MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Finding Differentiation is Key (Sept. 23)

Monday brings a short four-game featured slate getting underway at 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today we’re exploring the MLB DFS projections with Stokastic’s industry-leading tools to uncover how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Hunter Brown stands out as the lead pitcher, and veteran Eduardo Rodriguez is a solid discount dandy. According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Boston Red Sox are key targets for MLB DFS picks.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 23

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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown (HOU vs. SEA)

Astros vs. Mariners – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$9,300 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers tool has three pitchers standing out above the fray, though this group is separated by less than 2 fantasy points on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo.

Seattle’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread (6.2%), while Houston (99.8%) has all but landed a playoff berth. The Astros are unlikely to catch the Guardians, and the Yankees are out of reach as well, though the team is only one game behind the Orioles with playoff seeding on the line.

This will be the fourth time that RHP Hunter Brown has faced the Mariners, though the most recent matchup was over two months ago. Since the start of August, the 26-year-old has had one game where he allowed more than two runs. In these eight games, the frontline starter has compiled a 2.25 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, 45 strikeouts and only 13 walks across 48 innings.

The M’s lead the league with a 27% strikeout rate while averaging a scant 4.12 runs per game, which is above the dregs but not by much. Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Jorge Polanco and Luke Raley have a collective 29% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, which plays right into the strength of Brown.

Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI vs. SF)

Diamondbacks vs. Giants – 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$6,500 at DraftKings
$7,500 at FanDuel
$35 at Yahoo

RHPs Aaron Nola and Chris Bassitt both have a better median fantasy point projection than LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. However, the veteran lefty has a significant salary discount, less popularity and access to some strikeout upside.

Tonight will be only the ninth start of the year for the 31-year-old southpaw, losing the first four months of the season with shoulder soreness.

Of course, with Arizona positioned for another run at the World Series, the Diamondbacks are happy to have Rodriguez peaking at the right time. In his last two starts, he has recorded 18 strikeouts, including 11 in Coors Field last Wednesday.

San Francisco continues to be pesky, but the projected lineup has four batsmen with a 29.2% strikeout rate or higher against left-handed pitching this season. The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed for this series, which gives a slight boost to pitchers.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks vs. Giants – 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Hayden Birdsong
DK Top Stack %: 20.4%
FD Top Stack %: 20.8%

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is impressed with Arizona, as the team has scored 379 runs since the All-Star Break, which is 55 more than the vaunted Los Angeles Dodgers. Yes, that is nearly a full run per game separating the two top squads.

RHP Hayden Birdsong has shown glimpses of talent, which should not be too surprising, since he is the top prospect for San Francisco.

However, the 23-year-old is still in need of more polish, having started the season in Double-A, getting two starts at Triple-A and then making it to The Show.

Walks have been an issue for Birdsong with 5.46 per nine innings, even outpacing his 4.05 to 4.41 per nine as estimated by ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat, etc. Three weeks ago, Birdsong handed out five walks to the Diamondbacks in San Francisco, and he has issued 16 free passes in his last 25.2 innings.

Power is not an problem for Arizona, with six hitters in the projected lineup posting a .200 ISO or higher against right-handed pitchers this season. Joc Pederson (.403 wOBA, .257 ISO, 388 plate appearances) and Pavin Smith (.400 wOBA, .283 ISO, 123 PAs) have been particularly effective.

Then, of course, there are stalwarts such as Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker who check all the DFS boxes. Depending on your DFS site of choice, veteran slugger Eugenio Suarez and speedster Jake McCarthy are potential discount dandies.

Main Slate Secondary Target: Boston Red Sox

Red Sox at Blue Jays – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Bassitt
DK Top Stack %: 10.5%
FD Top Stack %: 11.6%

There is going to be some traction for RHP Chris Bassitt tonight, with the Red Sox having one of the lower implied team totals. That means the Boston bats are likely to provide direct leverage against the Bassitt backers.

Once upon a time, Bassitt was excellent at run prevention, but the 35-year-old has a lot of mileage on his arm, and three times this season he has allowed seven runs, with three other starts of at least five runs.

While the venerable veteran has struck out a hitter per inning for just the second time of his career, he is also allowing 1.43 baserunners per inning, which is his highest rate since 2014, when he had 29.2 innings as a rookie with the Chicago White Sox.

Rafael Devers is out with a shoulder injury, but there are still several appealing BoSox bats. Masataka Yoshida has a nice personal history against Bassitt, with Triston Casas, Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu rounding out the key stacking components.

React App

 

RHP Hayden Birdsong is someone to go after in both the DFS market and in the sports wagering world. Again, to be clear, he has talent, it is just a lack of experience above Double-A that is holding him back.

The Portfolio EV model has the 23-year-old hurler for around 4.6 strikeouts tonight, which is a little higher than the 4.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.

Currently, this opportunity stands out on Hard Rock where it is available at -105 odds.

Portfolio EV shows this wager has -107 “true odds,” and while that is a slim ROI, this is still a favorable wager.

We can see that Pinnacle has a punitive -120 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 5% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!

Birdsong has gotten extra rest in between most of his last season starts, which makes sense as this is the first time he has cleared 100 innings as a professional. The Giants have nothing to play for, so if Birdsong is laboring or just doesn’t have it tonight, he could get a quick hook. That combines nicely with a tough matchup and is yet another path towards the young hurler exiting the game prior to recording his fifth strikeout.

With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.

Final Thoughts for Monday, Sept. 23

Three of the four games are in covered venues, and with the weather looking good in Philadelphia, there are no precipitation concerns for today. Before locking in your MLB DFS picks, make sure to visit the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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