MLB Bet Pro has a lot of games to sort through due to yesterday’s smoke-induced postponements. That said, here we will mostly be focusing on the later games, as the early-afternoon start times are not seeing quite as much EV as those games. In particular, MLB Bet Pro has found some real leverage on the market in the Red Sox-Guardians game, plus a good spot to short one of the best pitchers of his generation. Let’s get down to business with the best MLB player props for June 8.
Please note that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has over 100 other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to both NBA and MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Top MLB Player Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | June 8
3. Justin Turner Under 1.5 Total Bases (-155, BetMGM)
It is not particularly fun shorting Turner since he has gone over 1.5 in three of his last six and has found timely hits throughout his career, but that is going to be the move tonight. Turner gets a matchup with Aaron Civale, and Civale is off to a rip-roaring start to 2023, having allowed only four total earned runs in his 17.2 innings spanning three starts. Two of those starts were scoreless outings in which he allowed four hits or fewer as well. And though Civale’s strikeout rate is low, he is allowing just a .242 slugging and has yet to surrender a single extra-base hit. Now, that could even out since Civale’s career ISO allowed is pushing .200, but Turner is not the greatest power threat at this point.
All told, Turner has hit this over in just 22 of 59 games (37.3%), and his slugging and ISO are both at 10-year lows. Essentially, that means Turner’s best shot at this over is getting multiple hits — which Civale has largely prevented, averaging 7.6 hits allowed per nine. This is not a great environment for Turner, and MLB Bet Pro gives him a 64% chance of staying under 1.5 total bases.
2. Justin Verlander Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105, DraftKings)
The sample is still small for Verlander this year, but early returns are eye-opening. His strikeout rate is down to 20.6% and his per-nine clip is 7.5 — both of which are his worst marks since 2014. He is also walking batters at a slightly higher rate.
On a start-to-start basis, Verlander has been OK. He has only really been shelled twice in six outings, but one of those came just two starts ago when he gave up six earned runs and only struck out two. He has only exceeded this 5.5 line twice this year, and though one of them was his last time out, the start immediately prior shows that he does not seem to be hitting a stride yet.
The matchup with the Braves does not help since they have power to spare up and down the lineup. They strike out slightly more than average, but they also have a good shot at home to chase Verlander early. As such, MLB Bet Pro projects him for just 5.3 strikeouts and a 11% EV on the under.
1. Matt Dermody Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+125, DraftKings)
To be honest, most of what is known about Dermody at this point has little to do with what he has done on the mound. That said, he is getting the spot start tonight for the Red Sox and has a strikeout line of 3.5 that seems appropriate for a guy with two major league appearances since 2017.
There is not a ton pointing in Dermody’s favor for this over — the Guardians strike out at the league’s second-lowest rate, he has pitched one inning since 2020 and gave up two runs in that inning, and his leash is likely to be extremely short. However, Dermody’s strikeout numbers in limited MLB action are passable, with 7.2 per nine and an 18.2% strikeout rate. At that clip he would have to face 17 batters on average to strike out more than 3.5 of them — aka go almost two times through the order. That is not an unreasonable expectation for a guy making a spot start trying to just eat some innings.
MLB Bet Pro loves this play because of the value, not the 49% expected win rate. Right now it is the No. 1 MLB player prop on the board for both EV and sEV.
![College football Week 5 continues with a four-game Friday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let's get into the CFB Week 5 DFS picks and projections for Friday, Sept. 29. CFB Week 5 DFS Picks and Projections | Friday, Sept. 29 Quarterback Emory Jones ($6,900): The top price-adjusted quarterback on the slate, Emory Jones, and the Cincinnati Bearcats are 2-point favorites over BYU in a game with a 48 total. Jones averages 242.5 passing yards per game on 31 attempts. He also has elite mobility, with 32 designed attempts through four games. Hank Bachmeier ($5,800): Hank Bachmeier should have a better chance to play this game after being available "in case of emergency" last week. Louisiana Tech ranks 63rd in pace and passes 55.6% of the time. This makes whoever starts at quarterback a strong value. Jack Turner played well in place of Bachmeier last week and actually looks to provide decent mobility. If Bachmeier misses, Turner is an easy swap option. Jack Plummer ($8,500): On a relatively weak quarterback slate, Jack Plummer stands out between the pair of expensive options. Louisville comes in as a 3-point favorite over North Carolina State in a game with a 55.5 total. Plummer has averaged 280 passing yards per game and is hyper-efficient. The North Carolina State defense projects to provide little resistance, allowing 8.3 yards per attempt. Plummer also has 13 designed rush attempts this year, which helps prevent the negative rushing stats from early in his career. the_ad id="340345"] Running Back Jawhar Jordan ($7,000): Louisville has begun to feature Jawhar Jordan at the expense of Isaac Guerendo and Maurice Turner. Jordan has 18 carries in back-to-back games and four targets in that span. His route rate has also eclipsed 50% in those two games. Jacob Fields ($3,700): Louisiana Tech is dealing with injuries to Keith Willis Jr., Charvis Thornton and Tyre Shelton. Marquis Crosby has also yet to play this year. If this injury situation breaks right, Jacob Fields should lead a committee also featuring Keldric Moody. This is a pure late-news situation. L.J. Martin ($5,100): Corey Kiner ($4,700): Ryan Montgomery left last week's game with an injury, allowing Corey Kiner to receiver more work. He finished with 10 carries and three targets in a decisive loss to Oklahoma. His workload stands to increase in more competitive games. Watch Montgomery's status ahead of kickoff. Jaylon Glover ($5,000): Utah already lost Micah Bernard for the year, and Ja'Quinden Jackson enters this game with the questionable tag. If out, Jaylon Glover projects to handle a feature back workload. Last week he saw 25 carries and one target. Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s' college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now! Wide Receiver Isaac Rex ($4,700): Despite coming in as a slight underdog, BYU still ranks 58th in pace and passes 57.4% of the time. Tight end Isaac Rex not only paces the team in targets (34), but he has the best route rate of the group as well. Smoke Harris ($6,800): One of the premier receivers on the slate, Smoke Harris averages 73.4 receiving yards per game on a 26.9% target share. In the Louisiana Tech offense this equates to 8.6 targets per game. Braden Smith ($4,200): Braden Smith ranks second on Cincinnati with 22 targets this year, averaging 49.5 yards per game. He projects as one of the top price-adjusted receivers on the slate. Jamari Thrash ($6,600):  Jamari Thrash is one of the most explosive receivers in college football, averaging 100 yards per game behind a 25.2% target share. With little salary restrictions on this slate, Thrash should be a priority.
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