MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 4
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Aside from a messy start with six runs in four innings at Coors Field, RHP Nick Pivetta allowed no more than three earned runs in any other outing, including one or fewer runs in six of his 11 appearances. It looks like 2022 was more of an aberration than anything, as that was the lone campaign in the last five that saw the now 32-year-old with fewer than 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
The main knock against Pivetta is that he has a 35% to 40% ground ball rate, which means he sees more than his share of fly balls. Fortunately, he is able to get out of jams, making his own magic at the plate, plus this park and weather conditions should help suppress the probability of longballs tonight.
That limited the now 27-year-old to just one appearance in 2024 with five rehabilitation starts this season, climbing up the MiLB ladder.
Gipson-Long is really only playable on DraftKings or as a streamer in season-long leagues with daily transactions, as he recorded just 56 and 53 pitches in his two outings with the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens.
Expectations are that Gipson-Long will be good for around 60 pitches today and a likely soft-cap of 70 to 75. There is no reason for manager AJ Hinch to push him, especially with Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe on the injured list and veteran RHP Alex Cobb (hip) still a few weeks away from making his Detroit debut.
Even with the pitch limit, Gipson-Long could still push for 12 to 14 DraftKings points in 3 to 4 innings of work. Yesterday, Detroit went with a bullpen game, using six different relievers. There is a chance they could put an “opener” in front of Gipson-Long, which would help increase the chances he is the pitcher of record in the fifth inning and in line for a potential win bonus.
DFS models and projection systems are all over the place today for RHP Mick Abel, who is being recalled from the Lehigh Valley IronPigs for a spot start in Toronto. In his debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates three weeks ago, he logged six clean innings and a hefty nine strikeouts. The salary is lofty across the DFS sites, which has his fantasy points-per-dollar ratio well down the list. He was drafted out of high school with the 15th overall selection in the 2020 MLB Draft.
Though he is only the 13th-ranked prospect in the Philadelphia system and not on any of the top-100 industry lists, the team has targeted this season for him to earn a spot in The Show. Expectations were that he would stay on track as a starter in Triple-A then be a callup after the Mid-Summer Classic to bolster the bullpen. Aaron Nola is on the injured list with an ankle issue, and Zack Wheeler did not travel to Toronto as he and his wife await the arrival of their third child. This is probably a one-game appearance for Abel, though he could get a second look with a strong performance tonight.
For those preferring a more traditional option, LHP Chris Sale, RHP Clarke Schmidt and LHP Kyle Harrison are all at home but in tougher matchups, while RHP Zebby Matthews presents as a discount dandy on the road in West Sacramento.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Value Target: Detroit Tigers
Last night the ChiSox used four relievers after starter Shane Smith, though nobody in the bullpen has had more than one appearance in the last 72 hours, though lefties Cam Booser (19 pitches) and Brandon Eisert (14) pitches did throw yesterday, so keep that in mind for pinch-hit potential for the Tigers.
Currently the Motor City Kitties rate out as one of the best value stacks on the main DFS sites, so it will be key to choose the hitters least likely to sub out of the game. Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and catcher Dillon Dingler would be the safest, along with switch-hitter Wenceel Perez, though his lineup slot could be anywhere in the order.
If it is a Shuster starting the game, Gleyber Torres is likely to be leading off, so he could have a chance at two at-bats with the platoon advantage. Andy Ibanez could easily be swapped out for Kerry Carpenter, though if Carpenter starts, he is safe as he is one of the better hitters on the team and could hold his own for one lefty-lefty at-bat.
The Dodgers are going against RHP Griffin “Tomato” Canning in Los Angeles, with the clock having stuck midnight on his Cinderella start to the season. Walks are again an issue, and this will be the second time the boys in blue have seen Canning in his last three starts. In turn the Mets are facing RHP Tony Gonsolin, who is average at best, making New York one of the five favorite full stacks on this slate.
Main Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins
Gunnar Hoglund was placed on the injured list Monday, joining J.T. Ginn, Ken Waldichuk and Luis Medina. The team has already used nine different starters this season, including Holman as the opener last night, with Newcomb on track to become the 10th. This is the second stint with the A’s for the 32-year-old southpaw, having pitched for the team in 2023 after being acquired from San Francisco, then being released just shy of one calendar year in the organization. This winter he signed with Boston, who had Newcomb make a handful of spot starts while also working as a reliever across 11 appearances before designating him for assignment and ultimately sending him back to the Athletics for cash considerations.
Tonight, the focus should be on Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and catcher Ryan Jeffers as the trio to target against Newcomb tonight. Royce Lewis is still finding his sea legs after returning from his most recent absence, while Harrison Bader is a solid differentiation play depending on where he lands in the lineup.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take Mick Abel under 4.5 total strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
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Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Part of the reason that models and projections are in conflict today for Abel, is that the projected Toronto lineup has a 16.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last two seasons. That is ridiculously low, however, Abel notched nine punchouts in his debut against Pittsburgh, which is also a relatively disciplined team, and he had nine, eight and eight strikeouts in the three games on either side of his MLB appearance.
The season long projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat, etc.) have Abel ranging from 7.9 to 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings, mostly working as a reliever. Your Ol’ Pal is struggling to go against the numbers and the machines creating the math, even though Abel may be a budding strikeout artist.
