Thursday is a light day, with frontloaded action locking at 12:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel. and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Edward Cabrera and veteran Nathan Eovaldi as key arms, with the Texans and Orioles being top stacks.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 2
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
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Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Edward Cabrera vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 12:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $9,600 | Yahoo $42
The slimmed down player pool does not leave a lot to work with, as most teams in the league are repositioning for the upcoming weekend series. There are two clear top pitching options, with the safest of that duo being RHP Edward Cabrera.
Two years ago, the now 26-year-old was one of Miami’s top prospects. There is no questioning the talent and upside potential for Cabrera, who had 10.66 strikeouts per nine innings last year, with just 0.99 home runs per nine. His undoing is control as evidenced by the unsightly 5.96 walks per nine innings. That led to an elevated ERA over the advanced comparables, but this could be the season where he puts it all together and becomes a top-25 starter.
This will be the fourth start of the season for Cabrera and he has tallied 90 or more pitches in two of his three appearances. In his 15.1 innings, he has a lofty 21 strikeouts, allowing just one home run and three doubles on the extra-bas hit front. Ryan McMahon is the only troublesome hitter in the lineup today, so this further enhances the appeal of Cabrera.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Nathan Eovaldi vs. Washington Nationals — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $10,100 | Yahoo $44
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool currently has RHP Nathan Eovaldi as a top-two option today, though he projects to be a full-step below Cabrera, while being just ahead of the likes of lefties Carlos Rodon (tougher matchup) and Kyle Harrison (weather). Eovaldi is no spring chicken, having made his MLB debut all the way back in 2011. He is still a capable pitcher and of course was key in the postseason last year as the Rangers won the World Series.
The 34-year-old still is able to generate around a strikeout per inning and his fastball still sits around 95 mph, which is impressive given his long tenure in the league. His main appeal today is the matchup against the hapless Washington offense, though his services are not cheap on FanDuel or DraftKings.
The Nationals have won five of their last six games, but that is being done with smoke-and-mirrors, along with a healthy helping of luck. Three of their five most feared hitters are on the injured list, which has leadoff man CJ Abrams looking pretty lonely in the lineup. Since the beginning of last year, the projected lineup for the Nats has an anemic .106 ISO against right-handed pitchers, so while their 18.7% strikeout rate is low, the complete lack of power plays perfectly into Eovaldi’s strengths.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles vs. LHP Carlos Rodon — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
This is going to be a “both-sideser” as LHP Carlos Rodon is still projecting as a top-three pitcher on this slate, while Baltimore has an impressive offense. Additionally, it is going to be a warm one this afternoon in Camden Yards, with game-time temperatures in the mid-80s.
Last year Rodon made just 14 starts as his first season with the Yankees was marred by an arm injury as well as a balky back. It clearly impacted him as he had the second worst season of his career. This year he has been off to a strong start, though the Batters of Birdland are a tough crew to deal with.
Rodon has been solid on the power front this season and he deserves a mulligan for last year. Of course the will still need to navigate the trio of Adley Rustchman, Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander, who could make him miserable with a longball or two.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Texas Rangers vs. LHP Mitchell Parker — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool loves the Rangers again today, even after they did not score a single run on Wednesday, with unlikely hero RHP Trevor Williams throwing five scoreless innings despite ceding five hits and issuing four walks. LHP Mitchell Parker has had decent results in his 16 innings of action, but he was not expected to be in The Show at all this year. The 24-year-old has a grand total of 14.1 Triple-A innings and if not for an injury to RHP Josiah Gray, the 24-year-old would be in Rochester, gaining valuable experience. Parker is the 29th ranked prospect for the Nationals, so anything positive he brings to the big club this season is a bonus.
Above average walks and below average strikeouts are not a good mix when going against Texas. Focus on Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia at the top of the order, with switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim and rookie Wyatt Langford as options to extend things out to a full-stack.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Today we can look to Kyle Harrison and his under 5.5 strikeouts prop, which is currently available on FanDuel. at +132, which is a lofty number and one likely to be pulled quickly.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -102 “true odds,” and the +132 line provides a stellar 17.2% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to “shop the lines” as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with odds and this can be seen with Pinnacle all the way down at -120, which is just ridiculous by comparison.
Harrison does project for 5.4 strikeouts today, so that is on the dot and the 51% probability of the under occurring show how this coinflip of an opportunity, suddenly becomes a wildly favorable wager with the +132 line.
In his six starts this season, Harrison has recorded more than five strikeouts twice (7 and 8), with two other appearances of five. The projected lineup for Boston has struck out 23.0% of the time against southpaws over the last season and change, while Harrison has an identical 23.0% strikeout rate in that same time frame. There is also some weather in the area, that could create an in-game impact, that would also work against Harrison.
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Final Thoughts for Thursday, May 2 — MLB DFS Picks
Boston is the only game with weather concerns, though with San Francisco playing in Philadelphia starting tomorrow, it is actually the Red Sox who have to travel further with their next series in Minnesota. It is likely the teams will do whatever is needed to get this game in as it is the last meeting of the season between these two franchises. Be sure to check your favorite DFS meteorological resources closer to first pitch to see if there are any updates.
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