NBA DFS Advice Today: Luke Doncic Salary Season!

Josh Engleman here to break down everything you need to know about tonight’s NBA DFS slate, including a nugget on Luka Doncic heading into this evening. Let’s dive right into my NBA DFS advice for today, Monday, March 11.

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NBA DFS Advice Today: Luka Doncic <3

CHA (+3.5) @ DET (216.0) | NBA DFS Advice Today


The Charlotte Hornets are 3.5-point underdogs in Detroit taking on the Pistons. The total for the game is 216 points. The Hornets will be without Bryce McGowans, who is out with right knee swelling. Tre Mann is also listed as doubtful. They continue to be without Cody Martin, Seth Curry, LaMelo Ball, and Mark Williams.

Even in a good matchup and a pace-up spot against a weak defense, there’s not a lot of value to be found for Charlotte. Most of their team grades out very similarly relative to salary. You’ll see small amounts of ownership go to Brandon Miller, Grant Williams, Miles Bridges, Nick Richards, and Vasilije Micic.

The Pistons, on the other hand, look great. My first key option would be Jalen Duren ($6400, center only), grading out as my favorite Pistons play if we ignore position. If Jalen Duren isn’t your cup of tea, Isaiah Stewart is $5100 and power forward/center only, while Cade Cunningham is $8400 and point guard only; both of those guys look like priorities in my builds tonight, and I’m happy to get to Ausar Thompson and Jaden Ivey.

If you’re looking for more exposure to Detroit, Quentin Grimes is also probable for this game after missing the past few with right knee soreness.



DAL (-5.0) @ CHI (233.0) | NBA DFS Advice Today

The Dallas Mavericks are five-point favorites in Chicago taking on the Bulls. The game has a 233-point total. Dallas has their normal rotation available. The Bulls do have Torrey Craig back and is probable; otherwise, they are still without Zach LaVine. For Dallas, the tale of two guys: if you can find the salary to pay $12,400 for Luka Doncic, you should do that.

He is on an incredible string of 30+ point triple-doubles and should meet very little resistance against Chicago, other than the slow pace of this matchup. Dallas will lose two possessions off their average by facing the Bulls. The only alternative to Luka Dončić would be Kyrie Irving, an $8800 point guard/shooting guard, eligible mid-tier option if you’re paying up.

The Bulls, on the other hand, get the benefit of a giant pace-up spot and a bad Dallas Mavericks defense. DeMar DeRozan and Coby White are both playing 39 to 40 minutes each night, both looking like standout options at their current salaries. DeRozan is an $8200 small forward/power forward, while White is a $7900 point guard.

I think Nikola Vučević, who does play a few minutes less than White and DeRozan, also stands out at $8300 and creates a trio of exceptional value options for today’s six-game slate. You can still get to Alex Caruso and Ayo Dosunmu, but they look like secondary plays in comparison to the other three.

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GSW (-4.5) @ SAS (228.5) | NBA DFS Advice Today

The Golden State Warriors are 4.5-point favorites in San Antonio, taking on the Spurs. The game has a 228.5-point total. The Warriors will be without Steph Curry with a right ankle sprain, but Draymond Green and Moses Moody are both probable. The Spurs have everybody that is normally available.

I expected to see a few more value plays with Steph Curry unavailable; however, only two players stand out for the Warriors: one is Jonathan Kuminga ($7000, power forward), who sees a massive usage bump with Steph Curry out. Kuminga is projected for 28% usage, a 13% assist rate, and 11% rebounding rate. Also, Trayce Jackson-Davis moved into the starting lineup in their most recent game. He is a $4400 center only option, at north of a fantasy point per minute. If Davis can see somewhere in the 22 to 24-minute range, he will look like an excellent point-per-dollar play.

The Spurs are in a similar boat, only they’re getting their guy back, but I only see two plays that stand out for San Antonio. The first is the returning Victor Wembanyama. Wemby is $10,500 but center only; with him losing his power forward eligibility, he is much less interesting than he had been recently but still grades out as the best option from the Spurs.

If you’re looking to roster anyone else from San Antonio, Devin Vassell plays roughly 36 minutes a night; he is $7600 in point guard/shooting guard, eligible. Anything other than this for San Antonio is lineup filler.

TOR (+13.5) @ DEN (227.5)

The Toronto Raptors are 13.5-point underdogs in Denver, taking on the Nuggets. This game has a 227.5-point total. Toronto is still without Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl. They have questionable tags on RJ Barrett, Chris Boucher, and Bruce Brown; even with the ambiguity for Toronto, there are still only two plays that stand out to me. The first of which is Immanuel Quickley ($8500, point guard only), just shy of 5x, but 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the last 30 days lead me to want to roster Quickley on the chance that this game can be competitive. My other option would be Gary Trent Jr, a $5600 shooting guard only option. This is more of a minute play than a rate play, as Trent only projects for .8 DraftKings points per minute.

Meanwhile, the defending NBA champs have Nikola Jokić at $11,600, who should be exceptional in this matchup with Kelly Olynyk on the opposite side. I think Jokić looks like the best pay-up option on today’s slate and is my number one priority at the top. I’m also incredibly interested in Jamal Murray at $8200, point guard, 1.2 DraftKings points per minute over the last 30 days, and this is a matchup that should improve that rate so long as he gets the time and this game isn’t an aggressive blowout. 27% usage and near a 30% assist rate for Murray make him look like the clear second-best option behind Jokić.

BOS (-7.5) @ POR (216.5)

The Boston Celtics are 7.5-point favorites in Portland, taking on the Trail Blazers. This game has a 216.5-point total. To start the day, we know that Kristaps Porziņģis is out; however, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Jayson Tatum, and Derrick White are all questionable for today, which makes it difficult to break down the Boston Celtics.

If you knew everyone was in, Jayson Tatum stands out as my second favorite pay-up option on today’s slate, with the rest of the guys slotting in as completely reasonable options. If another guy ends up out, this will look even better for Boston in a great matchup against the Blazers, but at this point, we need a little bit more injury news before we can finally break down Boston since their entire starting five is questionable.

There’s not a lot to like here for Portland. We do have a questionable tag on Jerami Grant. They continue to be out with most of their guards and Jabari Walker. I think Deandre Ayton stands out as a reasonable option at $7300, center only. Similarly, Anfernee Simons at $8100, point guard/shooting guard eligible, would be my two main guys from Portland.

Although, if everybody ends up in for Boston, this is a horrific matchup. You can also work in Jerami Grant at $7100, small forward/power forward, but he looks more like an average play in comparison to Ayton and Simons.

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Nonetheless, hopefully you found our NBA DFS Advice Today column helpful, including our nugget on Luka Doncic.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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