NBA DFS Advice Today: Who’s Stopping These Kings?

Josh Engleman here to break down everything you need to know about tonight’s NBA DFS slate, including a nugget on De’Aaron Fox heading into this evening. Let’s dive right into my NBA DFS advice today, Thursday, March 21.

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NBA DFS Advice Today: Kings For The Day

New Orleans Pelicans (-3.0) at Orlando Magic (209.0) | NBA DFS Advice Today

This matchup does not present a good game from an NBA DFS perspective, and I find it challenging to identify priority plays from the Pelicans. Should I choose to roster anyone from New Orleans, it will likely be either Herbert Jones at $4,800, who plays both small forward and power forward, or Zion Williamson at $8,600, a power forward who has been exceptional over the past month — 1.36 fantasy points per minute, over a 28% usage rate and a 25% assist rate.

The game features two top-5 defenses, with Orlando being a bottom-5 team in terms of pace and New Orleans also below average. Assuming the Magic are at full strength, the situation is somewhat similar. Players like Cole Anthony at $4,400, Franz Wagner at $6,900 or Paolo Banchero at $8,800 become marginally more interesting. Nonetheless, this game is unlikely to produce many standout plays, especially when considering other games with significantly higher totals such as the Kings-Wizards game, which exceeds this one by 25 points.



Sacramento Kings (-11.0) at Washington Wizards (236.5) | NBA DFS Advice Today

The Kings are playing on a back-to-back, leaving some uncertainty regarding their injury status. Assuming no significant changes from the previous day, this game is a crucial one for today’s DFS slate. Possible key players include De’Aaron Fox at $9,300, who is expected to face little resistance from the Washington defense, and Domantas Sabonis at $11,000, who is averaging 1.54 fantasy points per minute over the last 30 days. Additionally, options like Keegan Murray at $5,800, Malik Monk at $6,600 and possibly Keon Ellis at $4,100, who recently started in place of Kevin Huerter, appear promising.

The Wizards present a less predictable scenario with players like Deni Avdija and Richaun Holmes being questionable, though Kyle Kuzma has returned. With a mid-tier defense and relatively fast pace from Sacramento, this matchup is a favorable scenario for Washington, making Avdija and Kuzma particularly appealing options if they play.

Chicago Bulls (+3.5) at Houston Rockets (217.5) | NBA DFS Advice Today

There are big questions for Chicago, and those will be the statuses of Coby White and Alex Caruso, who are both questionable. White missed the previous three games with a right hip strain. Caruso has been able to play but is perpetually questionable. If both guys are in, it really limits the interest in Chicago, as the Rockets have an above-average defense, although they do play at a relatively fast pace. White would be a preferred option at $7,600 assuming he steps back into his normal minutes. Nikola Vucevic looks pretty interesting at $8,500 and has a much easier matchup without Alperen Sengun on the opposite side. And finally, DeMar DeRozan would look like a secondary play. If White and/or Caruso are out, we will increase the amount of value coming from Chicago.

Houston has had the same rotation for the past four games since the injuries to Sengun and Cam Whitmore. While this is a pace-down spot against Chicago, there is a lot of opportunity to go around still with no Sengun. VanVleet is $8,200 point guard only and has a nearly 35% assist rate with Sengun off the floor. Jalen Green has been on a tear as of late, averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute over the past 30 days, getting increased opportunities across the board and an over-30% usage rate with no Sengun. Amen Thompson will continue to be popular and has point guard and small forward eligibility at $6,300. He’s had unsustainable shooting lately, so keep your eye on his efficiency, but the opportunity is certainly there with the Rockets shorthanded. Dillon Brooks will continue to haunt us, but at $4,400 and power forward only, he still provides mild value even though he’s been scoring just barely over a half fantasy point per minute over the past 30 days.

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Brooklyn Nets (+9.0) at Milwaukee Bucks (222.5)

Brooklyn has a questionable tag on Nic Claxton and will be without Dorian FinneySmith due to left ankle soreness. There are some options that look good for Brooklyn. Milwaukee plays at a relatively neutral pace and average defense, and it could potentially be without Giannis Antetokounmpo — who did not play yesterday — and/or Khris Middleton.

For Brooklyn, Cam Johnson looks like a preferred option as a $5,100 power forward who should see some additional playing time without Finney-Smith. Dennis Schroder averages around 0.9 fantasy points per minute, playing around 34 minutes per game as the starting point guard. Both he and Johnson are the best options, with Mikal Bridges and Claxton as secondary plays. If Claxton happens to be out, Day’Ron Sharpe will become a priority value option.

We’ll need to wait on the status of Milwaukee on its back-to-back. If Giannis is in, he’s a $11,400 power forward and center and will look like a high-level payoff option. He will rank behind Luka Doncic for me in this spot. Damian Lillard is the only other guy I see as viable, although a $9,500 price tag is quite high for Lillard’s status with Giannis in.

Utah Jazz (+13.5) at Dallas Mavericks (238.5)

While the Jazz are on a back-to-back and we don’t have official injury status, it is expected that Lauri Markkanen will return for this game. He sat at the front end of the back-to -ack for rest purposes. If Markkanen is in, even in a fantastic matchup against Dallas, the Jazz do not look appealing. Markkanen and Collin Sexton are the two guys I would get to first, although the expectation is limited exposure to Utah, as its prices are inflated based off of Markkanen’s previous extended absence.

Dallas, on the other hand, looks fantastic. Doncic is $12,700 and point guard only, but he looks like the standout top play on today’s slate. He’s averaging 1.81 fantasy points per minute over the past month and faces the second-worst defense in the league and a top-10 team in pace. I would be happy to get to P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford and Kyrie Irving as well, with Dante Exum, Dereck Lively and Derrick Jones Jr. all working as secondary to tertiary plays.

New York Knicks (+9.0) at Denver Nuggets (209.0)

This is a matchup between two of the slowest teams in the league, and at elevation, we certainly don’t have a great game environment. The Knicks are short-handed. O.G. Anunoby is out once again, which should see heavily increased minutes to the guys that already play. Donte DiVincenzo is my preferred option as a $6,400 shooting guard and small forward averaging around 0.95 fantasy points per minute, with the option to play significantly more minutes if things are going well. Jalen Brunson is another $9,000 point guard for today’s slate that will be difficult to sift through, but Brunson adds himself to the list, along with Fox, White, Irving and Lillard. I also see Miles McBride and Josh Hart as viable options. Hart played every single second of the Knicks’ most recent game, and McBride saw the biggest bump in minutes with Anunoby out.

Denver looks like it always does. We have a $12,000 center-only Nikola Jokic, who is great but definitely ranks behind Doncic and potentially behind Sabonis based on salary. Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are both perfectly reasonable secondary plays, with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr. as tertiary options.

Hopefully you found our NBA DFS Advice Today column helpful.

Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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