NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Going Against the Grain With Victor Wembanyama (Jan. 22)

The NBA is back with a seven-game slate on Monday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, including Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

Contrarian Stud — Luka Doncic: Boston Celtics-Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings tonight at $11,200, coming into tonight’s action averaging 33.6 points, 9.2 assists, 8.3 rebounds and 2.0 steals/blocks per game. Doncic has maintained his status as one of the most valuable assets in all of fantasy basketball, but despite his nightly dominance, the field is struggling to prioritize him at $11,200 in a tough spot against the Celtics.

As of this writing, Doncic is projected to be only 10.10% owned on DraftKings but has an optimal percentage of 15.40%. Although he’s in a tough spot against a really good Boston defense, Doncic is matchup-proof at this point and should be at his best tonight in a primetime matchup against the best team in the NBA.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Victor Wembanyama: San Antonio Spurs-Philadelphia 76ers

This is a bit expensive for the mid-tier, but that’s how the cookie crumbles today. Victor Wembanyama has been playing on a minutes limit for the entirety of the past month, but he has continued to be extremely productive from a DFS standpoint. There’s a lot to like about him this evening in a get-up spot against Joel Embiid and the 76ers.

Wembanyama is averaging 45.5 DraftKings points per game and has seen that number grow since being moved to center full-time. While his upside is not in question, the field isn’t overly interested in spending $8,700 on a player who likely won’t play more than 25 minutes. Despite that minutes restriction, however, Stokastic’s tools have Wembanyama optimal 11.90% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 6.20% of lineups expected to roster him, the field clearly isn’t getting to him at a high enough rate. He sits behind only Thaddeus Young as the second-best leverage play on the board, and Wembanyama is arguably the top tournament play on the entire slate.

Contrarian Value — Thaddeus Young: Memphis Grizzlies-Toronto Raptors

Speaking of Young, he’s the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,600. Young has been a staple in this article recently, and at a falling $3,600 price tag, it’s surprising that he isn’t getting a bit more love from the masses. He has found a role in the Raptors frontcourt in the aftermath of Toronto trading O.G. Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, and his price point puts him in play tonight on a slate without a ton of cheap value.

Although these numbers can change as we get news closer to lock, Young is only projected to be 6.40% owned on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 15.50%, however, the field is clearly sleeping on Young and what his price tag can do for lineup construction. He may not score a ton, but his value comes from the studs you will be able to roster with him.

Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.

Matthew Belman
Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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