that Musgrove had a late start to the season while convalescing after dropping a weight on his big left toe, causing a fracture.
In his last five starts, the 30-year-old veteran has been steady with a 2.89 ERA, 3.71 FIP and nearly a strikeout per inning. Musgrove is coming off back-to-back quality starts spanning 12.1 innings, with only one earned run. Seattle is an average offense against right-handed hurlers, but the Mariners have a 25.6% strikeout rate over the last season and change, which when combined with a steal of a salary has Musgrove as the priority option on the late slate and the premium SP2 for the main slate on DraftKings and Yahoo.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RHP James Kaprielian — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks tool has identified the Dodgers in Cincinnati against RHP Luke Weaver and the Coors Field Extravaganza as the best fantasy environments. That should be no surprise, but it also does not need extra analysis. Instead we can take a look at the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have the best fantasy value score in the model.
RHP James Kaprielian got off to a rough start this season, with a 12.94 ERA and nearly 2.4 baserunners PER INNING! It was so dismal that he was sent down to Triple-A to work on things. In two starts for the Las Vegas Aviators, he logged 8.1 innings, allowing one run and recording seven strikeouts. Things have slightly improved since his return, and in four May starts he did have a more palatable 4.57 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while navigating a gauntlet of the best offenses in the league, including Texas, Atlanta and Houston (twice).
On his best days, Kaprielian is an innings-eater with below-average strikeouts and above-average walks and power. This does not jibe well with his imbalance of ground balls (35.8%) versus fly balls (43.6%) and often leads to crooked numbers. Look to the Pirates as duos and trios, forming a discounted secondary stack. Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, Tucupita Marcano and Ke’Bryan Hayes would be the preferred order when considering fantasy projections, price, positional eligibility and popularity. Again, there is no need to go overboard, but this is a nice salary-saving situation. Oh, and as always … Carlos Santana is smooth.
Late Slate Target: Chicago Cubs at LHP Tyler Anderson — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
The Cubs will be rolling out a righty-heavy lineup against LHP Tyler Anderson, and they stand out as the co-top options with the Anaheim offense on the late slate. Anderson is a typical lefty who allows a lot of contact and does not get many strikeouts, but also keeps baserunners to a reasonable level, with 1.27 per inning for his career. When he is getting ground balls (39.8%), he is fine. When he is allowing more fly balls (40.9%) that end up in the gaps or out of the park, well, that is when DFS gamers are happy to be against him.
The Cubs are above average when it comes to power (.169 ISO) and scoring (114 wRC+) against southpaws. The clear core four to build around will be Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, Patrick Wisdom and switch-hitter Ian Happ. Look to catcher Yan Gomes on DraftKings ($3,100) and Yahoo ($12) as a nice way to fulfill the backstop requirement on all slates.
Gomes is also an interesting option in the sports wagering market. Looking at the new “True Odds” feature on OddsShopper, we can see that the +600 line for Gomes to his a home run is actually mispriced, with the MLB Bet Pro probability having this as a +568 line. That is like getting a 6% booster from the sportsbook without doing any extra work. This is a longshot, of course, but Gomes does have a strong history against lefties, and in his last 134 opposite-handed matchups, he has a .240 ISO. This power also makes his +145 for over 1.5 total bases an interesting wager as well.
Final Thoughts for Tuesday, June 6 | MLB DFS Picks
Keep an eye on the games in Atlanta and New York, where there are afternoon showers that could be a little slow to clear — though no postponements are expected.
Check out today’s Stokastic MLB Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows, at 4:45 p.m. ET, brought to you by bet365.