NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Buying What Tobias Harris Is Selling? (January 30)

Coming off a wild Monday night slate, the NBA returns with five more games on Tuesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, including Dejounte Murray and Tobias Harris.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

Contrarian Stud — Dejounte Murray: Los Angeles Lakers-Atlanta Hawks

Dejounte Murray is questionable tonight after missing his first game of the season on Sunday due to right hamstring soreness, but after he participated in Atlanta’s shootaround, it’s reasonable to think he will suit up tonight. Murray is averaging a solid 38.8 DraftKings points per game, but the field is completely overlooking him and he currently grades out as one of the top leverage plays on the slate.

Murray is projected to be only 3.90% owned on DraftKings, but his optimal percentage of 6.70% shows why Murray is a strong leverage option. With a bunch of good guard plays at every price point tonight, it’s not completely unexpected that Murray isn’t pulling a lot of ownership, but he’s going completely overlooked despite projecting as the highest-scoring shooting guard on the slate. Although Murray might be priced appropriately for his median outcome, he has slate-breaking upside at $8,200.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Tobias Harris: Philadelphia 76ers-Golden State Warriors

Tobias Harris is the second-highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools. After missing back-to-back games due to an illness, Harris returned to the 76ers lineup last night and played an uninspiring 20 minutes despite Philadelphia playing without Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. With both Embiid and Maxey questionable again tonight, Harris stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate they should be.

Harris is currently projected to be optimal 11.80% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 6.50% of lineups expected to roster him, Harris has emerged as the clear top differentiator in the mid-tier. A ton of players are sporting questionable tags tonight, so make sure to watch the Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock to stay updated on all the latest information.

Contrarian Value — Jordan Nwora: Toronto Raptors-Chicago Bulls

Jordan Nwora is DraftKings’ top contrarian value play at $4,200. Coming to Toronto from the Pacers in the Pascal Siakam trade, Nwora played 31 minutes on Sunday en route to dropping 24 points, nine rebounds, six assists and one steal as the Raptors fell to the Hawks 126-125. While he might not be a regular in Toronto’s rotation when the Raptors are fully healthy, Nwora should continue to get run with both R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley on the sidelines.

Despite his monster performance on Sunday, the field is not buying Nwora, as only 2.20% of lineups are expected to roster him on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 5.10%, Nwora stands out as an elite differentiator without much opportunity cost. While these numbers tend to even out as the slate becomes more stable, Nwora is currently going completely overlooked on a slate without a ton of viable cheap value.

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Matthew Belman
Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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