MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Diamondbacks Delight! (Sept. 28)

Saturday has a sublime seven-game featured slate locking at 7:15 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today we’re exploring the MLB DFS projections with Stokastic’s industry-leading tools to uncover how to build MLB DFS stacks, find top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Andrew Heaney is the “best” pitching option on this murky slate filled with question marks. Thile Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool likes the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers as key MLB DFS picks.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 28

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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Andrew Heaney (TEX at LAA)

Rangers at – 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
$7,700 at DraftKings
$8,500 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers tool likes LHP Andrew Heaney on this “Vaya con Dios” slate. Neither team has much to play for, other than pride. Sadly the Rangers were not able to muster enough consistency this season to defend their World Series crown.

Today will be the 31st start of the season for Heaney, which is a career-high for the oft-injured hurler. Heaney also has logged 156 innings, which is is 8.2 more than last year and the most since 2018. Heaney has averaged exactly one strikeout per frame this season and has a chance to keep his 3.98 ERA under 4.00 with a decent outing.

Los Angeles is playing out the string, with a lineup filled with rookies. Jack Lopez, Eric Wagaman and Gustavo Campero are getting their first taste of MLB life and this trio has 39 combined plate appearances against southpaws in The Show. The Halos are likely to start Michael Stefanic and Jordyn Adams while their left-handed counterparts watch from the dugout. This duo has 162 and 21 career plate appearances against southpaws.

That means if Heaney can neutralize the likes of Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe, Brandon Drury and journeyman Kevin Pillar, he should be able to vie for top fantasy honors.

Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Emerson Hancock (SEA vs. OAK)

Mariners vs. Athletics – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,300 at DraftKings
$10,600 at FanDuel
n/a at Yahoo

Considering that Kansas City clinched the final wild card slot last night, with the Twins losing in Minnesota, it is hard to know just how long RHP Seth Lugo will pitch tonight. The Royals could catch Detroit, but the team with the better record is going to Baltimore, while the other squad will be in Houston. There is no real reason for gamesmanship, other than to make sure everyone is healthy and available for the postseason.

That leaves RHP Emerson Hancock as the next man up, with a top-shelf matchup against Oakland. The sixth-overall selection of the 2020 MLB Draft got a taste of The Show last year, logging a dozen innings. This year he got his first chance at the Triple-A level and it looks like he will be up with the parent club going forward. Strikeouts are not really a part of Hancock’s game, with 5.6 per nine in his 67.1 big league innings, with ZiPS, Steamer and The Bat expecting him to be in the 6.5 per nine range. That said, he definitely should carve out a solid career as a back-of-the-rotation starter, though he is more substance than flash or upside.

Over their last 10 games, the Athletics have pushed only 26 runners across the plate. The team does have power from both sides of the plate, but strikeouts and a lack of consistent baserunners make them a team to target with all pitchers. Though he is ready for a 90-pitch workload, it would be a surprise to see the 25-year-old Hancock go beyond the fifth inning tonight.

Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD at COL)

Dodgers at Rockies – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,300 at DraftKings
$9,100 at FanDuel
$48 at Yahoo

While RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto has the best “raw” fantasy point projection tonight, it is basically a two strikeout margin between the “rookie” and the rest of the peloton. Philadelphia could overtake the Dodgers for the best record in the league, since the Phillies had the better head-to-head record against Los Angeles. LA would need to lose out, while the Phillies win out and their game will likely be finished around the time Yamamoto takes the mound tonight.

This will be the fourth appearance for Yamamoto, who missed nearly three months with a rotator cuff/shoulder issue. He has seen his workload increase from 59 to 72 to 79 pitches, but with him being the second best healthy pitcher behind Jack Flaherty, sorry Clayton Kershaw, why would the Dodgers push him for more than 70-to-75 pitches or four innings? Though that could be enough for him to put up a meaningful score, considering the rest of the flotsam and jetsam that makes up the pitcher pool.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks vs. Padres – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Randy Vasquez
DK Top Stack %: 7.2%
FD Top Stack %: 7.5%

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is looking to Arizona, Atlanta and the New York Mets as the teams to target, since this troika is tripping over each other for the final two National League playoff berths. There was an overnight schedule update, that clarified RHP Randy Vasquez would take the mound today, with LHP Martin Perez Sunday’s starter.

Vasquez was moved between the Padres and Triple-A El Paso eight times this season, returning to San Diego after spending September with the Chihuahuas.

The 25-year-old has performed relatively well in in the minors, but that has not translated against big league batsmen. In 122 Triple-A innings, he has collected 10.3 strikeouts per nine frames, though that has dipped dramatically to 6.3 per nine in his 129.2 innings, between the Yankees and Friars.

Going right back to the usual suspects is key, with Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez, Joc Pederson and Christian Walker, forming the core crew for any Arizona stacks. Depending on where he lands in the lineup, Jake McCarthy is also an option with his stolen base upside and the D’Backs in must-win mode.

Vasquez is also susceptible to power from both sides of the plate, which can facilitate a path to crooked numbers for opposing offenses. Considering that San Diego has clinched the top wild card ticket, they may be content to just let Vasquez ride this one out as long as he can, before bringing in some lesser relievers.

Main Slate Wild Card Target: New York Mets

Mets at Brewers – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Jared Koenig
DK Top Stack %: 6.5%
FD Top Stack %: 6.2%

Milwaukee has clinched the NL Central and even if Philadelphia were to lose both games this weekend, with the Brewers winning both, the Phillies hold the tiebreaker between these squads. Best guess is that RHP Tobias Myers starts on Sunday, leaving RHP Colin Rea as a potential multi-inning reliever for the playoffs. That is a long way of getting to the point, which is that the Brewers are likely going to make this a bullpen game.

New York is in the three-team scrum with Atlanta and Arizona, with only two teams making the playoffs. Francisco Lindor returned to action last night, after missing the better part of two weeks with a sore back. This is going to be a pain management situation going forward and with backs being tricky, he has elevated risk of leaving the game. He did have a pair of hits and a walk on Friday, so casuals may believe he is good to go. DFS gamers need to be cognizant of the downside, though leaving the best hitter out of stacks, particularly a switch-hitter in a bullpen game, seems like folly.

Mark Vientos has had a stellar breakout this year and he is a capable hitter, with power upside against righties and lefties. The same goes for Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, with this foursome likely being at the top of the lineup card. Starling Marte has struggled against same-handed hurlers, but he is not really a pinch hit risk. J.D. Martinez could always run into one, but he is a boom-bust option at this point, with zero fantasy points well within his range of outcomes.

React App

 

RHP Justin Verlander is one of the best pitchers in the history of the game, but Father Time is undefeated. That makes it a savvy strategy to target the 41-year-old in the sports wagering market.

The Portfolio EV model has the elder statesman projected for 4.6 strikeouts, which is above the 4.5 threshold, but of course that is still below the five needed for this under to lose and there are no fractional strikeouts.

Currently, this opportunity stands out on FanDuel where it is available at +750 odds.

Portfolio EV shows this wager has -129 “true odds,” and while that is a slim ROI 2.9%, this is still a favorable wager.

 

We can see that Fliff has a -145 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 6% ROI. Be a smart shopper!

In his four September outings, Verlander has logged 107, 75, 89 and 86 pitches. These have resulted in three, zero, two and four strikeouts, with the venerable veteran closing out the fifth inning only once. Houston has clinched the AL West and really can’t change their seeding, so this is likely a maintenance start, making it probably that Verlander is only in the mix for 70 or so pitches today or four innings.

With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.

Final Thoughts for Saturday, Sept. 28

Keep tabs on Atlanta, though the rest of the featured slate should be dry. Before locking in your MLB DFS picks, make sure to visit the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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