How To Use MLB DFS Sims To Win On DK & FanDuel

If you play MLB DFS, the hard part was never naming the good players. It's deciding how much of each one to play across a whole pool of lineups, then knowing which of those builds actually gives you the best shot at first place. That's the exact problem the MLB DFS Sims are built to solve, and it's how I attack large-field baseball tournaments on DraftKings 🎁 and FanDuel 🎁. This is the same simulation approach Stokastic (formerly Awesemo.com) has used to put players in its Hall of Fame, walked through step by step. If you're still learning the strategy this tool automates, our MLB DFS stacking guide and how to win at MLB DFS cover the fundamentals; the Sims put them on autopilot. Pull up today's board in the MLB DataHub and follow along.

Prefer to watch? This guide began as our video walkthrough: How to Use Stokastic MLB Sims (DraftKings & FanDuel).

Step 1: Build Your Pool In The Contest Sims (Match The Field, Don't Fight It)

Everything starts in the Contest Sims (the contest generator), where you build the pool of lineups that ultimately gets simulated. Before you press Generate, four settings matter:

The mindset that trips up most players is right here: this stage is about emulating the field, not building the lineups you personally want. You are modeling what everyone else will roster so the simulation has a realistic opponent pool to beat. You shape your exposures later, once the sim tells you which builds actually win.

Once you generate, each player shows a projected ownership next to your pool exposure, so you can see where your build already differs from the field. If you think a hitter or arm will run hotter than the model says, nudge his ownership up with the Boost Ownership arrows and regenerate so the simulated field reflects it. One shortcut worth knowing: if you don't want to simulate at all, you can rank the generated lineups straight off projections and ownership and upload them as-is. But the simulation is where the edge lives, so that is what the rest of this walkthrough does.

New to the Sims? The MLB Sims build a full lineup pool, simulate it against a real tournament field thousands of times, and hand you the lineups with the best simulated ROI, plus the leverage, ROI-boost, and exposure controls below. Try the Stokastic MLB package free for 7 days, and code MLBDFS10 takes 10% off your first month.

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Step 2: Run The Contest Simulation (Let Sim ROI Rank Your Lineups)

Once you have a pool you like, click Simulate Lineups and it drops straight into the Pre-Contest Simulator. Check the settings across the top before you run anything: confirm the site and slate are still right, then set percentage to first (first-place prize divided by the total prize pool) to match your contest's payout shape. If a $400,000 prize pool pays $100,000 to the winner, that's 25% to first. When the exact figure isn't in the dropdown (say a payout works out to 33%), just pick the nearest option. This one setting matters more than people expect, because a top-heavy contest rewards a very different lineup than a flat, spread-out payout.

Projections are flexible here too. Run the sim on Stokastic's own projections and ownership (what most players do), upload your own via CSV, or hand-edit a single player's projected points, ownership, or batting position right in the table. When the data looks right, press Run Contest Simulation.

Here is what actually happens next: every lineup in your pool is simulated against the rest, thousands of times, inside that exact payout structure, then sorted by simulated ROI. That is the whole point of the approach. Sim ROI is the all-encompassing number because it folds in everything at once: how often a lineup min-cashes, how often it hits the top 10, how often it wins, and how often it gets duped. A lineup that wins but is duplicated ten times is not as profitable as a unique one, so the simulation discounts it. You can also sort by any single metric (cash rate, top-10 rate, win rate) if you want to zero in on one contest goal, and separate tabs break out individual player ROI and full-stack ROI.

The key shift: you are not chasing the single highest-projected lineup. You are ranking thousands of builds by how they finish against a simulated field, with dupes and payout shape already baked in. That ranking is the edge a lone projection can't give you.

Step 3: Shape Your Exposures (A Worked Leverage Example)

This is where you turn "the best lineups by ROI" into "the best lineups I actually want exposure to." Favorite the top lineups by Sim ROI (say the top 150), then open the exposures tab, where the number that matters is leverage: your exposure minus projected ownership.

Here is the mechanic in a role-based example, since it works the same on any slate. Say the field is piling onto one $10,000 ace at roughly 35% projected ownership while a similar-priced arm sits near 12%. If your favorited pool has you at 25% on a low-owned leadoff bat against just 9% projected ownership, that is strongly positive leverage, exactly the under-owned upside that wins large-field GPPs. If you find yourself underweight a player you like (5% exposure against 21% ownership is about -16% leverage), you have two levers:

• Boost The Ones You Want. Give a player a ROI boost and press adjust favorites; his exposure climbs automatically, no re-favoriting by hand.
• Cap The Ones You're Overexposed To. If a popular ace shows up in 47% of your lineups and you want less, set a hard 40% exposure cap and every favorited build past 40% that contains him gets passed over.

From there you can go further with groups (pairing two correlated hitters and nudging that combo up or down together) or make a global stack change in one move, for example dropping a team's total stack exposure with a single negative boost. None of it is required, but it's how you dial the pool to your read. When you're set, Export Favorites straight to your DraftKings or FanDuel entries. And once lineups lock, late swap is the highest-value move left: a scratched player or a batting-order change rewrites everything, so revisit the board before first pitch.

Tournaments Vs. Cash Games (An Important Scope Note)

Everything above (a large pool, simulating it against a tournament field, setting percentage to first, leveraging ownership) is the GPP, or tournament, process. The Contest Sims are built around tournament dynamics: a top-heavy payout, thousands of opponents, and getting leverage off the chalk.

Cash games are a different game. In a double-up or 50/50 you only need to beat roughly half the field, so the target is the highest-floor lineup built straight off projections, not a leveraged, contrarian, simulated pool. Don't run your GPP pool into cash. Build cash lineups around the projections and floor you'll find in the MLB DataHub instead.

For more on this, see MLB DFS Primer for DraftKings and FanDuel and Shrink The Field: The DFS Leverage Strategy That Won $830K.

Why The Sims Beat Picking "The Best Players"

Because MLB is the most volatile DFS sport there is, and the Sims are honest about it. Instead of one projected score, the simulation shows you how often each lineup wins, hits the top 10, min-cashes, and gets duped, the full range of outcomes rather than a single number that hides the variance. Even your strongest pre-lock lineup can crater on a given night.

The whole edge in one line: a lineup's projected total tells you almost nothing on its own; how it finishes across thousands of simulated contests tells you what it's actually worth.

No process makes baseball safe, but optimizing thousands of simulated contests, leveraging ownership, and capping over-exposed chalk is how you tilt a high-variance game in your favor across a full season. It pairs naturally with our MLB DFS strategy guide: read the concepts there, then let the Sims execute them at scale. You can never bank on a single result, which is exactly why the goal is win probability over a large sample, not a promise.

If you want to feel the workflow before you subscribe, sample it with our free DFS Sims first. When you're ready for the full Contest Sims, ownership leverage, and exposure controls above, the Stokastic MLB package unlocks all of it. New users get a free 7-day trial, and code MLBDFS10 takes 10% off your first month: start your free trial

Frequently Asked Questions

What are MLB DFS Sims? They're a DFS contest simulator that builds a large pool of lineups, then runs them against each other through thousands of simulated contests (paying out a real GPP structure) and ranks every lineup by simulated ROI instead of a single projected score. Think of it as an MLB DFS lineup optimizer that optimizes for win probability, not one projection.

How many lineups should I build? Match your pool size to the contest field. For a large-field GPP, the biggest pool (up to 5,000 lineups on the Max package) models the field most closely; the basic build tops out around 500. For a small single-entry contest, pick the size nearest that field.

Do I have to use Stokastic's projections? No. Run the Sims on Stokastic projections (most players do), upload your own via CSV, or hand-edit individual players' projected points, ownership, or batting position and rewind any change.

What's the difference between leverage and ownership? Projected ownership is how much of the field is expected to roster a player; leverage is your exposure minus that ownership. Positive leverage means you're overweight a low-owned player, the upside that wins tournaments.

Can I use the Sims for MLB showdown? Yes, single-game showdown slates are supported alongside classic. Watch dupes more closely in showdown: the pools are smaller and there are far fewer roster combinations, so identical lineups spike, and the Sims fold that dupe risk into Sim ROI.

Will the Sims win me every contest? No. Nothing in DFS does, and MLB is especially high-variance. The Sims are built to improve your win probability over a large sample, not to promise any single result.

The Bottom Line

The MLB DFS Sims replace guesswork with a repeatable loop: build a pool that mirrors the field, simulate it thousands of times against a real payout, and let simulated ROI (not a lone projection) rank your lineups, then shape exposures with leverage, boosts, and caps before you export. It won't make a high-variance sport safe, but run this every slate and you're playing the long game the math actually rewards.

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